PREFU: Ten years of deficits
October 6th, 2008 at 3:41 pm by David FarrarThe PREFU is far worse than anyone could imagine. Thank God St Ruth and National changed the law in 1994 to force the Government to open the books up before an election – otherwise it would be a repeat of the last time a Labour Government left office – a fiscal mess for the incoming Government.
The Secretary of the Treasury, John Whitehead, did a presentation before we got the books. The room was silent as he wound out the bad news. The problem isn’t our financial markets – they are much better structured than in the US. It is the flow on effects of lower GDP growth and increased spending. So we don’t have a crisis, but we do have a very bleak fiscal situation.
The Crown accounts are going into deficit, and will remain in deficit until 2018 – yes – a decade of deficits on the medium term projections. The deficit is forecast to be $31 million this year and up to $3.2 billion in 2012/13 – returning to surplus only in 2017/18. This is the OBEGAL excluding Super Fund Revenue.
Dr Cullen and Helen Clark are going to be very red faced over debt. Do you recall how they attacked National’s plan to borrow 2% more of GDP for infrastructure as an economic calamity and reckless as it would push debt up to 22% of GDP – 2% in excess of Dr Cullen’s ceiling of 20%
Debt is forecast to peak at 30.1%!!! It will be 24.3% by 2012/13 and 30.1% by 2018/19. After wailing about how the world would end if debt went to 22% of GDP, Dr Cullen is leaving NZ with a forecast rise to 30%.
The cash deficit next year is now forecast to be $6 billion and over five years a cash deficit of 31.7 billion.
Incidentally PREFU was done around five weeks ago so doesn’t take account of the very latest in the US such as the bailout. They do not expect this to change PREFU significantly but it does increase the risk of a sharp slowdown.
Treasury are forecasting close to 0% annual GDP growth until June 2009.
Some changes to the annual predictions are
- KiwiSaver costs up $280m by 2012
- Tax take down 900m
- Benefit costs 500m up
- Early Childhood Education Costs up 200m
- Debt servicing up 500m
The annual contingency for extra spending is $1.75 b per annum plus 2% inflation. But most of this is already allocated and for the next four years only $500 to $600 million a year is available for genuine new spending.
So what to do? Well the Treasury Secretary says if one can manage an average real GDP growth of 3%, then the long-term debt (2022/23) will reduce by 10%.
This for me is what the election must now be about. The status quo in terms of economic growth is not acceptable – a decade of deficits must not happen. So voters should ask which party will have the best policies and best people to boost economic growth.
I have previously given Dr Cullen pretty high marks for his fiscal management. Those marks were seriously downgraded today as he leaves us with ten years of deficits forecast and a 50% forecast increase in debt as a percentage of GDP.
There will be some focus on National’s response and their tax plans and infrastructure plans. The tax plans will be credible if they are largely fiscally neutral with reductions elsewhere in expenditure. And a lower tax economy will lead to higher economic growth – which is what it is all about.
The infrastructure plans will add 2% of GDP to gross debt – a small amount now compared to the 10% extra on these projections. The rationale is unchanged for them though – if they will add to economic growth by increasing productivity, then that is a good return on investment. Not all infrastructure investments will lead to higher economic growth, so the focus should be on the quality of the investment.
Bill English is about to inherit what may be the toughest job in New Zealand – turning around a projected ten years of deficits and 50% increase in gross debt as a percentage of GDP.
October 6th, 2008 at 3:43 pm
Well Helen was right when she said that the election will be all about the economy. At this rate Labour will be lucky to be polling 20%. They (almost) deserve to be re-elected to prove once and for all that they couldn’t manage their way out of a wet paper bag.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 3:47 pm
“Bill English is about to inherit what may be the toughest job in New Zealand – turning around a projected ten years of deficits and 50% increase in gross debt as a percentage of GDP.”
Will Sir Roger by his side I trust him to do okay.
[DPF: I did joke to some journalists that maybe they could put Sir Roger in for say just six months
]
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 3:47 pm
*With*
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 3:48 pm
/me waits for the MSM to (finally) take Cullen to task for this mess…
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 3:49 pm
Cullen should be deported back to Coronation St, where he belongs.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 3:50 pm
Bye bye Labour.
On a slightly different note, has anyone noticed that someone appears to be spamming the latest stuff.co.nz poll in favour of Helen Clark? The votes are going up for her quite rapidly.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/view-poll-results.html?section_id=28435&poll_id=18338
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 3:51 pm
Those numbers are disgraceful, everyone should march on Parliament and the Beehive and run these incompentent, lying pricks out of Wellington once and for all.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 3:51 pm
No she said it was on TRUST – ‘Totally Rooted Unanimously Splurged Tax’
Hell might just have to vote Labour to see what comedic response they can come up with to this. Clarkstone Kops
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 3:52 pm
The PREFU turned out to be PREtty F U.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 3:52 pm
oh.my.god
Talk about pissing away the family silver.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 3:52 pm
Bloody Hell!
Incompetence or vindictiveness?
And while our economy has been hemorrhaging Cullen has
been out buying the nation a train set…
I’m thinking he should have been reading those History Books
Vote:particularly the chapter on the Great Depression.
October 6th, 2008 at 3:52 pm
Watch the media give Klark and Kullen a free ride over this diabolical handling of the economy, the fucking pinko media (acting on orders from the 9th floor) will go into attack mode when Key announces the tax cuts.
I can just see Mold and the rest of the mustachioed reporters now..”how can you afford Tax cuts Mr Key”…”The economy cannot afford Tax cuts Mr Key”
In the mean time not one of the bastards will ask “ahmm..how did we ever get in the shit in the first place Dr Cullen?”
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 3:52 pm
Adolf – Cullen should be executed for this pile of shit. Trying to blame it all on the world economy is like trying to blame John Key for the Merrill Lynch collapse. What a pack of self-serving motherfuckers.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 3:55 pm
Certain words spoken gloatingly should come back to haunt Labour for a generation:
“We’ve spent the lot!!”
You sure did Michael.. you sure did.
JC
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 3:55 pm
Well on the up side Doc Sullen can add failed finance minister to failed history teacher on his CV.
Which he will be needing.
Has he ever cleaned toilets before?
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 3:56 pm
“We” get the government “we” deserve…………are “we” this bad?
Trouble is, there ARE ENOUGH Kiwi voters who ARE THAT bad………..
We should seriously look at cancelling the right to vote, of everyone who votes for this mob THIS TIME; or to be a bit fairer, everyone who voted for them in 2002 AND last time AND this time………
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 3:59 pm
Time for John Boy to grow some balls, it is time that Key trusted the people of NZ just and Lange did back in 84.
When it comes down to it the people of NZ hate being lied to and while they will put up with the usual bullshit and lies from politicians they react badly when it threatens their pockets or their jobs.
