20 Dominion Post political predictions
December 29th, 2007 at 10:18 am by David FarrarThe Dominion Post gallery team have also made some predictions for 2008, and they look somewhat more likely than Fran’s! Here they are:
- 1. Most litigious election year ever as letter and the spirit of the contentious Electoral Finance Act is dragged through the courts.
- Margaret Wilson will announce her exit from politics
- Tim Barnett, will opt not to go on the party list and will leave Parliament.
- Labour will announce tax cuts worth about $25 a week to most taxpayers, but National will go several steps further by unveiling a programme of tax cuts.
- Jeanette Fitzsimons will wait till after the election to announce her retirement date.
- Labour will hold just two Maori seats after the 2008 election.
- Clem Simich, Richard Worth and Eric Roy will fight it out for the Speaker’s job if National wins office, but might miss out to Peter Dunne if National needs his vote.
- Another senior Cabinet minister will announce their retirement at the next election and it won’t come as much of a surprise. [DPF: King? Horomia? Cullen?]
- For the second year in a row, National will go the whole year without any leadership speculation.
- NZ First MP Brian Donnelly will finally announce his departure for a posting as high commissioner in the Cook Islands.
- Winston Peters, will fail to win back his old Tauranga seat but his party scrapes past the 5 per cent threshold.
- Peters will get another term as foreign affairs minister whichever party forms the next government.
- A scandal bubbling below the surface will be made public in 2008. [DPF: More than one I suspect]
- The economy will be the major theme of the election
- National will stand Richard Worth in Epsom again
- Michael Cullen will deliver a boring Budget that outlines tax cuts but the big bang and big bucks will be saved for the election campaign.
- Outgoing Labour MP Steve Maharey will stay on till very close to the election because Clark won’t want to risk governing with one vote fewer.
- Labour will revive its 2005 “don’t put it all at risk” campaign theme for John Key, but s unlikely to have the same bite as against Don Brash.
- The Green Party and the Maori Party will get increasingly cosy as they see the benefits of pooling their votes for more negotiating muscle.
- We can confidently predict that National will win the most votes on election night. But the vagaries of MMP (see 11 and 19 above) mean it may be weeks after the election before we know whether that will be enough for National to form a government.
They won’t get 100% right, but they should easily get at least half, probably more. Someone remind me in a year’s time to review how they did 
December 29th, 2007 at 10:41 am
There will be a staged transisition of power in Labour, which Helen will feel, impelled, rather than desirous, to enact.
Vote:December 29th, 2007 at 10:45 am
I don’t see that the dom are too far off with most of these. Especially 20. When having to rely on winnie the pooh – I would not trust him as far as I could throw him.
He has said he will negotiate first with the party with the most votes – but that is only negotiation isn’t it? I hate MMP for exactly this reason.
Vote:December 29th, 2007 at 10:49 am
And # 26 on the list of the best things about Aust. is……you will never have heard of 90% of the non entities on the above list.
Vote:There is a god.
December 29th, 2007 at 11:30 am
No #11 no way
Vote:Winnies’ toast
December 29th, 2007 at 11:35 am
No# 13 . How appropriate Number 13 , the devils number . Maybe 2008 will be the year of the scandal that will hand the reins of power to National after a total collapse of the incumbent government. Oh, payback is sweet, what a year looming, sit back and watch Humpty Dumpty fall and all the Queen’s horses couldn’t put Aunty Helen back together again.
“Bring it on”
Vote:December 29th, 2007 at 11:46 am
One area in which the DomPost is 100% wrong is in todays Editorial (paper edition) which states:
`………..and that Labour’s campaign gurus won’t be getting taxpayers to fund a pledge card this time round’.
How thick are their Editorial writers that they do not understand why the EFB and the retrospective legislation were created and passed. Mind you the pledge card costs will be minute when compared to Labour’s other manipulation and use of taxpayers money in 2008.
Vote:December 29th, 2007 at 11:54 am
Good sport of them to out up last year’s predictions in yesterday’s paper. They didn’t do to badly.
Vote:December 29th, 2007 at 12:07 pm
Well they won’t: Labour wouldn’t dare issue a pledge card this time round.
Vote:December 29th, 2007 at 12:12 pm
Spam
Labour will risk anything and everything to grab (steal) a fourth term as this lot have already shown.
Vote:December 29th, 2007 at 12:13 pm
That is rather sad spam. I am saddened that we will not be able to put another pledge card on our dart boards, cause my old one is very holed.
Vote:December 29th, 2007 at 12:19 pm
Dick4J. What makes you think the scandal will be Labours’
Vote:You may live in hope, but what makes you think that National is so clean.
Remember, People who live in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones.
