Halfway to a recession?

June 18th, 2008 at 2:43 pm by David Farrar

Dr Cullen has told the Finance and Expenditure that he beleives the economy shrank in the first quarter of 2008. NZPA reports:

Dr Cullen told the finance select committee today that economic data since the May budget was far more gloomy than Treasury predicted.

“It is now quite clear that the quarterly figure for the first quarter (of the 2008 year) almost seems inevitably to be negative,” Dr Cullen said.

A recession is negative growth over two quarters, so if this is true then the June 2008 GDP figures may put NZ into recession. The March 08 figures are out on 27 June so the June 08 figures should be out at the end of September – likely to be the beginning of the election campaign.

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30 Responses to “Halfway to a recession?”

  1. gd (1,780 comments) says:

    Oh dear heading into an election campaign with ones economy in recession does not look good for an economic genius of the stature of Dr Cullen

    I know Clark and Cullen will declare the Gregorian calendar no longer the standard measure of time in NZ and therefore that by this definition the economy is not in recession.

    Brill !!!!!!!

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  2. sonic (1,995 comments) says:

    gd seems happy about a recession, perhaps this is the sense of humour we have been waiting to see, giggling about people losing their jobs, chortling at home repossessions, chortling over businesses going bankrupt.

    Another triumph for the free markey system you love so well eh gd?

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  3. emmess (1,398 comments) says:

    The only triumph is the crushing of the aspirations of the New Zealand people under the jackboot of Clarkist socialism

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  4. gd (1,780 comments) says:

    sonic NO mate Gutted that your Socialist morons have squandered the chance to have our society all of it better off .

    I could list all the reasons here but they would take too much space. So I will just list the top 5

    1. Cut the top income rate the company rate and the trust income rate to 30% in 2004 when they had the opportunity.

    2. Cap the increase in civil servants in core departments to 1999 levels.

    3.Use the increased taxes from #1 and the savings from #2 to increase the numbers and the pay of the police nurses and teachers from 2004.

    4. Scrape the OCR as the failed experiment it is in trying to hold back the tide.

    5. Only allow in immigrants who actually have the skills we need and the ability to and desire to intergrete into our society.

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  5. sonic (1,995 comments) says:

    GD, the whole world is going into recession, while I admire your consistancy, none of the above is going to help much with oil heading towards $200 a barrel.

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  6. dad4justice (6,594 comments) says:

    sonic, even Scotland the land that kicked you out is in trouble.

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  7. philu (12,989 comments) says:

    as i’ve been saying for some time..

    ..this is just the beginning..

    i mean..the big retailers haven’t even started falling over yet..eh..?

    and don’t forget..the sub-prime thingy in america won’t be peaking untill the end of next year..

    buckle up..!

    it’s gonna be a long rough ride..

    phil(whoar.co.nz)

    and yeah..that dipshit gd won’t be laughing for very long..

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  8. philu (12,989 comments) says:

    and emmess is just barking..and has never seemed to move past the shouting slogans stage..

    feckin’ moron..

    phil(whoar.co.nz)

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  9. getstaffed (8,040 comments) says:

    I simply don’t trust anything that comes out of Cullen supercilious mouth. He’s well known for telling treasury what he wants to hear and if anything else slips past his gatekeepers then the public are simply hearing ‘ideological burps’. If Cullen said things are worse than they really are, it will be to have a good news rabbit to parade closer to election time.

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  10. emmess (1,398 comments) says:

    Philu, you obviously haven’t read very many of my posts
    And I’ll expect you at the next left wing protest march telling off people for shouting slogans

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  11. OECD rank 22 kiwi (2,760 comments) says:

    You reap what you sow.

    The year of bad news continues. So much for being “relentlessly positive”. Cullen isn’t even following his own party’s script. Labour really are stuffed. The silver lining in the dark storm clouds ahead is that Labour are going to be at the sharp end of a massive electoral defeat this October/November. Serves them right. That’s what they get for following the failed ideology of socialism. It’s now a definite lock for John Key as Prime Minister later this year. It will be Labour supporters that suffer the most as a result of the forth coming recession.

    Fair society? You bet! :-)

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  12. expat (4,050 comments) says:

    philu is now the oracle. key and english will be beating down his door.

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  13. dad4justice (6,594 comments) says:

    Lets hope that Batman and Robin have good breathing masks on, as the cannabis fumes can kill a sparrow at a 100 metres.

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  14. reid (16,719 comments) says:

    Well a lot of people predicted this but so what? We’re in it now so what are the issues and what’s the solution?

    It’s interesting isn’t it that we’re now seeing another bubble in the food, oil and in many countries, water prices? I mean coming just after the dot-bomb bubble and then the real-estate bubble?

    As everyone knows the theoretical $700 trillion derivatives issue is the Damocles Sword hanging over the whole mess and since the market is driven by confidence which is showing signs of waning that’s rather dangerous. Know what a trillion is? If you put aside a million dollars every day since the birth of Jesus Christ, you still wouldn’t have a trillion dollars. I recall it’s around 700, it may less than, but the point is it’s at least 5-600 – trillion – USD.