Key MUST stop pandering to the Labour voters, he should come out and say he is going to slash social welfare spending and slash govt spending across the board, what he needs to keep reminding the people is that Labour got them into the shit and Labour have no idea how to get out of it, in short he needs to say this election is all about trust.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 3:59 pm
So for the second time a Labour govt looks set to leave office with the country facing economic woe.
OK, time for some dirty questions. Are the tax cuts affordable? Can National afford to spend $1b on broadband and borrow $1b odd for infrastructure?
Is borrowing for infrastructure the only way forward and to blunt the down turn?
And finally how big a fuckwit is Cullen for blowing a billion odd on old technology (the railways) with this in the offing?
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 4:01 pm
You’re asuming it wasn’t deliberate GPT1, a better question would be is Cullen that malicious?
Answer: well duh!
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 4:02 pm
DPF
“[DPF: I did joke to some journalists that maybe they could put Sir Roger in for say just six months”
The thing is David that we are now in the situation where we NEED Sir Roger, while some of us might have liked to see him back in charge of the economy that is now a necessity.
One thing is for sure, it “aint” no fucking joke.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 4:04 pm
Labour have been pissing away money in the last few months (Cullen’s train set, etc). I can’t help but think they’ve done this on purpose to leave a mess for the incoming Govt.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 4:04 pm
If you don’t mind me asking:
So, not Cullens fault…But then he gets ripped into (in two?) for the increase in the national debt this causes??
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 4:05 pm
One thing is certain.
No incoming government should be prepared to spend our money on projects which do not pay their cost of capital or generate a positive net benefit.
This means cancel the train-set games in Auckland and develop a genuine transport policy rather than an “appease the Greens” policy.
My colleagues have just completed a study of train sets in American cities which have pandered to the Green initiatives in recent decades and they are all loss makers on a grand scale. They all came in well over budget and ridership is well below projections.
Vote:Roll on the electric fleet and hybrids and let’s upgrade the roads and turn rail tracks into truck and bus lanes.
October 6th, 2008 at 4:07 pm
Key needs to restate why National had to be tough in the early 90′s and that Labour has done it to NZ again.
This is got to be a reason for making the Labour Party illegal. They are trying to turn NZ into a peasant state.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 4:08 pm
Stephen you lefty piece of shit.
Who do you think is responsible for 9 years of low growth in GDP? the tooth fairy
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 4:09 pm
This is such an awesome opportunity.
Vote:Massive cuts in spending are needed to balance the books, then further massive cuts in spending to fund massive tax cuts that we have been denied for too long.
We can reduce the role of government, lower taxes, lower regulation and become wealthy while the rest of the world bails out losers and increases regulation.
October 6th, 2008 at 4:10 pm
How the hell have benefits increased by half a billion. I thought everything was rosy in the unemployment camp or have the deck chairs just been moved around?
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 4:11 pm
Where are all the leftie trolls this afternoon?
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 4:13 pm
So, not Cullens fault…But then he gets ripped into (in two?) for the increase in the national debt this causes??
Last I checked, he was the Minister of Finance and loved to gloat at the high points many a time proclaiming it was due to Labour’s fiscal responsibility, he has been shown to be a fraud and now he has to take the kick in the nuts for the lows.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 4:13 pm
Time to remind you all of Michael Cullen’s post-budget 2008 statement: “The cupboard is bare…I’ve not merely stolen their fox, I’ve eviscerated it,strangled it and thrown it into their back garden”. He wasn’t joking.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 4:17 pm
Where are all the leftie trolls this afternoon?
Queuing up at House of Travel to book their one-way tickets to Aussie.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 4:21 pm
Owen, dear god yes. Screw taxing people extra for petrol that they have no alternative to use, forget about short-term gains and put our resources towards developing an intuitive transport network for Auckland. I’m sick of the half-assed ‘give the Greens what they want by taxing people extra’ approach that doesn’t actually give us anything.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 4:21 pm
Cullen is also blaming the increase in Treaty settlements.
I hope the Maori’s are starting to make some good returns on their investments when their benefits start to get cut.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 4:22 pm
Can we finally get agreement that the Communist/Socialist experiment is just one big failure and move on?
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 4:25 pm
Time to develop the Southern oil fields so we can be energy independent and an exporter.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 4:26 pm
Time to really piss off the Greens and start exporting all our coal. With 95% plus of reserves even after 150 years of mining I think it is about time to crank up production and start the black gold rush.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 4:27 pm
Helen Clark won applause as she spoke of how her government has been able to make the lives of New Zealanders and immigrants “better off” – through policies such as working for families, interest free student loans, and cheaper doctor’s fees, which she says has been made possible “because the Labour Government pays the difference”.
THE LABOUR GOVERNMENT PAYS THE DIFFERENCE?
huh?
Cullen is a fucking buffoon. He couldn’t take a piss without soaking his shoes. Mind you, Unkle Helen most likely makes him sit to piss.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 4:30 pm
DPF With the greatest respect those of us with a professional financial background always knew Mikey was a bullshit artist when it came to financial management. All he did was over tax and piss it all up against the wall
There were never any measurable KPI It was all smoke and mirrors,
In a past life if a divisional accountant had presented me with the crapola Mikey did I would have kicked their arses from here to kingdom come and back again and then sent them away to construct a meaningful set of accounts explaining where it was coming from and what the result was going to be
the last 5 years have been a stunning tax grab coupled with the lowest quality spending Ive ever seen
Billions pissed up against the wall with no real outcomes.
BTW Agree with you Owen Dump the rail build more roads Encourage hybrid and diesel vehicles and tell the anti car brigade to FOXTROT OSCAR
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 4:34 pm
Great post gd,
English will have to attack the huge elephantine bureaucracy in Govt departments. It’s hard to think of an area in Govt spending where Cullen and friends haven’t overspent look at health where money has been thrown around recklessly
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 4:38 pm
Excusez-moi, qu’est-ce que vous avez dit?
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 4:39 pm
Anybody else get the feeling that Climate change and Green issues just became a non event in this years election?
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 4:43 pm
Big bruv and the regional fuel tax they were trying to push through in the last week.
I guess the Maori Party’s wish to drop GST on food has just gone out the door.
Labour is no better that the execs at Enron. A small business owner with only school cert could have delivered a better result for the country that Cullen.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
Unforntunately I think it might be better for Labour to get back in to teach the 40% of kiwis who still vote left the ill of their ways.
If National gets in once again they will do all the hard work only to be voted out in 6 to 9 years time and have Labour once again take all the credit and wreck the country.
This cycle has to be stopped. NZ almost has a self harm fetish.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 4:51 pm Vote:
October 6th, 2008 at 4:52 pm
Lindsay, I’d say the Trolls are getting their scripts papers from the 9th floor, hence their silence.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 4:54 pm
Roy Morgan this Friday? I wonder if the ‘ordinary voters’ will have had time to absorb the dimensions of the disaster?
Within six months the price people will pay for dairy farms will have dissolved and banks will be quietly asking highly geared cockies with deflated land values and reduced incomes to ‘kindly bring themselves within guidelines’ and by the way, which paddocks are you going to sell on a down market to do it?’ You see, Treasury will not have factored in the real negative effects of the China disaster on the fortunes of Fonterra in all its other world markets. Our competitors will be picking off our most profitable markets as hard as they can go. And like Labour breathed ‘exclusive brethren’ all over the 2005 election, Fonterra’s competitors will simply breath the word ‘melanine’ and ‘kidney stone kids’ ad nauseam throughout Europe and the Americas, scaring the shit out of consumers. Like Labour’s EBs propaganda, the fact that there’s not a shred of truth in it doesn’t matter. All they have to do is sew the seeds of doubt.
We are in for a very very rough ride – similar to 1984/85
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 4:55 pm
Steps to ensure the predictions dont come to pass.
1. Establish a 30/30/30 tax regime 30% top personal rate 30% company rate 30% trust rate.
2. No tax on first 10K 15% flat tax to $50K 30% after that
3. Scrape WFF.
4. Send 25% of civil servants home on full pay for 3 months and tell them to look for real jobs.
5. All beneficaries apart from Super to reapply for benefits on a progressive basis over next 12 months using birthdates as the deadline. 3 months grace and then benenfit stops
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 4:59 pm
“/me waits for the MSM to (finally) take Cullen to task for this mess…”
You’ll be waiting a long time. I bet they hardly mention it. Tonight’s news will be about John Key and rail shares.
I also predict Cullen will come out with something along his “just an ideological burp” line. He stole thousands from me that I could have used to protect my family against the coming storm. I hate the prick.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 5:00 pm
Too lenient.
1. Establish a 20/20/20 Tax regime
2. No tax on first 15K, 20% on all income after
3. Scrap all government initiatives that are not 100% vital to the core functions of the government (police, courts, infrastructure etc)
4. Send 50% of civil servants home on full pay for two weeks, and tell them to look for real jobs
5. All beneficiaries apart from Super have three months to find a job. After that, no benefit at all.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 5:02 pm
gd, I think the Maori Party would go along with most of that. Fits their stated policies quite nicely. Maybe not number 5.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 5:02 pm
It has started already, an advert for TV Ones news tonight tells us that the lead story is going to be “can National still afford the tax cuts”
FFS, the media should be hammering Cullen and Klark for their mismanagement of the economy.
BASTARDS!
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 5:04 pm
10 years of deficits? That magic number gives me an idea……
Time for a new economic vision, “The Power of 10″, to boost economic growth and competitiveness by reducing the cost of living, working and doing business in NZ and get us in the top 10 of the OECD in 10 years (also posted over at No Minister)?
10% GST
10% company tax
Flat 10% income tax
First $10k of income tax-free
10k tax credit per child
10% excise tax on petrol and diesel (GST component also used for roading)
Minimum wage reduced to $10 an hour (yep)
What else? How about:
Government spending and benefit increases capped at 2% per annum, regardless of CPI, excepting penstions (pensioners have paid their taxes)
Working For Families scrapped (replaced with tax credit system and lower flat tax)
Emissions Trading Scheme scrapped
Resource Management Act scrapped to facilitate rapid development of infrastructure like motorways and power stations, exploitation of our mineral wealth
All “boutique” ministries established under Labour scrapped
Civil service staff numbers frozen at present levels
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 5:05 pm
Look, I am afraid that I agree with the people who have said that it would be better for Liarbour to get back in again, than to have National get in now, make some tough but necessary calls, get hammered by the Lefty MSM and out on their ears again in 3 years, whereapon the Heleban Plan for NZ society lets rip with phase four……..
I think John Key needs to grow balls NOW and front up on TV, go to the people and say, NZ is stuffed, the socialists have stuffed it, the family silver is off to the pawnshop, we can’t afford fat government like as if we’ve got Saudi Arabian Oil revenue or something: GIVE US A MANDATE TO DO WHATEVER IT TAKES, forget the petty class warfare stuff and the tall poppy jealousy, forget the “stooges of big business” bullshit; otherwise we’re not interested in governing. And he can tell the MSM to pack their bags for North Korea if they don’t get with the program.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 5:06 pm
The EFA is of major concern to me and our great country. Why are the voters only shown alternatives coming from the same pool of parties? In change management we are taught to look outside of the box, and YES there are alternatives outside the box that in my opinion are very good, but voters are shown very little of them.
Vote:We need a genuine shift in this great Nation and I trust that voters are seriously trawling all of the available options and not just viewing the parties already in Parliament with blinkers on!
October 6th, 2008 at 5:07 pm
10% GST
10% company tax
Flat 10% income tax
First $10k of income tax-free
10k tax credit per child
10% excise tax on petrol and diesel (GST component also used for roading)
Minimum wage reduced to $10 an hour (yep)
Be still my beating heart!
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 5:12 pm
Christopher: I Like It.
“I See Red”: I Like It Even More……..
YEAH, Bevan, my beating heart too…….
THAT is the sort of program that John Key needs to take to the country, and tell them he isn’t interested in being a puppet for the socialist MSM and he isn’t interested in playing “caretaker”, sit-on-its-hands government in between bouts of increasingly destructive radical socialist administration; they’re going to have to give him a mandate to do whatever it takes, or they can just suffer the consequences of Helen and Mikhael loose on the Treasury benches for as long as it takes for them to come to their senses, if they ever do before it is too late…….and there always IS a “too late” when we’re talking about the entrenchment of socialism.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 5:16 pm
Well it looks like the socialist pricks are good at something, spending other peoples money, the arseholes!!. I hear Dear Leader blaming the drought for our woes, fucking slag, since when have these bastards ever given a rats arse about the rural sector, according to fucking Sullen we are all “silly”, not as silly as he looks at the moment. About the only thing I can say is that at the present point in time my books look a lot better then this prick’s. God these wankers want to make you spew !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 5:17 pm
Phil best – probably being a little excitably but what about Key suspending his campaign for, say, a week to work on an economic recovery plan as Labour’s appalling economic mismanagement has been worse than their greatest fears. All policy on the table for review, including (this hurts to say) tax cuts and coming out with something comprehensive?
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 5:20 pm
My thoughts too Adolf but IMHO Pita and Turia could be amenable to a revised point 5 on my list they know that welfare has destroyed their people.
As to the 20% 10% tax rates Yes Would be nice but we need to start somewhere The bloody economists are the biggest problem because they dont understand the human factor just the numbers.
Again IMHO we could start with a 30% regime and the Laffer curve would quickly allow more cuts.
the first step is the hardest the economists and the civil servants are like drug addicts or drunks
they have to be weaned off their failed thinking little by little
Even at 30% they will have all the reasons in the world why it cant work the reasons are all in their top 2 inches
Gotta get with the programme JK BE Time to stand up and take charge and lead from the front
the citizens are crying out for big goand leadership
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 5:20 pm
Well National has their chance tonight.
Bill is on Close Up and Key on Campbell.
Whatever the subject they need to change it and ram up that this Govt had fucked up beyond belief and it is time for some real hard calls.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 5:20 pm
What’s this rubbish about “only” $500 million of new spending each year? It’s time for government to tighten it’s belt a little after a 9 year binge. Finding a mere $64 million of low quality spending to cut to cover the first year’s deficit should be simple. All that’s needed is the will to do it.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 5:21 pm
10% of civil service fired
Departmental spending reduced by 10%
While I really do want drastic cuts in welfare spending, I want it through the natural attrition of the unemployed leaving the benefit and entering the workforce, not actually reducing benefits by X dollars a week. I really don’t think it’s fair to slash someone’s benefit IF the economy isn’t producing the jobs and the tax rates create too much of a disincentive to obtain work. I like the idea of reducing the minimum wage to $10 per hour with a flat tax rate of 10% and tax-free threshold of $10k, since such a wage is still livable. Reductions in GST and petrol tax (transport costs are built into everything we buy) will lower costs of living and increase spending power, and of course the lower flat tax increases take-home pay. A lot of manual jobs that are presently unprofitable can be created of the unskilled subset of the unemployed who are able-bodied and can at least clean, cut lawns, work in construction etc.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 5:33 pm
So Cullen’s blaming the “credit crunch, oil prices and food” for the slowdown – and the MSM (Armstrong in particular) are lapping it up. This is really simple – in the last nine years it’s been like the government’s got a new job that pays more. So they went out and bought a Ferarri.
Sure the upkeep was higher than it had been driving around in their old Commodore, but they were earning more so they could afford the maintenance and petrol bills that were coming in. But they never planned for a day when they might be made redundant – so they decided to have an overseas trip to go with it. Sure they put a bit away, but it was in a life insurance policy, the one that had been recommended by the nice man with the smile.
The premiums were high, but hey they could afford it, because they had a new higher paying job – and to top it all off, they were getting pay rises every year. As the years went on, so their expenses increased. They were paying more and more of their income out, but it was ok because the money kept rolling in.
Then one day they got made redundant. Their job had gone, the company had retrenched. There was nothing there, the credit cards were maxed out, the bills for the Ferarri were piling up and the furniture needed upgrading as it had worn out.
Jeez, why is it that the MSM can’t see the simple analogy – if you spend on schemes that don’t have a return, no matter whether it’s a household or a government, then one day you’re going to have to pay the piper. So why would you give the reigns of the Finance Ministry to someone who only knows how to spend, not how to invest?
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 5:37 pm
“5. All beneficiaries apart from Super have three months to find a job. After that, no benefit at all.”
IMHO, that’s a bit harsh. It should be along the lines of:
1. Dole is scrapped immediately. Any unemployed person may (at their discretion) turn up to work from 9am til 3pm (at a local or central government office) in exchange for a day’s pay equivalent to the dole. (plenty of work to be done, roading, gardening, graffitti removal, labouring, etc, etc) Anyone who doesn’t work, doesn’t get paid.
2. Sickness beneficiaries (and ACC beneficiaries) to undergo quarterly assessments (by a different GP each time.)
3. DPB not to increase/apply for any child conceived while on any form of benefit.
…I can’t imagine that being too popular in some circles though!
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 5:37 pm
Leave GST as is
15% company tax
15% income tax
NO NO NO
Vote:GST exemptions
Working against families tax credits
Tax breaks for savings
Tax-free income thresholds
Duties
Excise
Tariffs
October 6th, 2008 at 5:41 pm
And Cullens response is to carry on being prudent and not taking risks.
He spends faster than a P addict at a drug else on all the unproductive stuff, but doesn’t do anything about investment in infrastructure and growth.
He reminds me of those anal accountants that run businesses with the same profit every year until they fold because the market has moved on.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 5:44 pm
1. Dole is scrapped immediately. Any unemployed person may (at their discretion) turn up to work from 9am til 3pm (at a local or central government office) in exchange for a day’s pay equivalent to the dole. (plenty of work to be done, roading, gardening, graffitti removal, labouring, etc, etc)
Typical right wing “why the fuck should I have to pay wages?” bullshit.
If there is work to be done, then pay for it at the appropriate rate. Why steal the bread from one worker’s mouth just to save yourself fifty cents?
No wonder your lot keep losing elections!
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 5:47 pm
MyName. How about walking the highways and picking up all the rubbish?
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 5:48 pm
“Typical right wing “why the fuck should I have to pay wages?” bullshit.
If there is work to be done, then pay for it at the appropriate rate. Why steal the bread from one worker’s mouth just to save yourself fifty cents?”
Typical left wing response from the losers who steal money from those of us out there earning a living and paying tax.
A better idea Comrade Jack would be to pay nothing to those who have been unemployed for more than three months, if wankers like you want to pay more tax for these bludgers then go right ahead, meanwhile the rest of us will be taking personal responsibility for our own lives.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 5:48 pm
All unemployed people should have to do 3 days a week of community type projects. That still gives them 2 days a week to look for fulltime work, watch Sky TV and beat people up.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 5:52 pm
Whilst your ideas of reduced and flat tax rates is appealing (and lets get all the beneficieries, why think that super bludgers should be treated differently), they are inherently deflationary. The outcome will be reduced incomes (to match reduced costs) EXCEPT for those people who purchased higly priced property over the last 5 years.
So some shuffling of the mortgage market is needed, but probably won’t happen. Therefore lets come up with a workable plan B….please.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 5:52 pm
The brutal reality is NZers simply now have less money to spend.
The immediate question is how much of that will be borne by the Govt (public sector spending) and how much is going to be borne by households (private sector).
If you hold the position that the Govt has no room to cut spending, then you are going to dump the full effects of the downturn onto households. I suspect rather that the Govt has more manouver room to cut spending than households. I suspect however, my dear Labour leaders are much more comfortable with dumping the cost onto households.
Now, whose dumb idea was it to piss away a lot of cash on a trainset?
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 5:53 pm
“Typical right wing “why the fuck should I have to pay wages?” bullshit.”
Honestly, that angle had never crossed my mind. I’m more of a typical right wing “why the fuck should I have to pay $30k a year in tax so that others don’t have to go to work?” salary earner.
