Espiner on polls

July 9th, 2007 at 11:27 pm by David Farrar

Colin Espiner comments on the latest TVNZ poll and what he thinks National and Labour’s internal polls saying they show National ahead by 10% to 12%, which is the average of the recent public polls.

jun07polls.JPG

In fact the average of the five public polls in June has a gap of 14%, down from 17% in May..

jun07minorpolls.JPG

The Greens also appear to be developing a trend, having dropped from an average of over 9% late last year to just above 6% last month.

All this and more is in the latest monthly newsletter from Curia which will be out on late Tuesday or Wednesday. You can subscribe to it at this link.this link.

Colin has some fairly harsh views on ACT:

ACT is rating a pathetic 0.3%, just above the fringe parties like Destiny NZ (0.2%) and Libertarianz (0.1%).

Gee, that kind of support really repays the faith ACT has shown in leader Rodney Hide’s new warm and cuddly approach, doesn’t it? Ever since Hide dumped his “perkbuster” role and went on Dancing with the Stars, ACT’s poll ratings have slumped. He might be a nicer guy, but voters no longer have a reason to vote ACT.

Signing the code of conduct along with Parliament’s hand-wringers and cuddling up to Labour is just going to make things worse. Hide reasons that he wants to turn ACT into an MMP party that can work with anyone. But Parliament already has plenty of those – New Zealand First and United Future, to name but two.

ACT’s point of difference was that it was an out-and-out, ideologically pure (well, mostly) libertarian party of the Right. It was a natural coalition partner for National. Its MPs knew what it stood for and so did the public. It only ever polled 5 or 6% of the vote, but that’s still 15 times what it is polling now.

ACT founder Sir Roger Douglas, always a man who calls a spade a spade, told it like it was at the weekend, describing ACT’s new relationship with Labour as a joke. He’s right. Unless Hide takes the party back out to the Right where it belongs, he’s going to find himself as the lone MP for Epsom in 2008.

I think Colin is being a too harsh here. I share his views that trying to be just another MMP minor party won’t work well as NZ First and United Future are there already. But I don’t think one can say all of ACT’s poll problems are post DWTS. Yes ACT got 5%+ in 96, 99 and 02 but in 2005 they got under 2% partly due to Don Brash. They have not been over 2% since the election, and in terms of monthly averages their high has been 1.6% and June 2007 is 1.0%, so again one can’t say it as as simple as Rodney going back to the old perkbuster from hell.

I actually think Rodney and ACT are being brave at trying to find a way to increase their ratings. I’m not convinced their choices have been the correct ones but there is no reward without risk. I would like a strong ACT party to be part of a future National led Government. So would many in National. But the way to achieve that is out on the right where John Key has nicely left you lots of space to play in.

No tag for this post.

19 Responses to “Espiner on polls”

  1. NX () says:

    Simply amazing. John Key doesn’t need to do a Dr Brash Owera speech to ride high in the polls – all he needs to do is be John & people like him.

    Just wait till National role out some clever policy in election year. They’ve some really good minds in their cacus; Tim Gosser, Chris Finlayson, & Jonathan Coleman is proving surprising. Of course English and John are at the top of their game.

    I don’t think even a bribe will save Labour this time. Last time it was ‘interest free’ student loans… this time it’s going to be ‘interest free’ home loans… Sell the country down the toilet to stay in power!

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  2. the deity formerly known as nigel6888 () says:

    Sadly ACT is dog tucker with this Stupid Stupid gambit. Rodney is just embarrassing himself and everything ACT ever stood for – the last thing it needs to do is be a centrist party – it can’t attract voters from Labour or the Greens, so all it can do is try and cannibalise some National vote. But with what – what on earth does ACT now stand for?

    At least on the right he could carve a niche and give National a backbone which ultimately gave deniability to the harder edge of policy pronouncements. A harder right edge gives Key more room to move to accommodate and absorb the swinging middle.