December 29th, 2007 at 12:26 pm
John Dulley;
I think National have nothing to fear with the probability that sensational Liarbore skeletons may be dragged from the dark closet for inspection by the voter. Really good chance .
Nothing better than the master of deception put on the spot,remembering that the truth is alien to them . In fact , truth is light .
Vote:December 29th, 2007 at 12:34 pm
Fran’s been reading Kiwiblog…..the information source for discerning denialists
She says …..”More prominent scientists will dispute the extent of the man-made global warming scenario. Four hundred scientists, many of them current and former participants in the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, have already criticised claims by the panel and former US Vice-President Al Gore.
A minority report issued by the Senate environment and public works committee lists the scientists by name, country and academic/institutional affiliation and features their words, biographies and weblinks to their peer-reviewed studies and original source materials gathered in 2007.
In New Zealand, rational scientists will still be demonised by Government and some business organisations.”
Vote:December 29th, 2007 at 12:38 pm
Spam
Of course Labour will issue another pledge card. They have corruptly passed legislation so they can say it is legal this time.
What worries me more than the pledge card is the amount of other, previously illegal, taxpayer money they will spend.
Vote:December 29th, 2007 at 1:01 pm
Very interesting predictions.
John Dalley is right – why do people assume the scandal will lie around the Labour camp.
It is National who are in such an uncomfortable situation internally- enough said.
I believe that the Greens will do well in the next election and will be one party deciding who is going to govern – They will not go with National, even if the Maori party do.
Vote:December 29th, 2007 at 1:05 pm
“John Dalley is right – why do people assume the scandal will lie around the Labour camp.”
Joke of the century James , oh I can’t wait for whats coming . I am so excited I can hardly direct my darts .
Vote:December 29th, 2007 at 1:12 pm
“In New Zealand, rational scientists will still be demonised by Government and some business organisations.”
How exactly are scientists that agree that climate change is here and dangerous ultimately to all life in one way or another irrational?
Just because some of the scientists who support the denialist viewpoint are paid to cast doubt on the credibility of climate change, it doesn’t mean that all scientists are paid to express a political viewpoint.
The religious right and its backers hate science because it shows up their standpoint, if not beliefs as shambolic. Yet they have no qualms in expressing admiration of the military applications of technology.
Vote:December 29th, 2007 at 1:13 pm
tut jamie, you are supposed to pretend you didnt know when the next labour party black op comes out, now you’ve gone and spoiled it!
so young, so much to learn about the beloved party…
Vote:December 29th, 2007 at 1:15 pm
D4J – Sort out your own scandals mate. Maybe the scandal might be within the Republic party of NZ – I hear they are stupid enough to have you as their southern rep.
What a joke – joke of the century for me.
Vote:December 29th, 2007 at 1:21 pm
Why thank you James, at least I made you laugh .
Policy parrot has all the trade marks of a very bitter and disturbed individual who detests Christianity and criticism of Helen Klark ?
Anybody can put two and two together and you get PD .
Vote:December 29th, 2007 at 1:24 pm
D4J has all the trade marks of a bitter right wing fascist, who is pro violence and anti-children.
He lives in his own world and occasionally comes out – whether he be positive or negative. Most of the time he is grumpy, deranged and twisted.
Anybody can put the seven together and you get Peter Burns of Christchurch.
Vote:December 29th, 2007 at 1:26 pm
Excuse the personal politics. My tourettes, it’s really bad today.
Vote:December 29th, 2007 at 1:27 pm
“who is pro violence and anti-children.”
David F , surely this is going over the top, or is James Creep the exception on here? I have had a f##king guts full of this shit !!
Vote:December 29th, 2007 at 1:29 pm
New Zealand First will not go with a party that wants to sell off SOEs.
So why do people think he is going to go and form a coalition with National?
National are going to do exactly what they are against – The sale of state owned assets.
Vote:December 29th, 2007 at 1:30 pm
D4J – You can say whatever you like and expect everyone else to digest it and when somebody says something against you, you turn into a freak.
Please excuse me – I see double standards.
Vote:December 29th, 2007 at 1:33 pm
What is so special about Richard Worth standing in Epsom?
Vote:December 29th, 2007 at 1:35 pm
“who is pro violence and anti-children.”
Is libelous. Ask any lawyer James Sleep . Your time is coming boy. Bye -bye.
Vote:December 29th, 2007 at 2:01 pm
Awww D4J you poor poor child. You really need a real lawyer – not your hand. ok
Vote:December 29th, 2007 at 2:04 pm
James S:
Search me, If I were Rodney H I’d be grinning from ear to ear at the thought of having him for an opponent again.
Worth doesn’t make many mistakes but doesn’t grab any positive attention for himself either. Leads me to the strong suspicion that by picking Worth National want to hand Epsom to Rodney.
Vote:December 29th, 2007 at 2:09 pm
I agree Lindsay.