    We could consider becoming a leading arms exporter because I can see the market may be about to boom there. Heard of Metalstorm? Hope you got shares in that.

    There is however no reason why this issue needs to stop the rising Asian and Russian markets. They are far enough separated from London and NY financial connections as to be immune. The Europeans are not so fortunate. Sure Asia and Russia will lose lucrative markets but not totally and they can be replaced, over time. That’s in my view why we need to rapidly switch our focus toward those fellow travelers.

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  15. OECD rank 22 kiwi (2,760 comments) says:

    Maybe when Cullen caves in to Australian demands for an open investment environment between New Zealand and Australia with no political interference then the New Zealand economy might be lifted out of recession.

    Oh, is that more bad news for Labour as it made Foreign investment an election issue and now it appears to be surrendering the initiative to Australia? What a shame.

    A bit academic anyway, what can Cullen possibly achieve in the four months he has left remaining in the job? Sabotage yes, survival no.

    Labour is already defeated. Now we’re just deciding the margin!

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  16. milo (153 comments) says:

    Sonic said GD, the whole world is going into recession

    That is an untruth. Again. If you believe it Sonic, please offer some evidence of negative first quarter GDP growth from our major trading partners.

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  17. OECD rank 22 kiwi (2,760 comments) says:

    Have to agree with Milo. Even the USA isn’t currently in recession. All economic analysis points to the New Zealand economy being a dog. The projections that I’ve seen show it underperforming severely compared to its main trading partners.

    Not very surprising though as you would be hard pressed to point to what New Zealand actually produces. Only the Dairy industry keeps the country afloat. Strangely “investing” in the New Zealand residential property market hasn’t delivered the hoped for economic nirvana but instead an economic hangover for which New Zealanders will be paying for sometime to come. Not that residential property is a productive asset.

    Everyone pays the fiddler in the end. :-)

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  18. Lee C (2,720 comments) says:

    I don’t know why you are all so hard on Cullen, after all, hasn’t he delivered us a society in which no one need fear having tho face the spectre of hard work as a means of getting ahead, if one so chooses?

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  19. expat (4,050 comments) says:

    Oh come on, the world is heading into a commodity inflation lead depression. Haven’t you spotted the global housing slump, energy inflation, food inflation etc. Just wait until fuel and energy costs really kick in later this year.

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  20. philu (12,989 comments) says:

    xpat said…

    “..philu is now the oracle. key and english will be beating down his door..”

    no..not an ‘oracle’..just have been reasonably diligent at passing on the information..that is out there..

    as my archives show..my first sub-prime story was in january 2007..

    ..and i have been tracking it/’warning’ since then..

    our mainstream media here first mentioned subprime just before last christmas..

    ..i noted on national radio the other day..jim mora expressing his surprise at how ‘sudden’ all this was/is..

    it depends where you get your news/information from..jim..

    http://whoar.co.nz/?s=sub-prime&paged=2

    phil(whoar.co.nz)

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  21. expat (4,050 comments) says:

    fair call.

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  22. emmess (1,398 comments) says:

    Only Portugal and Canada from this list of country’s which have announced Quarter 1 growth rates are negative
    http://www.economist.com/markets/indicators/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11543621

    How would that sound as a slogan at a protest march Phil?

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  23. philu (12,989 comments) says:

    and your comment is the equivalent of…”no..i don’t think it’s an iceberg..!’

    phil(whoar.co.nz)

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  24. getstaffed (8,040 comments) says:

    philu – well done on the sub-prime thing. an ice-berg indeed. and it’s amusing to see the MSM so slow in picking it all up. so tell me, what are you personally doing about it? I note that your personal productivity/contribution to our domestic economy is negative (ie you choose to draw welfare when you are arguably capable of work)… to keep the analogy going, that has you sitting on a deck-chair, downing a drink supplied by someone else and hollering “iceberg”, while others operate the Titanics engine and steerage.

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  25. labrator (1,851 comments) says:

    To keep the analogy really going, he’d be sitting on the foredeck of the Titanics tender being towed behind with a quick release rope. He’s not really on the ship because then he’d have to do something to get off.

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  26. philu (12,989 comments) says:

    i am but a lowly cabin-boy/lookout..

    only able to go ‘oi..!..look out..!’

    ..it is the officers who are ignoring/ostrich-heading..about what we face..

    phil(whoar.co.nz)

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  27. OECD rank 22 kiwi (2,760 comments) says:

    Isn’t Philu busy making ice cubes, courtesy of a taxpayer funded fridge, then throwing them about the deck of the Titanic with reckless abandon before prostrating himself on the said decks before the good and the decent saying “Woe is me”?

    The devil makes work for idle hands.

    Your tax dollars working hard. ;-)

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  28. philu (12,989 comments) says:

    having a wee ‘stream of (un)conciousness’ there..?

    oecd..?

    phil(whoar.co.nz)

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  29. expat (4,050 comments) says:

    master bates and seaman salty

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  30. RRM (10,099 comments) says:

    I fancy you’re thinking of Old Seaman Staines…?

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