General Debate 29 August 2026

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CJames

People don’t realise how close NZ came to a nationwide blackout last Sunday when it looks like lightning took out a big substation in Southland, tripping Manapouri and a lot of power consumers including half of Tiwai. The official notice of the event is on the Transpower SO website here: https://www.transpower.co.nz/system-operator/notices-and-reporting/excursion-notices as the frequency excursion is couched in very minimalist terms. No indication yet as to whether there will be a significant report on the event but I suspect not.

The event must have given a real shock to those running the grid. About 14% of the nation’s generation was gone in an instant, but fortunately, there was about 10% of the load lost at same time to help counterbalance it. Luckily, the situation was kept from disaster by the inertia of the synchronous units on the grid at the time, mainly steam turbines in the North Island. As is usual, wind and solar provided no support and the batteries were only minor contributors.

It is events like this that show why the System Operator has set minimum inertia limits on the grid, keeping even gas or coal units on while shutting down the unreliables. The policy is to keep the system secure for protection against these types of events. Wind and solar can’t do that despite what their proponents say. Batteries can do some of it, but they have to be kept charged up so can’t be used for peak lopping – they can’t do both.

With the new solar farms coming on, the risk of a nationwide blackout increases. Shutting Huntly down to use a wind or solar farm’s uncontrollable output is not a prudent practice. On a minute by minute basis, the solar farms can have a greater than 50% change in output on the frequent cloudy days like that Sunday. Their rapidly changing variability makes control of voltage and frequency very hard, and expensive. It also damages other assets on the grid (plus distribution networks), expending their life so they will need premature replacement. Conventional plant is limited to a fraction of this generation fluctuation without risking being fined, but the unreliables get a free pass. Even Transpower has noted the variability of solar generation on a day to day basis – over 50% variation and that is just the maximums. It is worse when one dives into the details.

Our brave new world could end up very dark – the Iberian experience. And the politicians can’t claim that they weren’t warned this could happen. Though when it does occur, we will be Nett Zero which I don’t think even our Watermelons will like.
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August 29, 2026 8:02am
- lastmanstanding
  
  A democratically elected Government has the right to set policy and expect the Public Service to carry this out. In the case of Labout led Governments this is the case. Not so in the case of National led Governments. Why? Well like the MSM the senior Public Service is made up of woke lanyard wearing Lefties. As we have seen this term these Sir Humphries led by the chief Sir Humphrey Roche have done all they can to thwart the Government.
  I say its time of root and branch reform. Scrap the Public Service Commission. Ministers to hire and fire the CEOs and oversee the appointment of the next tier that reports to the CEO. Ministers to work inside their Department with one Minister to one Department not like the shambles with MBIE where 20 plus Ministers are involved. The days of political neutrality of the Public Service ended several decades ago and many of us could see this. The reaction by the Priviledges Committee last week showed either they are out of touch with reality or unwilling to face reality.
  
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  August 29, 2026 8:46am
- peterwn
  
  The best thing the politicians can do is not to interfere in the workings of the industry, especially any move that breaks the generation to retail link.
  The substation CJ referred to (I assume North Makarewa) was designed in two halves so something like lightning would only knock out one half which seemed to be the case here. So in this instance the system did what it was designed to do with some generation and load being sacrificed to keep the rest going. The smelter operator would rather lose some power (for no more than two hours) than see the SI system collapse.
  The industry understands the inerta issues although may not be moving on this as much as some people would like. The problem as I see it is if the Government brute force regulates on this and other matters such as requiring extra generation reserves it has to be prepared to put its money where its mouth is. The whole idea behind the Rogernomics reforms was to transfer electricity risks from the Crown to the industry stakeholders as they could manage the risks more efficiently and more economically. Left wingers and consumer advocates (including major consumers) would like to see the risk be moved back towards the Crown and would like to see the taxpayer subsidise or at least underwrite the industry.
  There is another little thing playing out. The ‘fifth’ Huntly machine is a large ‘combined cycle’ unit designed to operate on gas which is in short supply. Being ‘combined cycle’ it is more efficient than the Huntly coal fired units. That unit is potentially useful if there is a shortfall in renewables but can only be used sparingly. Genesis has laid down the gauntlet that if it is to remain available to the system then those who potentially benefit (the other gentailers and the system) need to underwrite its continued existence. This is especially as there are long wait times for similar plants around the world and Genesis could get a good second hand price for it if Genesis puts it on the market. Genesis has got pretty commercially smart by putting the EA and other industry players over a barrel to ensure its shareholders (including Nicola at 51%) benefit from the value of its assets.
  
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  August 29, 2026 9:05am
Yvette

Why the Maori Party may not submit a Party List

Electoral Act 1993:
Section 191 deals with the allocation of list seats using the Sainte-Laguë calculation. Subsection 191(8) says that where an elected electorate member is:
– an independent, or
– a member of a political party that did not appear on the party-vote list,
the Electoral Commission must deduct that person from 120 when determining the number of seats available in the Sainte-Laguë allocation.

Suppose, hypothetically:
– Te Pāti Māori wins all 7 Māori electorates;
– it submits no party list and therefore does not participate in the party-vote allocation;
– the seven successful electorate candidates are members of Te Pāti Māori.
Then those seven MPs fall into the category contemplated by s191(8).
The Sainte-Laguë calculation would therefore effectively be made against:
120 − 7 = 113 seats
rather than 120.

The bit I cannot quite understand, but include in case anyone else does:
If seven electorate MPs belonged to a party that did not submit a party list, the Sainte-Laguë allocation would stop at the 113th highest quotient rather than the 120th. The seven quotients which would otherwise have occupied positions 114–120 would not receive seats. Which parties lost those seats could not be known until the party votes were counted.

Sainte-Laguë is a mathematical queue: parties take turns receiving seats according to the strength of their party vote, with the calculation becoming progressively harder each time a party receives another seat.

Normally the queue runs until 120 seats have been filled. If seven electorate MPs belong to parties outside the party-list system, the queue stops at 113, because those seven seats have already been filled.

So if the Maori Party doesn’t submit a Party List, what does that do to the allocation of seats for other parties?

Over-hang seats are a solution when certain result circumstances occur.
However if those circumstances are engineered as a party agenda it is something else:
a tack-on to the general mantra – “No Mana For Maori”

________________
“No mana for Māori” is a political phrase used in New Zealand to criticize political parties or arrangements that fail to respect or empower Māori interests.The phrase was famously used in a February 2017 Scoop News statement by politician Kelvin Davis targeting the then Māori Party’s relationship with the National Party. It argues that aligning with certain political agendas strips away the dignity, influence, and self-determination (mana) of Māori communities.
https://m.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA1702/S00255/no-mana-for-maori.htm

And, as has been suggested before, Kelvin Davis besmirched his own people for supposed simple political gain – not unlike the Maori Party, through President John Tamihere, saying everything in TPM is tikanga-based, is not really endearing ancient Maori wisdom and ways to New Zealanders’ respect.

AI and can make mistakes. Yvette is not AI, but can also make mistakes. Check it out
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August 29, 2026 8:04am
CJames

I see Trump in his latest self-destructive petulance against his neighbours has renamed Lake Ontario, like he did for Gulf of Mexico. We can be grateful that he didn’t try to name them after himself (yet). I can’t see the new names sticking and in three years time, they will quietly revert to the original.
Before the literati get too far up on their high horses about it, where do they stand on the renaming of Mount Egmont, our country New Zealand, or the spelling of its towns and cities? Or is that, as always when their side does it, different?
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August 29, 2026 8:07am
- artemisia
  
  Also street names changed. Waripori Street in Welly is now Te Wharepouri Street.
  
  The proposal to change Petone to Pita-One was declined by Minister Penk. Well done that man.
  
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  August 29, 2026 8:16am
- mike
  
  So, you’d be okay with Lake America reverting to Lake Ontario, but have a problem with Egmont reverting to Taranaki?
  
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  August 29, 2026 8:17am
  - Cassandra
    
    The problem, mike, is what we see in Auckland where the Queen Street rail station is named after a subterranean river which nobody has ever heard of and even less can pronounce. Egmont was perfectly okay for a hundred years. Leave it alone. Trump can do what he likes. It has no effect on us. He’ll be history in January 2028. Or earlier.
    
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    August 29, 2026 8:23am
    - mike
      
      Egmont was ok for you, you mean.
      
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      August 29, 2026 9:14am
- Cassandra
  
  Cartoon in The Times this morning has T renaming Niagara after himself. Subtle. Say it out loud.
  
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  August 29, 2026 8:18am
- Ghost
  
  You can see the difference between a country that has full legal rights to a piece of land changing the name, and a demented bully trying to change the name of a lake that less than 50% is in their territory. I’d also think most here are against New Zealand’s name change. The job of president is not for a bully who is going around destroying the relations with his allies. The next elected president will have one hell of a mess to clean up. If biden did this, people would be outraged, but some here just drop to their knees in front of trump, no matter what he does.
  
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  August 29, 2026 8:26am
  - Cassandra
    
    Ghost: best to look at the bigger picture. Getting NATO to wake up is a biggie. “Take Trump seriously but not literally “. Rubio will be a great president.
    
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    August 29, 2026 8:41am
- MCōs
  
  News flash in the NYT
  “Trump Administration Live Updates: Proposal Would Give Part of Yosemite to a Developer”
  
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  August 29, 2026 8:57am
artemisia

Herald today. Labour is promising to invest more than $20 million a year in a dedicated trades training scheme for Maori if elected in November. … Labour’s scheme would include a contestable, grant-based fund for Maori providers who would then design their own training based on the demand for skills from local employers. The party expects up to 3000 Maori to benefit each year from the scheme.

That sounds like about $7k a year for each attendee. Would I be correct to assume that at least initially the funding will go to create employment for those discussing skills needed and then designing culturally relevant courses located in Maori premises? And that attendees will continue on Jobseeker?

Apparently this is necessary as part-Maori have twice the unemployed rate. Labour leader Chris Hipkins said “too many Maori” were missing out on the security, better pay and opportunities that came with skilled work.

Has Labour asked why this is the case? And exactly what outcome they expect. And perhaps asked themselves whether that $20 mill a year might be better in educating part-Maori parents in why their part-Maori offspring should show up to school.

Alternatively. A few days ago there was a lengthy RNZ article about shortage of plumbers, gasfitters and drainlayers, and that this will get worse as despite demand for apprenticeships few employers offer them. Not financially worth it to them. Probably some other trades are in the same situation. Does Labour know? What say that $7000 a year per is offered to businesses willing and able to take on apprentices with an additional subsidy, regardless of race, using training on and off job actually already available. Because the policy Labour proposes is a $20 mill a year grifting wonderfulness opportunity. And that may well be the carefully unstated purpose.
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August 29, 2026 8:07am
- Cassandra
  
  “Show up at school”. Nailed it. With lunch.
  
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  August 29, 2026 8:25am
Simon

South Africa bench looks strong. Not sure how NZ counters. NZ needs to be up by a bit early in second half.
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August 29, 2026 8:54am

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