Could specials change any electorates?

November 17th, 2008 at 7:00 am by David Farrar

I’ve previously blogged on whether specials may change any allocation of List MPs. The other question is whether any seats held by narrow majorities could change due to specials. The answer is yes, but unlikely.

The most marginal seat is got 48.6% of the vote to 47.6% for . There were 32,029 valid votes. There are 2,351 known specials for the seat and we estimate 1/70th of the 32,000 overseas specials, so the numebr of specials is predicted to be 2,808.

The specials would have to be 6.1% better for Labour and worse for National for Harry to win. Or in other words they would need to go Harry’s way 53.7% to 42.5%.

In beat by 1,181 votes. However there are a large 6,420 specials plus overseas votes. Niiki beat Judith 43.0% to 38.8%. Judith would need to win the specials 49.5% to 32.3% to close the gap.

In , would need specials to go her way 53.3% to 32.2% – 12.1% better than on the day.

New Plymouth looks to be the only seat which could seriously change, and even that isn’t very likely.

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5 Responses to “Could specials change any electorates?”

  1. Fibreman (18 comments) says:

    When are the specials likely to be counted / announced? I always thought it was a week after the Gen. Election but that’s come and gone now.

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  2. anonymouse (716 comments) says:

    Specials have to be in the hands of the returning officer with in 10 days of the election ( inc overseas votes), so that is the 18th, they are hoping to announce the specials by 2pm Sat 22nd,

    I am more interested in what happens to the Overhang, will it remain at 2, or could it fall to 1,
    DPF, what would the total Maori party vote have to rise to for them to be entitled to 4 not 3 seat?

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  3. Right of way is Way of Right (1,122 comments) says:

    Rimutaka could throw up a curve ball. Richard Whiteside is about 600 votes behind, and the left vote could be split between the Labour MP and Ron Mark. Could be worth keeping an eye on.

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  4. metcalph (1,430 comments) says:

    What about the Waimak? Clayton has a majority of 500 with 2000 specials yet to be counted.

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