If it makes the argument more sound, then pay them 6hrs at minimum wage for their effort. (or make the requirement simply to work “mornings”)
Of course, it’s much easier to dismiss the concept out-of-hand as “typical right wing bullshit” rather than debate an idea on its merits eh?
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 5:55 pm
funny big bruv, but I actually work for my $, and probably make more of them than you. Maybe its because when I have work to be done I employ people to do it and pay them a fair wage, thus making everyone happy – the classic win-win.
And of course, like all those who fart from the right, you failed to answer the point – if there is work to be done, what’s wrong with paying a fair wage for someone to do it? How much are you prepared to do unpaid?
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 5:56 pm
Doc
People won’t vote for a govt that makes them work for their benefits – this is the crux of why it is a bad idea.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 5:58 pm
MyNameIsJack
My experience tells me that when people claim to be making more money than somebody else who they have never discussed earnings with it is usually because they are a wanna-be. So spill MyNameIsJack, how much do you make a year?
It’s only fair to ask since you assert you are earning more than big bruv ?
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 6:00 pm
“Thank God St Ruth and National changed the law in 1994 to force the Government to open the books up before an election…”
I second that.
Anyone else think that this is deliberate economic sabotage by the Labour government? I have been saying it since the last poison pill budget. Clark and Cullen are making it as painful as possible for National when they take over, and they are screwing over NZ in order to do it.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 6:02 pm
Klink and Shulltz raping and pillaging the village before the allies come over the hill just for spite , next , all govt computer key boards will have their H keys removed on election night.hahaha
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 6:03 pm
“How much are you prepared to do unpaid?”
Wasnt he talking about work for the dole? Where do you get the idea that people wouldnt be paid? Ohhhh, you have to lie to make your point. Go live at The Standard, thats their bread and butter.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 6:10 pm
Will Doc Caustic Cullen be rather sullen when he joins the WINZ lolly scramble after he is dethroned as the Minister of fiscal fuckups!
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 6:25 pm
Bevan said
“Last I checked, he was the Minister of Finance and loved to gloat at the high points many a time proclaiming it was due to Labour’s fiscal responsibility, he has been shown to be a fraud and now he has to take the kick in the nuts for the lows.”
Don’t you mean kick in the vagina?
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 6:27 pm
Burt, it’s all in the way you sell it
It’s not working for a benefit. There would be no benefit. This would simply be a guaranteed job scheme, with any losses incurred due to oversupply of labour, or lack of productivity absorbed by the taxpayer.
If you don’t like the job, or don’t like minimum wage, then get a better job… But remove the very notion of being entitled to something for nothing.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 6:28 pm
Comrade Jack failed to mention he runs a Govt department and can pay his staff what ever he likes as he has no budget, no KPI’s and no responsibility.
A bit like Cullen really.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 6:36 pm
Ah yes, the old: “Have you stopped beating your wife?”
No one mentioned not paying people, at all. You decided that was the solution, not anyone here. Does this mean that the Left’s solution to this will be forced Labour camps, one bowl of rice a day?
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 6:44 pm
Jack
I already work for at least five months of the year for nothing, the money I WOULD have earned is stolen from me by the likes of you and your corrupt government, that money is then given away (with no strings attached) to Labour voting wankers who cannot be bothered getting a job.
Why is it that you think lazy Labour voters have the right to steal money from the rest of us without working for it?
And please, the ” I pay more tax that you line” just proves that you are telling lies.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 6:45 pm
Ye Gods. We find out that Helen and Mickey have steered us all into an iceberg and our first reaction is to start throwing beneficiaries overboard? Because of course all beneficiaries are criminals and bludgers and make no effort whatsoever to find work, that’s a given. Especially in a contracting economy with layoffs being forced by a decade of financial mismanagement.
Funny how I forgot to mug someone on my way to WINZ (or DSW as was) for over six months, armed with a neatly indexed folder stuffed full of rejection letters during the fallout from the last Labour government, followed by the “kick the beneficiaries” policies of “St Ruth” and “St Jenny”.
Or we could get over our kneejerk prejudices and, as Doc suggests, work towards a solution that involves deriving some social benefit in return for the monetary benefit, while being careful (as MyNameIsJack points out) that such schemes don’t take work away from those of us lucky enough to still have jobs in the coming years.
There’s only a handful of people who deserve to be punished for this mess, and they’re all presently heading home in chauffer-driven limosines.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 6:46 pm
This is what happens when there is a history teacher running the finances: He can tell you everything about what happened yesterday but wouldn’t have a clue about what to do tomorrow.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 6:52 pm
In true communist style it will be all the workers fault for not putting in enough effort.
Well I suppose Cullen and Clark are guaranteed a nice MP pension for the rest of their lives while we all toil for the greater good.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 7:27 pm
Sure seems like the liarbore scorched earth policy to me, if they can’t run the show make it as hard as possible for anyone else to.
Vote:That cullen bought what must be a gold plated train set with this looming is a bloody disgrace.
Now while national have to carefully nurse the economy liarbore can sit back and laugh their fat heads off.
It could finally revive the kiwi spirit of inovation and blood and guts determination, but I fear the 30% staunch stalinists will do all they can to derail it.
Its time to yell louder than these marxist freaks, they’ve had the megaphone too long.
October 6th, 2008 at 7:30 pm
The tragedy of all of this is that Cullen thinks he has ‘won’ because the Nats will now be in a spot of bother trying to explain how they will afford tax cuts. The man is sick that he is prepared to stuff the country so he can have his “I won, you lost” moment all over again. What a complete and utter jerk. Time for JK to grow some and weed out all the low quality crap spending that Clark has instigated. There is no shortage of “low hanging fruit” as they say.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 7:33 pm
Some good ideas, but no one has come up with dumping the housing benefit
Vote:for those on the dole etc.
Will hurt landlords who bought at the top of the market ? fuck em if they
cannot take a joke.
Oh but the most important part, do I still get my tax cut ?
October 6th, 2008 at 7:43 pm
“You’ll be waiting a long time. I bet they hardly mention it. Tonight’s news will be about John Key and rail shares.”
I was a bit wrong. They asked how National was going to do things instead of asking how come Cullen has fucked up so badly.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 7:53 pm
Cullen on Close Up had no idea about what to do and just keep on refering to the steady growth plan and how could his fiscal management is.
Is this the same growth plan we have had for the last 9 years.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 7:59 pm
“Is this the same growth plan we have had for the last 9 years.”
Yep, spend your way out of trouble. Doesnt matter what you spend it on, just as long as it is expensive and wont generate a positive return for the country.
More analysts!
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 7:59 pm
Is this the same growth plan we have had for the last 9 years.
Hooray, the public sector will still be hiring.
Oops- sorry- you meant economic growth.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 8:00 pm
Fuck me, are National trying to lose this election?
Sainsbury offered English the chance to rip into Kullen tonight and Bill sat there like a fucking stuffed dummy, meanwhile Kullen ran the usual line of “nine years ago National did not spend enough..blah blah blah…
This is a golden chance to finish the Labour scum off once and for all, English should be on the attack, Kullen is as easy as hell to wind up, you only have to remember last time around when Key as shadow minster of finance made Kullen lose his rag live on close up.
I have no idea who is running the Nat’s campaign but the bastard should be sacked, it is time for Key and English to go on the attack, tonight should not have been about the Nat’s justifying their tax cuts it should have been all about Labour’s mismanagement of the accounts over the last nine years.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 8:06 pm
Agree you don’t have to be personal, but you can seriously attack their policies and lack of progress.
English looked like he needed someone to smack him in the nuts to get some fire in the belly.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 8:25 pm
Now we really know why Cullen stated he was ‘out of his comfort zone’.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 8:34 pm
Cullen is a muppet and has squandered the biggest tax rip in NZ history but let’s focus on the real issue. We are in a financial shitstorm. One of the biggest problems is once get we get rid of the deadwood in bureaucracy, then get rid of the other leeches in non producing jobs like the majority of the financial sector there are no real jobs for them to get. The Herald story today on all the professionals returning to NZ who are losing their jobs in Britain and the US financial sectors was laughable. It implied how great it is we had all these skilled people returning home! What the hell are they going to do when they get back here? McDonalds only has so many jobs to offer. Time to wake up NZ. We need productive and entrepreneurial people and that doesn’t mean financial advisers or or analysts. Take the 700 million R&D for agriculture and put it into something sensible like renewable energy research and development. Whether you like it or not there is a huge and exponentially growing market in it!! Let the ag people look after their own R&D, they make plenty as it is. We need to be smarter, we can’t compete on Labour.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 8:42 pm
Cry me a river Souther Raider, it was a genuine question upon reading the text, which seemed to imply what I said. I could even be wrong. No need to coherently point out why though.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 8:58 pm
it was a genuine question upon reading the text, which seemed to imply what I said. I could even be wrong. No need to coherently point out why though.
Part of the problem has been that productivity growth has slowed ‘in the Cullen years’, and as many commentators have pointed out, a lot of economic growth has occurred because of employment growth (rather than productivity increases).
This meant that the budget surpluses were largely cyclical, rather than being structural. They wouldn’t persist if economic growth faltered (and nothing lasts forever). Spending money when you’ve got surpluses and expecting more is easy. Spending it wisely is harder.
This low productivity growth has been allied to weak capital investments, especially in R&D. But when you have some of the highest interest rates in the OECD and the property bubble is ticking over, low investment is not suprising. There’s a very good reason why we’ve been having net deforestation. Most investors can make more money in the bank than by growing trees.
The quality of the public sector spendup isn’t obvious to anyone outside of the CTU and PSA. The reluctance to invest in more than token increases in power generation has also hurt. I was talking to a colleague in the forestry sector who was thrilled when they developed a new product and manufacturing process. But the profit disappeared with the power price increases. They’ve got to innovate just to break even. Lose that game and you’re out.
In short, the capital and technology investments to get productivity higher- when it could have been afforded more easily- got replaced with abandoned talkfests on knowledge waves and an expanded system of middle class welfare.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 8:59 pm
Lindsay Addie said “Now we really know why Cullen stated he was ‘out of his comfort zone’.”
“out of his comfort zone” is code for way out of his depth and scared shitless.
I think Cullen should have to account for every cent he has spent.
I bet there would be a catalogue full of new buildings for his ubiquitous bureaucracy; sing-along courses, ministerial junkets, and the like.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 9:05 pm
I did find it interesting that Kullen mentioned he would be “reviewing” the $600 million allocated to foreign affairs.
That’s going to piss Winston off in a big way, IMHO it signals that even Labour are starting to think that Winnie is not going to be around after November 8.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 9:07 pm
tknorriss,
I don’t work in the financial sector but yes it’s obvious Cullen doesn’t have a clue what is going on or how to fix it. Surely the markets have lost all confidence in him now. Love to hear from anyone who works in the markets what they really think.
Re English he could’ve said a lot more tonite on CloseUp but he may not have wanted to give away the policy details for the Wednesday announcement.
This is now a golden opportunity for the Nats to slam the door in Labour’s face on Wednesday and play them right out of the election campaign.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 9:09 pm
I have just watched Key on Campbell live.
Key was bloody good, a bit less of the smile and a lot more of the grim serious face befitting the fucking mess we are in.
The Nat’s would do well to keep Bill away from TV, if they must have another spokesman then they could do worse than Brownlee who was excellent on Agenda yesterday morning.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 9:18 pm
What is really alarming here is how quickly things seemed to turned to custard this year. I find it impossible to believe that Cullen didn’t know what was coming bearing in mind the worsening situation in the US with their unfolding problems. It’s been obvious the world economy was heading for a rough patch yet Cullen kept on wasting money on crap like trainsets.
This tosser after nine years couldn’t see the danger and instead was like a possum mesmerized by the oncoming headlights.
This will haunt Labour politically for many years.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 9:22 pm
Cullen stuffed up. Simple. He should man up & grow some balls & admit his mistake, but he wont.
So why jump on the beneficiaries? Last I heard they weren’t the ones in the finance ministers office.
Jump on Cullen for all your worth, but focus on the topic. Reading some of the above comments I thought I was on a reverse universe of the Standard. Normally the kiwiblog populous is reasoned & sensible, of course with a right wing bent, but the comments on this post is just babble and innuendo, and baseless accusations. More commonly found on the Standard.
Why stoop to their level, we own the argument, have the moral authority over them, play the good game, not the cheap one.
Key needs to say, they’re will be hard times, some will loose out, some will suffer, but this will happen regardless of if National or Labour are in power, at least with National, we have a plan, a plan for economic and productivity growth, not growth of bureaucracy and pointless spending.
Play the issue, not the man.
Oh & posters get back to the sensible kiwiblog we’re used to
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 9:23 pm
I have previously given Dr Cullen pretty high marks for his fiscal management.
I think the sad reality is that the latest figures destroy his image of a careful and prudent manager.
Consider this- when growth slows to 0 to 2% the Govt runs a (largish, but not Muldoon-sized) deficit. Not that the surpluses disappear they jump past ‘balanced’ to ‘deficit’ territory.
That shows that his fiscal stance has always been expansionary. It reveals the Govt was a major source of inflation pressure, and why the Reserve Bank has had to push interest rates in NZ so hard. Now, if we’d got some quality spending out of this- if productivity had gone up- then the downturn wouldn’t be so hard.
We’ve finally got a cruel but clear economic experiment to show up what the golden years could not. Cullen screwed up.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 9:30 pm
Hmm Winston looks set to lose $600m, Helen wants the Greens http://www.stuff.co.nz/vote08/4718094a28435.html
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 9:47 pm
The Government’s plan for dealing with the situation is now becoming clear: do nothing.
“Steady as she goes,” says Dr Cullen. Lets just ignore these things that are happening and hope the inconvenient news goes away.
“If we hold absolutely still in the face of these bright oncoming lights, curl up into a ball and make sure we are very prickly on the outside, we are sure to be alright.”
Anyone else notice how on TV Cullen seemed to be trying very hard not to smirk? His attitude seemed to be “Ha ha! The economy’s buggered! Take that National!”
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 9:52 pm
And yet Key will still have the gall to go on TV and say he doesn’t need Sir Roger Douglas on his cabinet table. I bet if they asked him today he’ll repeat it.
Even now, after Cullen has spent all our high taxes over the last 9 years. Seriously guys, Key is going to drag down the centre right unless we give him some teeth and give him no choice but to put Roger in there.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 10:05 pm
I posted a longish article on my blog about the PREFU by looking at it from a strictly political point of view:
Vote:PREFU shows Cullen has let NZ down
October 6th, 2008 at 10:06 pm
Key did very well on Campbell Live and managed to divert the topic onto Labour’s terrible economic performance.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 10:06 pm
PREFU, the Acronym
WB is a pilot and those readers who are of the same volition will know that when we fly we have a series of checklists consisting of acronyms e.g. the downwind checks (i.e. immediately prior to landing) are; “BUMFISH” standing for; Brakes, Undercarriage, Mixture, Fuel, Instruments, Switches and Hatches.
Now for the PREFU, WB believes that the acronym according to Michael Cullen, means for the Labour Party Faithful; P for Pissing on you, R for Ripping you off, E for Exploiting you, F for Fucking you over and U for being so Understanding.
What Cullen does not understand is that for the rest of us PREFU is shorthand for PREtty much Fuck U
http://watchingbrief.blogspot.com/
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 10:10 pm
Get over the fixation over Roger Douglas! He’s just a bloke like many others, nothing demigod about him
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 10:31 pm
I don’t think you could ever say Cullen did a good job. He has allowed the government to massively increase their spending, and with most of it being spent poorly.
The pertinent question, am I better off today than 10 years ago? I say no. I mostly drive the same roads, health system is degraded, education system has become wishy washy, and the cops can’t keep violent crime under control – and petty crime is just not investigated.
Roger Douglas is the man for the job. Johnny is helen light .
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 10:48 pm
Like Rex Widerstrom, rolla_fxgt, and MyNameIsJack, I am apalled by the attitude towards beneficiaries shown by some posters.
Yes, there are lazy buggers who are happy to suck on the public teat and contribute nothing to society. Yes, government policies have encouraged welfare dependency – which is bad for the economy and society. I too hope a new Govt will try to fix some of this.
But the attitude of some – that all beneficiaries should be immediately tossed on the scrap heap – is revolting.
Some sickness beneficiaries are really sick. Some ACC claimants really do suffer the effects of debilitating accidents. Some unemployment beneficiaries need temporary help while they find a new job because they have been made redundant. Some solo mums are not in that position by choice. Etc.
An important measure of a worthwhile society is the care it gives to those in need. Eliminate abuse by all means, but do not victimise the innocent, show some compassion, and help them to resume productive lives if possible.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 10:48 pm
kaya (10) Vote: Add rating 3 Subtract rating 1 Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 8:34 pm
“Let the ag people look after their own R&D, they make plenty as it is. ”
That’s a joke I hope!
Vote:Sick.
But a joke.
Isn’t it?
October 6th, 2008 at 10:51 pm
1sttimecaller…. he is just a man but who has been there before. Do you remember 1984? Sir Roger is well equipped to help National save us from the disaster that is Cullenomics.
Ruling him out is just breathtaking arrogance. I would have thought Key would be open to help from all sources if he was really serious about pulling away from Labour?
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 11:14 pm
clintheine
He’s seen it all before, dealt with it before. He knows what the History teacher can’t grasp. Put a History teacher in charge of the economy and history repeats.
MuppetCullen thought he could do it differently this time – he failed. (“Participated” in PC speak).I must say watching the way the news was released about the opening of the books was a shrill reminder of the National govt in 1990 announcing what Labour had not been legally required to tell us. It was a shambles, thank god we now know before the election.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 11:31 pm
WebWrat
I said “Let the ag people look after their own R&D, they make plenty as it is. ”
You retort:
“That’s a joke I hope!
Sick.
But a joke.
Isn’t it?”
I don’t understand your comment, I can understand if you disagree with me but why is it a “sick joke”?
Vote:Our dairy industry is being corporatised and Fonterra has tried to list publicly. It will try again and I am sure will eventually succeed. More people are investing in dairy farming who never wore a pair of gumboots in their lives. There are fewer but bigger farms. We are told we have to pay market prices for products. Fine, I can live with that, but as with the bailout of Wall Street, these guys are big enough to stand on there own feet without taxpayer funds to help them along. It’s either a free market or it isn’t. We can spend that 700 million in many better places than there. Energy is a good place to start. What is sick about that?
October 6th, 2008 at 11:41 pm
s.russell said “Some sickness beneficiaries are really sick. Some ACC claimants really do suffer the effects of debilitating accidents. Some unemployment beneficiaries need temporary help while they find a new job because they have been made redundant. Some solo mums are not in that position by choice. Etc.”
So why is that my problem? I don’t care if their problems are legit – let their families take care of them just as I would my family. The damage of welfare is clear – and we have never had a government capable of deciding who deserves help versus those who suck off the public funds. If a minority need real help and a majority are abusers – abolish the system, reduce tax, and give us the money to give TRUE charity – charity where we give to help those we see suffer, instead of government mandated charity in which we have to give even to those (in the majority) who are not deserving. The comments here give me some hope -finally the right are really standing up for what we believe – self-responsibility. Today has shown me that there is still a germ of the right-wing in the National party and its supporters.
As a disclaimer I should say I am an ACT voter – not National. But today National is sounding like National should. Let us hope it keeps up – for the first time this election we have seen a HUGE swing to National in the comments on the MSM blogs. I think this goes to show that people don’t WANT labour lite – they want a serious and obvious change to the right.
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 11:43 pm
Hmmm..lets see, growing govt debt and years of deficits ahead, bugger all growth, stagflation destorying wages and savings, govt getting bigger and bigger, lots of people leaving the country, PM who abuses official powers…
Hasn’t NZ been here before under a chap called….Muldoon….?
Didn’t it take us years and painful reform to drag ourselves out of it?
Oh god, don’t tell we have to do through it all again in a decade if the Nats don’t get in this time?
Oh dear lord, if your up there and you really exist and you read Kiwiblog, please,please please,please,please,please, let National win the election. After all, you did create Winston Peters (although that may have been the guy with the horns on his head that did that) so you kinda owe us eh?
Vote:October 6th, 2008 at 11:46 pm
Hear hear WraithX!
I firmly believe in a National Party that is strong and that does not pander to Labour or even explores the Labour Lite possibilities. Please may it last – and I’ll be voting ACT to make sure it does.
Vote:October 7th, 2008 at 12:10 am
I think Kaya, if you did a bit of research that you will find that there are many different types of farming in New Zealand. None of them are going thru the ostrich/goat/kiwi fruit “Queen Street” boom and bust that dairy is at the moment.
You will find in your research that the average ‘Joe Blow’ cocky that hasn’t got multiple millions of dollars available to invest in grossly inflated land ($50,000 per hec) and dairy conversion, isn’t doing all that flash.
Just as a point of interest: I farm deer and sheep and both my wife and myself go out to work to make ends meet.
Vote:October 7th, 2008 at 1:33 am
I have not been able to find the 30.1% peak debt figure you mention in the MSM and a quick look through the PREFU doc didn’t turn it up either. Where did you get that number?
[DPF: From the Treasury Secretary in his powerpoint presentation]
Vote:October 7th, 2008 at 8:55 am
That sheds a bit of light on things. I still can’t get a grip on why it’s Cullen’s fault that there ‘will’ be deficits in 5 or more years after he has been voted out. I suspect not everyone here could explain that either.
Vote:October 7th, 2008 at 8:58 am
You need to invest now for the future.
By pissing up surpluses over the past few years on non-productive investment kullen has committed NZ to another cycle of catchup.
Vote:October 7th, 2008 at 9:15 am
Aha!
Vote:October 7th, 2008 at 9:36 am
Though surely a lot of debt reduction is a productive investment, of sorts.
Vote:October 7th, 2008 at 9:45 am
Surely the last word on all this is 2005. In 2005 National was advocating tax-cuts to stimulate the economy. Cullen replied that it was an “ideological burp” and failed to act in the necessary manner at the time. Instead he ratcheted up spending and has led us into the recession we now face.
Vote:We can never know what would have been the result of tax-cuts after 2005, but i have little doubt that they were the correct thing to do at the time. That Cullen failed the big test at that point shows how hopelessly out of his depth he is and why he needs to be removed as the economy ploughs through the downturn.
October 7th, 2008 at 9:47 am
Yeah, expat basically nailed it.
Cullen has basically setup an expenditure path that depended on the economy growing at 3%+ per year. Things like nationalising railways commits the Govt to spending more money each year (in this case, to prop up the losses). Increased immigration means more expenditures on education & health are now built into the Government accounts.
The gamble might payoff if that spending is say ‘high quality’. The lower productivity growth suggests rather brutally, that this has not been the case. This is not a new revelation.
Now that the economy is hitting a rough patch, deficits will be the norm. External conditions is going to make the slowdown even more harsh, so Cullens’ not to blame for that. But the golden years weren’t going to last.
The reason for certain ire in economic commentators is that the best chance we had to do something about productivity has been pissed away. Credit internationally is no longer cheap. Surpluses are gone. We don’t need a trainset. We needed power plants.
Vote:October 7th, 2008 at 9:53 am
Though surely a lot of debt reduction is a productive investment, of sorts.
Depends. Consider this example- if you own a farm you’re probably in debt (especially in early stages). So the question is whether what’s the more productive investment. Reducing the size of debt and not buying a tractor and some fencing, or buying a tractor and some fencing to increase output?
The payoff from debt reduction was that the Govt’s debt servicing dropped dramatically. That freed up money to spend on other things. Did Cullen spend it on say, new power plants or other infrastructure? Or did Cullen spend it on an expanded system of middle-class welfare?
Vote:October 7th, 2008 at 9:56 am
expat did do a good job didn’t he – but you’ve helped to expand further. Increased immigration could be a good thing in terms of meeting skills shortages though, depending on the ‘quality’ of the immigrants.
Not sure where I heard this (has been a lot of comment flying all over the place), but now businesses will have to concentrate on productivity growth, rather than…X
Vote:October 7th, 2008 at 10:48 am
Yes, I suppose it’s a question of whether you’d be more productive not having 4% interest payments to attend to or you’re stimulating greater growth in the economy at large too.
Vote:October 7th, 2008 at 11:36 am
SO HERE’S THE THING.
You get a new job paying twice what the old one paid. Then your spouse does the same thing. Being good Kiwis what do you do?
FIRST you pay off the mortgage and any other misc. debts you might have.
NEXT you bung a pile into a retirement pot so you know you’re going to be OK in the later years.
THEN you indulge in a bit of living high on the hog!
unless you are a couple called Michael and Helen Labour, in which case you . . .
BUY a pile of toys that no one else wants,
GIVE money to people who, earning in some cases $150,000 a year, don’t need it
EMPLOY thousands in ‘make-work’ positions (policy writers and analysts) to show how good you are for the economy
TAKE more money off people who work hard and earn well to pay for your excesses
The kiwi dream of a debt free home was wasted on Mr. and Ms. Labour. However, they do plan on borrowing over the next few years to pay the grocery, milk and clothing bills! God Defend New Zealand!
Vote:October 7th, 2008 at 11:46 am
I don’t think make-work could be construed as good for the economy as such – maybe just the unemployment rate?
Vote:October 7th, 2008 at 4:48 pm
The trouble with ‘work for the dole’ is that it’s a sink for money needed to hire lots of do-gooder woolly pullies to run the scheme and supervise unwilling workers.
Vote:October 8th, 2008 at 3:16 am
Bludging for Families has now become unaffordable and must be immediately scrapped.
Vote:October 8th, 2008 at 3:58 am
artemisia says at 4:48 pm:
Don’t forget that bludgers are work shy. If the only way to get a benefit was to work all day every day for it then the number applying would be considerably smaller. A desirable result.
Vote:October 8th, 2008 at 5:35 am
WFF would be OK if it was aimed at supporting workers more than part time bludgers.
Why isnt child care tax deductable? Its costs e-fucking-nuff considerings its already subsidised by the gummint.
Why cant int payments on housing loans be tax deductable?
Why cant health and life insurance be tax deductable?
Why cant Labour get it through their fucking thick skulls that people want choices to get ahead not some half arse handout voucher system.
Thats why labour are fucked, they dont listen, they tell.
Rant over, normal transmission resumes.
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