May Public Polls
June 6th, 2008 at 12:11 pm by David FarrarThe monthly polling newsletter will be out over the weekend. You can subscribe to the full newsletter here.
There were seven public polls in May 2008, and the average of them shows a distinct trend. Labour have dropped almost 3%, with National, NZ First and the Greens all making gains.
Of course it is not just a National vs Labour race, but the projected seats per bloc also show a trend. The CL bloc actually led until March 2007.
Another interesting graph is this one done by Therese Arseneau, a political science fellow at Canterbury University, using the One News Colmar Brunton results:
Therese has gone back to 2002, which was a low point for National. The graph does show a very clear trend over the last six years, when you iron out the monthly highs and lows. She comments:
The trends are striking. National’s vote has been growing, on average, by just under half a percentage point (.46%) per month since 2002. At the same time, Labour’s support has been dropping by just under a quarter of a percentage point (.23%) per month.
These trends have been amazingly consistent and strong, particularly for National. Don Brash’s Orewa speech did seem to alter them for a time, sparking a boost for National (and dip for Labour) in early 2004. This disruption was not sustained and within months of the speech, support for both National and Labour had reverted back to their steady procession along the trend lines.
The trend has also been consistent through three successive National leaders. There was a spike after John Key replaced Don Brash as leader but again, the growth in National support settled back to the trend line.
This suggests that neither event on its own was decisive to National’s renaissance. Instead, for six years now National has been heading towards victory and Labour towards defeat.
Long-term trends are the hardest ones to turn around. A massive rise in the polls can just as quickly reverse. The slow steady rise or fall is far more desirable or undesirable depending on which you are facing.
Tags: Polls, Therese Arseneau
June 6th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
Readers Digest version: Labour screwed, making for the lifeboats.
For people that Winston doesn’t want to vote for them: You party is suffering from extreme “deferred success” chronic.
Vote:June 6th, 2008 at 12:39 pm
Interesting.
DPF why only graph the decided vote why not include the undecided. I know the media don’t like reporting it because a chorus sets up about it but still in all it can be relevant.
On US polling check out fivethirtyeight.com its not bad.
[DPF: The full report lists the undecided vote whenever it is known. Sadly most polling companies do not report the undecided vote so one can not average it out. Roy Morgan used to but stopped a few weeks ago. CB report it.]
Vote:June 6th, 2008 at 12:42 pm
Arseneau always has something interesting to say.
Vote:June 6th, 2008 at 12:56 pm
You didn’t mention the Roy Morgan Poll, David.
Vote:Though I guess you included it in your poll of polls.
It came out yesterday.
Like the others last weekend, Roy Morgan showed a gowing lead for National- now 18.5%.
Liarbour particularly slumped in Auckland- down 7% or so to 27%.
And National is well up to somewhere in the mid-50s.
Confidence in the economy and the government is at a ‘record low’ says the poll and a majority say New Zealand is heading in the wrong direction.
http://www.nominister.blogspot.com has full details.
Of course, posting this on top of your poll-of-polls and the long-term TVNZ poll, just might have been a little insensitive to the lefties, rubbing their red noses in it.
But if they feel glum.
And the rest of us can feel glum over the state of the economy, and the mess National will have to clear up once in office, then pop over to No Minister and enjoy Friday Frolics.
We poke a lot of fun at the US elections, as well as our good friends Militant Islam and Judith Tizard, which might bring a smile or two.
June 6th, 2008 at 12:56 pm
The long term trend is a rogue. A rogue I tell you… Meanwhile a convoy of trucks carrying whitewash and paper shredders has caused a snarl up on the Rimutaka hill.
Vote:June 6th, 2008 at 12:59 pm
If Arsenau’s conclusions are correct it seems to imply that Don Brash’s resignation was, if not wrong, not necessary to improve National’s electoral performance.
Vote:June 6th, 2008 at 1:04 pm
January 07 – the polls were close together and The Standard started posting bile about John Key…..
Funny thing is they (the standard) keep digging in deeper and denigrating harder and the polls keep getting worse. Go the standard.
Vote:June 6th, 2008 at 1:05 pm
And they avoid discussion of the polls like the plague.
Vote:June 6th, 2008 at 1:13 pm
The Standard appear to be rather quiet about the polls at the moment.
Vote:June 6th, 2008 at 1:15 pm
pushme: “If Arsenau’s conclusions are correct it seems to imply that Don Brash’s resignation was, if not wrong, not necessary to improve National’s electoral performance.”
Not really. Brash’s resignation may have facilitated the continued increase in support, which may have otherwise stalled with his continuation in the leadership, given that he was somewhat discredited on a number of fronts by the time he left. It’s not just a matter of the growing unpopularity of the Labour Party pushing the National Party up in the polls, as I thought that you would have recognised before anyone else (push factor, geddit).
Vote:June 6th, 2008 at 1:16 pm
Every poll seems to to be featured at The S. Its KB that avoids individual poll results, unless its a way off the trend one.
Vote:June 6th, 2008 at 1:21 pm
GWW – Pathetic. You want trend trend? Go ahead and rebuff the trend shown by Therese Arseneau. Tell us all how the blue and red trend boundary lines are complete wrong. Please …
Vote:June 6th, 2008 at 1:29 pm
Given the way poor old Liarbore are polling may I suggest a new party name for them. What about the Limbo Party, whenever the people hear of the Limbo party we can all shout “how low can they go” as they have an unenvibale talent of continually lowering the bar.
Vote:June 6th, 2008 at 1:34 pm
Bryan: The Standard appear to be rather quiet about the polls at the moment.
That’s because they declared victory quite a few polls back when Labour was ahead. There’s no further need to report on it. Besides, there will be a rogue poll somewhere again taken off 30 voters without telephones that will show Labour is ahead. And then we’ll hear ALL about it.
Of course. Then there is the trend …
Edit: (Note to Lefties. This is a tongue in cheek reference to Philip Johns’ girlish squeals everytime a poll showed some advantage in the leadup to the last election. )
Vote:June 6th, 2008 at 1:42 pm
The key point from the Roy Morgan poll is the huge divide between Labour and National in Auckland. The Nats are ahead 2 to 1. Labour are totally defeated and the campaign hasn’t even started yet. Clark and Cullen are now nothing more than a grumpy and unlikeable aunt and uncle who no one wants to see or visit anymore. Both are through their own doing going to be left with legacies that will be in tatters.
Roll on election day!
Vote:June 6th, 2008 at 1:50 pm
sdoʇ ɟooɹ ǝɥʇ ɯoɹɟ ƃuıɯɐǝɹɔs ǝq plnoʍ ʎǝɥʇ ǝɹns ɯɐ ı pǝʇɹǝʌuı ǝɹǝʍ sllod ǝɥʇ ɟı
Vote:June 6th, 2008 at 2:29 pm
Not really. Brash’s resignation may have facilitated the continued increase in support, which may have otherwise stalled with his continuation in the leadership, given that he was somewhat discredited on a number of fronts by the time he left. It’s not just a matter of the growing unpopularity of the Labour Party pushing the National Party up in the polls, as I thought that you would have recognised before anyone else (push factor, geddit).
Wow, the first time somebody’s commented on my username without making a wank joke. Would it be too much to hope for more?
Anyway, jafa, this is definitely a possibility, and it’s impossible to speculate. But I wonder if those who pushed Brash to go would have pushed quite so hard if they’d realised that they were in the middle of a sustained rise in popularity. A temporary plateau provided by uncertainty about Brash’s dealings might not have seemed so terrifying.
As I say, it would be difficult to argue it’s the wrong decision since switching to Key hardly seems to have hurt them. Just interesting to indulge in a bit of hindsight
Vote:June 6th, 2008 at 2:42 pm
The poll results are influencing the bookies. Overnight, Centrebet has shortened National from $1.45 to $1.35, with Labour going out to $3.10 from $2.70.
Bookies generally get election results correct and this close to an election they obviously think it’s all bad for Labour. But that is all good for New Zealand.
Vote:June 6th, 2008 at 2:51 pm
“Bookies generally get election results correct”
Got the last one quite wrong actually. Had Brash well favoured leading up to the election.
If the current results hold until say July/August then yes National will piss in, but I’m still not convinced people won’t swing back.
Vote:June 6th, 2008 at 2:52 pm
pushme says: “If Arsenau’s conclusions are correct it seems to imply that Don Brash’s resignation was, if not wrong, not necessary to improve National’s electoral performance.”
To the contrary. Therese says: “It is interesting that National’s trend line crossed above Labour’s before the September 2005 election. That was an election that National therefore could, or perhaps should, have won. The fact that it did not demonstrates that election campaigns matter and that trends are not set in stone. But the gap between the trend lines was small in 2005; small enough to be breached by interest free student loans and Clark’s stronger leadership.”
In other words, according to the trend line National should have won but Brash stuffed it up.
Vote:June 6th, 2008 at 2:59 pm
George: “In other words, according to the trend line National should have won but Brash stuffed it up.”
No George, according to Arseneau’s account it was because Labour targetted the students and showed strong leadership. Brash wasn’t responsible for Labour’s strengths. I’d add that a few ex-Brethren also had a deal-making impact on the election.
Note to Chris Diack: Don’t the undecideds usually finish up voting roughly in the same proportions in the ballot box anyway? Therefore, do we need them in the picture when we’re trying to predict outcomes? After the election it is essential to include non-voters to get the complete picture, though.
Vote:June 6th, 2008 at 3:25 pm
Does the phrase “whoop whoop, pull up pull up” have any resonance here?
Seriously, the red line is dropping faster than a prime ministerial motorcade!
Vote:June 6th, 2008 at 3:33 pm
Hmm, remarkable that you can have “a renaissance” and “head towards victory” in this country without any real policies other than a tax cut!
I also like the idea that the Nats have been “heading to victory” for six years, even though the electoral term is only three years and in spite of their ACTUAL defeat at the last poll (half way through that 6 years when they were supposedly HEADING FOR victory
)
A typical one-eyed Cantabrian perhaps?
Vote:June 6th, 2008 at 4:05 pm
Hey DPF, your graphs look like Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth‘s graphs.
Vote:June 6th, 2008 at 4:32 pm
GhostWho’sInDenial said “Every poll seems to to be featured at The S. Its KB that avoids individual poll results, unless its a way off the trend one.”
Ghost, the only “way off the trend” poll now would be one that shows Labour leading!
Vote:June 6th, 2008 at 4:59 pm
Well The Standard is the blog mouthpiece for the Labour party so they are hardly likely to comment on their own demise. Also have you noticed it takes a about 8 people to run The Standard but only 1 person to run KiwiBlog? It seems Labours overstaffing culture isn’t just limited to the public service.
Vote:June 6th, 2008 at 5:00 pm
RRM: no real policies other than a tax cut? Are we talking about Labour here?
Vote:June 6th, 2008 at 5:15 pm
Although to be fair, we have no idea what John Key’s Tax Cut That Will Solve Everything will be, yet, because he won’t tell us how much of a tax cut, or where the money will come from.
..So it is not even a policy really, so much as just an idea, or an abstract concept, or a sphere of positive energy in the middle of the meeting table every time the Nats sit down for a jolly old brain-storming session!
But hey, talk’s cheap when you’re the leader of the opposition!
Vote:June 6th, 2008 at 5:16 pm
I can remember a conversation with a good friend the day after the last election where I said my take was the election came 2 months too early for National. The votes for Labour and National were sooooo close, but it was clear even then that the month-to-month trend was votes leaking away from Labour towards National. I was (still am) surprised that Helen didn’t call an earlier election in 2005.
Fast forwarding to today … Labour are toast. Old stale toast. With mould.
In the long run Helen may look back and think that she’d have been better to get out in 2005 with a mostly-positive legacy as a strong capable leader, and then run off to a job with the WHO or FAO or someone like that. That third term has mainly bought her controversy and bitterness and it’s certainly besmirched what political legacy she had. Better to burn out than to fade away …
Vote:June 6th, 2008 at 5:19 pm
I don’t know that enough has been made of the advantage that Roy Morgan gives National in Auckland. It would be interesting to see this data rolled out over other major metropolitan areas. I remember been optimistic of a National victory early on on election night 2005 where National shot out of the blocks in the provinces, only to see Labour climb back bit-by-bit as the urban electorates came in. If Labour is only supported by just over one in four Aucklanders, I’m guessing the party has a crisis on its hands.
Vote:June 6th, 2008 at 5:47 pm
Despite Clarks lack of faith in them, they need a circuit breaker. And it needs to be big. I know the lefty trolls go on about a grand left coalition, but in reality, even if Greens got 10% and Labour scraped 35%, all the other little fishes would be nuts to prop up Clark and Cullen, when the polls and as every person in this country knows, the hunger for change is insatiable.
I can think of only three things that can derail a centre right win.
1. The “neutron” bomb…….I would have imagined it would have been used about now…..or has it been used………or have the Nats countered with their own veiled threat of exposure.
2. A massive fiscally irresponsible bribe
3. A change of leader and/or finance minister.
Personally I think 2 the most likely………..hopefully we are attune to this option this time and don’t get fooled again
Vote:June 6th, 2008 at 5:48 pm
Hey, Re Don Brash, the ONE thing he DID do for National that is still “live”, is, he grabbed all ACT’s voters. And National, in spite of having moved from being ACT Lite under Don to Helen Lite under John, hasn’t lost those ACT voters back to ACT, if the polls are to be believed. Why?
Vote:June 6th, 2008 at 6:08 pm
“Got the last one quite wrong actually. Had Brash well favoured leading up to the election.”
David C shouldn’t lie about Don Brash being the bookies favourite over Labour in the 2005 election. Any quick search of the internet will reveal the historical odds. For example, at 1/08/2005, Labour was paying $1.65 and National $2.10.
Get your facts right, David C
Vote:June 6th, 2008 at 6:17 pm
PhilBest (1593) Add karma Subtract karma +0 Says:
June 6th, 2008 at 5:48 pm
Hey, Re Don Brash, the ONE thing he DID do for National that is still “live”, is, he grabbed all ACT’s voters. And National, in spite of having moved from being ACT Lite under Don to Helen Lite under John, hasn’t lost those ACT voters back to ACT, if the polls are to be believed. Why
Very good point Phil.
\
I think those persons are doing the math r.e the most effective way to vote. Their primary goal is to rid the country of Clarkism and the failed policies of Cullenomics.
When polled at present they say National as the status quo at the moment is favourable. When polls start showing (as the undoubtedly will), that Rodney will hold Epsom and the ACT message is registered, expect to see a bounce for ACT
ACT have costed, detailed policy which many in National and other parties are comfortable with
ACT obtained 2 MP’s when everyone thought it was a dead vote and Brash was ACT in drag. Expect more this time when reality bites.
Vote:June 6th, 2008 at 7:38 pm
Next thing we will see the Standard turn the graph upside-down and report Labour are leading.
Vote:June 6th, 2008 at 7:50 pm
so..you have labour..you have the greens…you have the maori party..and you have 13% ‘undecideds’..
there’s a gummint..by my calculations..
you have national currently riding high..having released no policies..
..there is no way national will sustain that level..
,,and..who exactly is your coalition partner..?
phil(whoar.co.nz)
Vote:June 6th, 2008 at 8:16 pm
I wouldn’t count the “undecides” in there Phil… the “undecides” could go anywhere… that’s why they are called “undecided”. For all the undecided voters to vote solely for either Labour or Greens and not National or ACT is a statistical improbability.
Vote:June 6th, 2008 at 8:30 pm
And the Greens have exposed their own self serving ways so not so sure about the Maori Party supporting them now. Maori are after their own power base and self determination. As they should be.
Vote:Your confidence Phil, smacks of the patronisng attitude which seems prevalent with Greens and even Labour as to whom Maori will go into coalition with.
June 6th, 2008 at 8:43 pm
Question to Mr Phil U.
How high do you think Labour will poll come October?
Supplementary……………do you really think NZ will tolerate a political party so “dissed” by the electorate, running the country…………………………………………………Eh?
Eh….exclamation……….apostrophe……..random dot and vague punctuation…………………………..eh
Vote:June 6th, 2008 at 9:04 pm
labour will claw some back..national will drop some..
..then the rest of my formula kicks in..
if nothing else..you righties should still your hysterical over-confidence..
there are a huge amount of ‘if’s facing you..
(and just quietly..from what i’ve been told..
..about that ‘neutron bomb’..?..
whoar..!..hold onto your hats..!
and that’ll kick the guts out of any lead..)
..eh..?..
chin up..!..
eh..?..duckie..!
phil(whoar.co.nz)
Vote:June 6th, 2008 at 9:10 pm
Phil said
“if nothing else..you righties should still your hysterical over-confidence..”
Someone please translate……………
time to hit the downers buddy!,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,eh
Vote:June 6th, 2008 at 9:14 pm
try a dictionary..oh literate one..
phil(whoar.co.nz)
Vote:June 6th, 2008 at 9:25 pm
philu rolls his joints with pages of the Collins English Dictionary.
Vote:June 6th, 2008 at 9:30 pm
If only someone could come up with Kiwi version of
http://ifyoulikeitsomuchwhydontyougolivethere.com/the-twat-o-tron/
It would save your resident nutters from even having to type David.
Vote:June 7th, 2008 at 6:50 am
‘It would save your resident nutters from even having to type David.’
You contradict yourself, sonic.
Vote:June 7th, 2008 at 11:16 am
You keep clinging to that cement lifejacket phool, help is coming.
Vote:June 7th, 2008 at 2:11 pm
# spector (50) Add karma Subtract karma +2 Says:
June 6th, 2008 at 8:16 pm
“I wouldn’t count the “undecides” in there Phil… the “undecides” could go anywhere… that’s why they are called “undecided”. For all the undecided voters to vote solely for either Labour or Greens and not National or ACT is a statistical improbability.”
# Captain Crab (162) Add karma Subtract karma +1 Says:
June 6th, 2008 at 8:30 pm
“And the Greens have exposed their own self serving ways so not so sure about the Maori Party supporting them now. Maori are after their own power base and self determination. As they should be.
Your confidence Phil, smacks of the patronisng attitude which seems prevalent with Greens and even Labour as to whom Maori will go into coalition with.”
HEY!!!!! Please refer to THAT GUY as “philu”…….
Vote:June 7th, 2008 at 5:01 pm
no..phil (the inferior)..!
i am phil..
you are phil (the inferior)..
got that..?
phil(whoar.co.nz)
Vote: