The Dominion Post has reviewed their 2007 predictions scored themselves out of 10 for each. Now firstly kudos to them for having the balls to make predictions, and for actually returning to them at the end of the year.
Their predictions and scores are below. I’m going to insert my own scores in though, just as even NCEA doesn’t let allow self-marking
1. “A by-election in Mangere. Irrespective of how harsh the final police report is on Phillip Field’s dealings with Thai migrants, he has in effect been abandoned by the Labour Party, which is already casting around for a replacement.”
2/10 The wheels of justice move slowly and Mr Field’s heels were dug in further than we thought. Right on the Labour Party and a replacement, though.
Agree 2/10. Could argue zero but may be more when not if.
2. “Economic Development Minister Trevor Mallard will have to wait a little longer for his promotion to finance minister. In fact he may not get it this term . . . there is a growing expectation Dr Cullen will stand again at the next election.”
10/10 Talk about on the money!
I think we can say he will probably now never get it. Agree 10/10.
3. “For the first time since 1999 National will go a whole year without leadership speculation.”
10/10 A bit cheeky really, given Mr Key had just started and looked to have the right stuff, but correct nevertheless.
Also 10/10. Labour should take note their efforts to manufacture talk of problems is not taken seriously by anyone but partisan wing-nuts.
4. “British American Tobacco’s corporate box will be a politician-free zone — or at the very least there will be none puffing cigars — after National MP Jonathan Coleman’s spot of bother there in 2006.”
Another 10/10 shoo-in? We think we are worth only 5/10 for a punt that cannot be verified.
Actually I have reason to believe MPs have still enjoyed corporate hospitality there. I’d give 3/10 for no more cigars!
5. “Helen Clark will succeed in getting cross-party support for sweeping reform of campaign funding that will end the legacy of the pledge card, the Exclusive Brethren campaign and National’s secret donations.”
6/10 Well . . . she got cross- party support, and it may end (some) of the secret donations and Brethren-type actions but . . .
Big disagree. She had cross party support and stuffed it up badly making it the most partisan issue of the year. And it legalises the pledge card, and does not get rid of secret donations. 2/10 max.
6. “Rodney Hide will find more money in the ACT party coffers after the resignation of Don Brash, but few if any extra votes.”
6/10 Right on the votes, but not sure there was that much more money coming Rodney’s way, after National soared in the polls.
5/10 for no extra votes (according to polls). I’m also not that sure about the money.
7. “Jeanette Fitzsimons will decide to stay on as Green co- leader till after the 2008 election.”
10/10 Safe as a totara in a gale that one. Full marks.
8. “The Government will announce tax cuts phased in over several years that will amount to much more than the $10 a week on average that Dr Cullen has so far signalled.”
Still waiting for precise details, but we think we deserve at least 8/10. Might recycle that one.
I’m only giving it a six out of ten. The only figure to date is $15 a week and not phased in. Also they actually cancelled a scheduled tax cut this year.
9. “NZ First MPs will start to get wobbly over their low poll rating, and speculation about their leader Winston Peters’ long-term future will start in earnest. The party will position itself closer to National.”
1/10 The odd wobble but mostly remarkable stable. Speculation about Mr Peters’ future has yet to reach white-hot intensity, while hostility to National continues.
Agree 1/10. Very hostile to National.
10. “National will stay ahead of Labour in the polls.”
10/10 John Key and his team stayed way in front.
A perfect 10
11. “The Maori Party will celebrate the creation of another Maori constituency seat, which it can target in 2008, increasing its influence.”
3/10 There was an extra seat, but it was in a general electorate after stronger than expected growth in the South Island and Auckland.
Sorry but that is a 0/10. This is a binary choice.
12. “National will move on from its ‘Labour lite’ repositioning and talk tough on health, tax, and law and order.”
7/10 On the right track. The talking tough came unstuck on health, though.
Not sure it has moved on that much. 6/10. 2008 I suspect will see more distance.
13. “United Future will struggle to find a high-profile policy once the business tax cut package is in place.”
9/10 Gordon Copeland’s spectacular exit was not the sort of profile they were looking for, wethinks.
How about “We voted for the Electoral Finance Bill before we voted against it” as their policy highlight?”
14. “Jim Anderton’s Progressives will not hold an annual party conference — because there is not really a party left to confer with.”
10/10 For a tongue-in-cheek joke!
7/10 – they did have conferences but referred to them as “meetings with members”
15. “Rakaia MP Brian Connell will work out that, even when he is on his best behaviour, there is no welcome mat at the caucus door — and then who knows what he will do . . .”
10/10 The Political Life of Brian came to its predicted end with an announcement he would not seek a seat, after Mr Key refused to reinstate him to caucus.
A good call for a 10/10.
16. “A senior Cabinet minister will surprise everyone by announcing his or her retirement before 2008.”
10/10 The judges have Steve Maharey to thank for that perfect score.
Also a sound call for a 10.
17. “Miss Clark will reshuffle her ministry toward the end of the year, promoting finance and expenditure committee chairman Shane Jones.”
10/10 Timing bang on, as was the tip of promotion for the wonder-boy from the north.
An easy 10.
18. “Immigration Minister David Cunliffe’s competence will be rewarded with more responsibilities in the Cabinet reshuffle.”
10/10 Mr C did not put a foot wrong and got his promotion.
Also a fairly easy 10.
19. “The minor parties will step up their cooperation, and demand a stronger voice on statutory bodies and in parliamentary processes than the old two-party club allows.”
8/10 They certainly worked together on a lot of issues, especially with the code of conduct, but not a great deal of reward yet.
6/10 only. They worked together on some issues but no real unified call on statutory bodies or processes.
20. “All the parties will set aside personal attacks and concentrate on policy. It will be wall-to- wall sweetness and light all year.”
Not marked due to excessive sarcasm.
We gave ourselves 145/190 — oddly, up from 142 after an “independent” audit by a rival office. Now all we have to do is pick next year’s election result . . .
I am a more miserly 127/190. But that is still 67% which isn’t bad – a solid B-
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