    I predict National will stand a candidate in Epsom if this silliness continues. Wonder where the next party of the right will come from because without a coalition partner, National cannot win the election – hmm, wonder if the conservative Maori who are appalled by the impact of welfarism on Maoridom wing of the Maori Party will pull it off?

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  3. James () says:

    I am always amazed at the stupidity and blindness of those who post here….ACT is NOT a right wing party!Its founding principles and philosophy are NOT right wing….its Classic Liberal.ACT believe in Social liberalism as well as their staunch stance for Economic liberalism.True they haven’t always been balanced equally between the two but now that they are paying attention to the social side more by talking to the left on issues of common agreement they are getting hell for it…wtf!?

    On the old defunct Left-Right scale ACT are actually to the LEFT of National,NZF and United on socially/moral issues (and Progressives too if the BZP ban is taken into consideration…)….but they are not centrists in the accepted sense,which means taking an unprincipled, middle of the road position as United does so well and National does all too often…

    ACT still have the Economically liberal “Right” to themselves thanks to Key ….but they can also stake a place in the socially liberal territory that has been the Lefts alone up to now….smart move.Its just educating the dummies who don’t get it that will determine if it is a success.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  4. Bryce () says:

    James – you think Act are socially liberal!? Or classically liberal?! I don’t think so. Sometimes they are; sometimes they’re not. Act has always had an identity crisis when it comes to social issues. The reality is that few people know what Act stands for anymore – *especially* on social issues. Don’t forget that Act sees itself as ‘The Law and Order Party’. Hardly socially liberal!

    If you want to see how conservative and middle-of-the-road Act is, then compare it with Bob Jones’ New Zealand Party, which showed that you can be radically economically rightwing and radically socially liberal and still get 12% of the vote (even under FPP).

    The party was most well-known for its libertarian and anti-state political platform which condemned the welfare state and preached freedom from economic regulation and taxes. As opposed to the muddled and centrist economic programmes of the main parties, the New Zealand Party’s ideology was undoubtedly radical and innovative.

    Significantly, the party also had very liberal and far-reaching policies on social and moral issues – which distinguished it from new right parties in other countries that were more authoritarian or populist. The party was remarkably radical on issues of personal freedom, strongly advocating women’s right to abortion, the availability of contraception, and the legalisation of drug use and other behaviour that they labelled ‘victim-less crimes’. The party was also anti-censorship. These mostly libertarian positions on social issues dovetailed with the party’s liberal economic policies. In foreign policy, the New Zealand Party not only endorsed a nuclear-free policy that was more radical than the Labour Party’s, but they advocated a position of unarmed neutrality for New Zealand, effectively disestablishing the defence forces and officially pulling out of ANZUS. The New Zealand Party was also seen as utopian on education issues, expounding that much more money be spent. Likewise, the party was radical in favouring substantial government involvement in the arts. Act supporters – compare this to your pragmatic and centrist party and weep!

    Bryce
    http://www.liberation.org..nz

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  5. James () says:

    James – you think Act are socially liberal!? Or classically liberal?! I don’t think so. Sometimes they are; sometimes they’re not. Act has always had an identity crisis when it comes to social issues. The reality is that few people know what Act stands for anymore – *especially* on social issues. Don’t forget that Act sees itself as ‘The Law and Order Party’. Hardly socially liberal!”

    There is no conflict between Social liberalism and law and order Bryce…the former requires the latter.As long a the law is only punishing those who commit actual crimes…not vices…then there is no problem.What we have in NZ is “Socialist liberalism”…do what you like while someone else has to pick up the tab…

    I agree ACT needs to plant its flag firmly for what it actually stands for…..the Socially liberal side was very overshadowed by the Economics…but its openness to working with the Left on issues of mutual agreement is a positive sign and should be welcomed by all libz/libs….

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  6. unaha-closp () says:

    “The Greens also appear to be developing a trend, having dropped from an average of over 9% late last year to just above 6% last month.”

    The margin of error for the polling is 3.1%, the variance high to low across the 2 years does not exceed the margin of error. Is the trend real?

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  7. james cairney () says:

    “There is no conflict between Social liberalism and law and order Bryce”

    In my view there is, when ‘law and order’ is taken in the Act party context.

    I have always felt the Act party lets itself down with law and order. How, if Act are socially liberal, can Act continue to push the government over 1000 extra Police, when the Police we have now waste enormous amounts of time on trivialities that have a negative impact on societal freedoms?

    Massive Police increases are 1. bloody expensive, and 2. not necessary with a reallocation of the already massive Police spend up, and 3. incompatible with social liberty.

    And I hear nothing from Act, except ‘more Police’.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  8. stan () says:

    ffs, i am sick of hearing this classical liberal crap – it’s all philosophical debate and irrelevant except for nerds that study political science. if ACT aren’t Right wing then they don’t deserve any party votes.

    and cairney – are you an idiot or does your extent of ACT’s law and order policy knowledge mean taking out of your own memory the only thing you recall from NZ First’s law and order policy?

    - no concurrent sentences
    - life means life
    - commit the same crime thrice and automatically get the maximum penalty
    - no parole

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  9. MikeE () says:

    Providing the police aren’t punishing those for victimless crimes, how is it that law and order can’t be socially liberal?

    Punish those who hurt others, leave those alone who only hurt themselves?

    Also the NZ party wasn’t classically liberal, if it wanted to inject shitloads in the arts… thats whats known as “chardonay socialism”

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  10. gd () says:

    IMHO the future will see a shift to individual responsibility and away from state responsibility and the political labels will reflect this It will be led by Gen X and Y who the baby boomers forced into taking resoposibility for their tertiary education.Gen X and Y will be much harsher on those who wont as opposed to those who cant. The lead swingers and bludgers wont get any change from them. Gen X and Y will be much more judgmental and far less tolerant than the baby boomers were.Baby boomers who havent provided for their retirement will only get a miniminal state pension.As history shows this is simply the pendulum swinging from one side to the other.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  11. james cairney () says:

    Stan, go to the Act party website, and knock yourself out. Act are weak and non socially liberal on law and order.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  12. pdm () says:

    Act has had my party vote since MMP started based on the following:

    * Reduced Tax – ideally a flat tax.
    * Personal responsibility.
    * Less red tape
    * Reduced benefit dependency – including work for dole.
    * Law and Order – a la Sensible Sentencing Trust.
    * Education.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  13. Ross Miller () says:

    Slightly tangentially …. but an intelligent reading of poll trends would suggest there is a fair change that the election will see

    - ACT loose Epsom and be consigned to the dustbin of history.

    - Winston First out as they won’t make it past the 5% trigger.

    - UF reduced to one seat

    - Greens may make it past 5%

    - Maori Party still there in (perhaps) increased numbers

    - Whether the Progressives are represented will depend entirely on whether Anderton stands

    interesting times

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  14. gd () says:

    So Ross are we going to see almost a return to the old days of the Socalists and the Nats slugging it out and have the voters decided they dont really like MMP after all Will the Maori Party a race based apartheid legacy be all that remains of MMP.

    And does this mean that most voters are placed around the middle of the centre (using the old outdated terms) with only a small fringe element on each side.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  15. peterquixote () says:

    Green will take 6 per cent next election, and determine the Government, not Maori, not Qwinston Peters, Green, prepare you NATs farrar,
    peterquixote

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  16. Sinner () says:

    Ross is right – the Maorimander puts Labour in over the Nats unless the Nats managed to be 10% up on polling day.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  17. peterquixote () says:

    NAT plus GREEN equals Government,pq

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  18. frederico () says:

    It will be an interesting dynamic between Green and Labour come 08. Greens around the threshold and Labour trailing Nats by 7-8%. Labour will want and need every green vote to catch National.How do they play it? Bit like National and ACT last time. There seems to be a stable core vote of 46% for National. I think it’s Nationals for losing or it would take one hell of a disparate broad coalition with deals a plenty on the centre left.(Nightmare stuff)

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  19. Gooner () says:

    Who gives a f*** what Colin Espinor thinks?

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.