Because him getting a seat will mean if ACT do not get above 5% in party vote then they will still have Hide there to offer some support.
National can rely on the list – where as ACT cannot.
Vote:December 29th, 2007 at 3:37 pm
D4J the Denier.
Vote:So much hope on your part that National has no Skeletons in the cupboard.
Why do you think National is so clean. I don’t think so and i would suggest you are going to find that out a bit closer to the elections that National has a black sheep or two in the closet.
I,m looking forward to next year when some of those shep come craping in your front yard.
December 29th, 2007 at 3:50 pm
JD, stop this untruthful labelling exercise, it is yourself and those who are brainwashed the same way who are “deniers”. Climate changes, on all scales, at all times, and always has. It is the true deniers who want to claim that climate is unchanging, unless humans change it. So, get a life, or do you want to persist in claiming that the earth has always had a “good” climate until humans got “involved” ? No droughts, no fires, no storms (or just a few), and no temperature variations ?
Why don’t you follow a challenge issued elsewhere on Kiwiblog, try to find the source behind the mantra that 2 x CO2 = 2.5 degrees C change. The IPCC FAR uses that, but doesn’t seem able to come up with a source, just a guesstimate.
Vote:December 29th, 2007 at 5:36 pm
The common link here is a belief in fairy tales.
Vote:December 29th, 2007 at 5:57 pm
“Another senior Cabinet minister will announce their retirement at the next election and it won’t come as much of a surprise. [DPF: King? Horomia? Cullen?]”
Surely this depends on who wins the election…
If Labour loses then four or five senior retirements (e.g. the PM herself) wouldn’t suprise. If Labour wins, then a PM retirement at the next election would surprise (not saying she’d necessarily seek a fifth term as PM, but she wouldn’t want to be a lame duck from the beginning of the 4th.
Vote:December 29th, 2007 at 7:20 pm
Graeme I have long been of the belief that Clark will not last out the next parliament, either as PM or as leader of the Opposition.
Vote:My Theory includes the idea that Maharey was touted and asked to be heir apparent, but bowed out because he did not want the poisoned chalice of leader of the opposition. Ditto Mallard who is in the process of committing political seppuku.
That leaves Goff as heir – (Cullen -yeah right! hardly an electable choice) – and I don’t think Helen could stomach that scenario of Goff in the limelight, and want to be a support act in it for very long given that Goff is Moore’s ‘boy’, and it will all be a too replete with poetic justice for her taste…
December 29th, 2007 at 9:12 pm
“I,m looking forward to next year when some of those shep come craping in your front yard.”
Another product of NCEA.
Vote:December 29th, 2007 at 10:28 pm
That National has skeletons in the cupboard is undoubted and no doubt some will be outed, but will Labour be bale to stop their warehouse of skeletons from escaping. I doubt. Whose a poet and din’t know it – just joking about the poet bit. Happy new year to all and I mean all.
Vote:December 29th, 2007 at 10:58 pm
“I,m looking forward to next year when some of those shep come craping in your front yard.”
Well spotted Adolf.
40 years of turgid social conditioning by Marxism-inculcated Secular-Progressives has created a generation and a half who not only can’t spell right and wrong, they don’t know the difference between the two either.
…And James Sleep.. tread carefully; if you want to play lumberjack, you’ve got to be prepared to carry your end of the log – if you are going to insinuate d4j is a paedophile and child abuser, then don’t whine if someone gives it right back atcha.
Vote:December 29th, 2007 at 11:18 pm
DPF off topic I know but I too have watched the exchanges between D4J and James Sleep over the last few days with disbelief and proffer the following advice for both:
D4J – I assume you are a mature man who somewhere along the line has had a raw deal in respect of your children following a marriage/partnership break up. Some of your comments on various matters over the last year have left me bewildered but you do youself no favours in the acrimonious exchanges you have with had with James Sleep over the last 2 or 3 days. Give it away.
James Sleep – if in fact you are 16 get a life and to assist you I suggest you do the following:
* change schools to one with Cambridge Exams or similar to improve your grammar and syntax. At present as others have pointed out you are a poor example of an NCEA student.
* take up a team sport so that you learn to lose – cricket or lawn bowls in summer, soccer or badminton if rugby is not your thing in Winter.
* join a youth club and mix with people of your own age.
* remember you are still a boy so respect your elders.
Finally to both of you there as an old saying which I am sure you both will have heard – If you cannot say something good about someone don’t say anything at all!!!
Good night
Vote:December 30th, 2007 at 9:55 am
Sage advice from pdm.
Vote:December 30th, 2007 at 12:08 pm
Peter Dunne cannot be both speaker and leader of a party. So number 7 is effectively already disproven. (Unless the standing orders have been updated and I didn’t notice.)
Vote: