The crisis in Canada
Extraordinary things have been happening in Canada. Just two months ago they had a general election, and as I blogged at the time it was very sucessful for the incumbent minority Conservative Government of Stephen Harper. They missed out on winning a majority in Parliament (something very hard to do) but they gained 19 seats, the Liberals lost 27.
It was such a trouncing that the Leader of the Liberal Party, Stéphane Dion, announced he was resigning as Leader, and elections are underway to select his replacement. These take several months as they involve party members. Anyway next week Dion may become the 23rd Prime Minister of Cabinet. How? Well it’s an intriguing story.
First of all you need to understand that the tradition in Canada is that the largest party gets to form the Government, even as a minority. They may not last the full term, but they usually get a couple of years at least of governing. On top of the the two main parties you have the New Democratic Party which is like the Alliance in NZ and generally wins seats in British Colombia in the west, plus the Bloc Québécois who win most of the seats in Quebec and are a separatist party.
Generally after every election these two smaller parties will give confidence and supply to the largest party, even though NDP is a lot closer to Liberals than Conservatives. They do not guarantee it for the full term, but if they change their mind, normally it triggers a new election.
After the October election, the Conservatives had support from both the NDP and the Bloc. It was business as normal. But the credit crisis hit, and the response from the Conservatives was to trim Government spending such as no pay incraeses for Judges, restrictions on MPs travel, cancellign Xmas bonus for publuic servants. This was bad enough for the leftwing parties, but even worse Harper’s Government announced it would save money by trimming the $27 million of taxpayer state funding for political parties.
This threat to the other parties funding base (since state funding they had become very dependent on it) was intolerable, so they got together to roll the Government on the grounds of an inadequate response to the credit crisis.
Now what they have done is not force a new election, but they have formed a Government in waiting. The Liberal, NDP and Bloc parties have written to the Governor-General announcing they wish to form a new Government being a Liberal-NDP coalition, with support from the Bloc.
The Liberal and NDP parties are usually fiercious rivals, but have put that aside to agree NDP get one quarter of the Cabinet seats in the first ever coalition between them.
But the extraordinary thing is that they have agreed to make Stéphane Dion Prime Minister despite Dion getting the worst result in history for the Liberals – just 26%. He will be PM for half a year or so until the Liberals elect a new leader.
Now this is all constitutional – Parliament can form whatever Government it wants. But is it what the Canadian people wanted or voted for? There was no pre-election possibility of NDP and the Bloc supporting the Liberals if they came second.
It also creates a headache for the Governor-General (who is flying home urgently from an overseas trip) as she has to decide what to do given the following scenarios:
- PM Harper asks the Governor-General to prorogue Parliament until next year. The Governor-General has the legal right to refuse a request from the prime minister to prorogue, and in NZ would arguably refuse such a request as the PM can no longer demonstrate the confidence of the House. But most experts in Canada say the GG would grant the request. The prorogue would mean that the no confidence vote scheduled for Monday would never be put. Parliament only has to meet once a year, so it could be prorogued until late next year in theory.
- PM Harper asks the Governor-General to call a new election. Again the same dilemma – does the GG follow the advice of a PM that no longer has the confidence of the House?
- Parliament is prorogued but the Opposition Leader demands the GG appoint him Prime Minister as he has a majority of MPs supporting him. Does the GG have to wait for a confidence vote to determine that the House has lost confidence? In NZ I would say they do not, but in Canada this is new territory.
In 1926 the Canadian Governor-General, Lord Byng refused a request by Prime Minister King for a general election as Byng did not have the confidence of the House.
The bigger question is what will the public make of it. The Conservatives already have ads playing quoting a speech from Dion during the last election campaign in which he ruled out a coalition with the NDP. “You cannot have a coalition with a party that has a platform that would be damaging for the economy, period,” he says in the clip.
The Conservatives are using the lines that Dion has done a deal with the socialist and the separatists to seize power. Now that is emotive but little things can matter to people. When the three opposition leaders announced their agreement to change the Government, the Canadian flag backdrop was removed from the room of their press conference because the separatists don’t believe in Canada existing in its current form.
It is not impossible that this deal could see other provinces such as Alberta threaten to leave Canada. Also the Bloc have only promised support to the new Government in waiting until June 2010, so more elections are likely at some stage.
Also in a twist to the crisis, the NDP accidentially sent details of one of their conference calls to a Conservative MP and he taped the call and released it to the media. It revealed that the NDP had been trying to get the Bloc to agree to support a new Government for longer than previously though. The NDP are asking for Police to prosecute the Conservatives over the recording.
It is going to be fascinating to see what the PM does, what the Governor-General does and also what the Canadian public do.
December 3rd, 2008 at 3:50 pm
My head hurts!
No wonder the Cannucks find fishing through a small ice hole entertaining!!
December 3rd, 2008 at 4:00 pm
The Greens have declared their support for any Liberal/NDP/Bloc coalition.
December 3rd, 2008 at 4:10 pm
By how many states will the USA grow?
December 3rd, 2008 at 4:13 pm
“The Greens have declared their support for any Liberal/NDP/Bloc coalition.”
That’s all very nice but a little irrelevant really. The Greens are not even represented in Parliament (and indeed, have never won a seat), so you might as well say that the Communist Party of Canada also support the proposed coalition.
December 3rd, 2008 at 4:20 pm
Jane Young has also blogged on this over at Pundit.
http://www.pundit.co.nz/content/canada-crashes-towards-crisis-as-pm-panics
From her take, Stephen Harper has brought most of this on himself. I suppose another option could be for the Conservatives to roll him and try to repair some of the damage he’s caused.
December 3rd, 2008 at 4:32 pm
As a Canadian who moved here more than 17 years ago, I have to say that this is the most bizarre event to occur in a very very long time. It doesn’t help that it is Tweedle-Dee (Harper) vs Tweedle-Dum (Dion). Neither is particularly popular, neither commands the support of the Canadian people. My father (a retired industrial management accountant) traditionally votes Conservative, and this time he held his nose and went for Harper.
What is interesting is that in the past, when an early election was forced, or if the party with the largest votes did NOT become the government, those smaller parties forcing their way in were punished by the electorate. So I suspect the NDP and Bloc will be seen to be forcing an unpopular choice on the people. HOWEVER, when the Conservatives were in a minority government in the mid 70’s, they (rightly) refused to be blackmailed by the small Social Credit party into giving them more power and influence. The result? The Social Credit Party was completely wiped out BUT the Progressive Conservative Party (the Conservatives before their alliance with a more right-wing party in the last decade) were also punished for not more effectively managing the situation. The same would happen now, to some extent, except all would be punished in some way.
So this time who KNOWS where the chips may fall. Either way, it won’t be pretty. To a large extent it’s the Canadian people who will now be punished, and they won’t forget this.
December 3rd, 2008 at 4:32 pm
Canada is a warning to us all.
Very liberal country = country with no leadership.
December 3rd, 2008 at 4:39 pm
Thanks for the excellent summary David. Most interesting.
I suppose something similar could’ve happened here if Winston Peter’s through his toys out of the cot – which would’ve been most entertaining for political junkies. In his younger days Winston would’ve gone feral.
December 3rd, 2008 at 4:41 pm
Actually, the Canadian “government” (does it exist right now?) is relatively right-wing, especially for Canada. So Shunda, your comment doesn’t hold in this case. Sorry. What DOES fit is that BOTH major party leaders are seen as either arrogant, or out of touch, or just a few bricks short of a load, or some combination of all three.
They make Joe Clark (his nickname in the 70’s was “Joe Who?”) look like a Rhodes scholar!
December 3rd, 2008 at 4:50 pm
The Greens got 940,747 votes and Dion is likely to offer May a Senate seat for a deal on these voters becoming pro-coalition if an election is required, even in a place the size of Canada a million odd votes are not irrelevant. I might as well point out that these numbers are qualtitatively different from the Communists who got 3,639 votes and will not be offered any Senate seat.
December 3rd, 2008 at 4:51 pm
P.S. For those not familiar with Joe Clark, he was actually very bright but had no street smarts. He bumbled along and somehow got the Conservatives enough seats to be PM, but only for 6 months. I cannot think of anyone comparable in NZ politics. Early John Howard comes close, but even Howard managed better.
December 3rd, 2008 at 4:54 pm
Canada has been a socialist basket case ever since that commie idiot Trudeau with the equally deranged wife was PM.
Here’s some stuff from a 2000 article by Eric Margolis. Read it and see if you can detect any similarities between Canada and its government and any other country recently freed from the death grip of the left.
————————————
Canada’s ‘just’ and ‘compassionate’ society is built on a mountain of debt, passed on to coming generations.
In 1970, Canda had one of the lowest debts -and lowest taxes – among industrial nations. Today, Canada ranks as one of three leading debtor nations, with socialist-run Belgium and Italy. While Ottawa’s annual deficit was ended by imposing crushing taxes, the monster debt overhang remains.
Behind the charade of peacekeeping, Trudeau destroyed Canada’s once powerful armed forces, leaving the nation a helpless military eunuch, with virtually no international influence, and totally dependant on the much-reviled ‘aggressive’ US for national defense.
The crown jewel of Canadian socialism, state-run medicine, is a mess. ‘The cruel, heartless, capitalist’ US spends 13.5% of national income on health; Canada spends 9.5%. Unemployment in Canada’s ‘compassionate, gentler’ society has run 3.5-5 points higher than in the US. Canada’s smartest, most entreprenurial people are fleeing south. Canada has become an economic, intellectual and cultural backwater – bureaucratic Ottawa, writ large.
Trudeau was ardently anti-American, even allowing Cuba’s intelligence service to operate against the US from Montreal. He despised the free market, tried to transform Canada into another socialist Sweden, and fawned on marxist dictators like Mao, Nyere, and Castro.
Thirty years ago, Canada was rich, powerful and respected. Three decades of bullying Trudeau socialism undermined Canada’s economy, the core of a nation’s strength, and encouraged separatism in Quebec.
The immense historic economic damage inflicted by Trudeau and his successors on Canada may have fatally weakened this once robust nation to the point where joining the US becomes inevitable. This prospect, trillions in debt, and a 66 cent Canadian rupee are Trudeau’s real legacy.
The great grandchildren of today’s Canadians will still be paying for Pierre Trudeau’s “just and compassionate society.”
October 8, 2000
Eric S. Margolis
December 3rd, 2008 at 5:04 pm
I would take Margolis’ views with a BIG grain of salt. I didn’t recognise his name, so looked him up. He is an American journalist, writing for the Toronto Sun (akin to the English Sun paper, and even has a Page 3 girl), so his views are certainly not without bias.
I would however agree that Trudeau was operating from a certain rather distorted world view. But Margolis’ views are also from another at least as equally (if not more) distorted world view.
December 3rd, 2008 at 5:15 pm
A journalist who because he is an American and because he writes for the Toronto Sun is therefore adjudged as baised?? Great logic there boyo. Hate to be the accused in any courtroom you were ever in charge of.
December 3rd, 2008 at 5:50 pm
DPF is telling only part of the story here.
Yes, the Tories threatened to remove the public funding of parties. But what DPF doesn’t say is that in Canada there is a limit of $1100 on donations to political parties from individuals, and a complete ban on unions or companies giving any money to parties. The quid pro quo for the parties agreeing to these limits was that the state would provide funds to replace the private money forgone. Now, the Tories weren’t going to lift these donation limits – so parties would be starved of both public and private funds. Why would the Tories do this? Because the Tories are relatively flush (due to a massive direct mail campaign), so they’d still have some money to fight future elections, while none of their opponents would. In other words, the “economic crisis” was used as a fig-leaf to f*ck over the other parties.
(Those of you who were somewhat unhappy about the EFA (remember how that was “Labour stealing the election”) might understand why the opposition went ballistic at this – unless it’s OK for the right to “screw the scrum” in this way!)
Further, the Tories proposed no new stimulus measures to help the economy, even claiming they could still run surpluses, even as the unemployment rate started to rise and businesses (such as the car industry) started to collapse. And they took the opportunity to put a three year ban on civil servants going on strike.
In a nutshell, the Tories (really Stephen Harper) decided they’d act like they had won a resounding majority at the last election, when in fact they got 37.6% of the vote. (BTW, majority governments in Canada are not so hard to win – it’s only since 2004 that minorities have been the norm.) So the opposition have rebelled. And, under a Westminster system, Parliament chooses the government. Arguing that people “didn’t vote for this” is fatuous … 62% of Canadians didn’t vote for Harper and the Tories either … so no-one has a clear “democratic mandate to govern” here.
Oh – the final proof that what is happening here is kosher? It’s exactly what Stephen Harper argued should take place in 2005, when he was in opposition and it looked like the ruling minority Liberal Government might lose the confidence of the House.
[DPF: You forgot to mention that the party funding measures were withdrawn and that the Opposition are refusing to even wait for the stimulus package. But hey I'm going to enjoy watching Dion become the most hated man in Canada]
December 3rd, 2008 at 5:53 pm
Sounds to me like the grasshoppers in Canada are starting to feel the cold chill of winter, our turn is coming and I just can’t wait for the socialists to come to the realisation that life doesn’t come with a guarantee, despite what nanny state told them.
December 3rd, 2008 at 6:04 pm
The Canucks are lucky they are basicly part of the US or they would have been invaded by the Russkis years ago, they probably would have welcomed it. They should just get rid of the giant chips they carry on each shoulder and decide how many US states they want to become. Still I am not sure if the US would want to accept a load of arrogant Froggie tossers and ex Pommie moose shaggers as citizens when it is easier to get wetbacks to swell your working classes and whats more they don’t whinge as much.
December 3rd, 2008 at 6:10 pm
Bring Back Pierre!
Mr. Trudeau was the ONLY Canadian Prime Minister that had a big enough sense of humour to run Canada’s Federal Government. (He also had a similar situation resulting in his last Primministership!)
He also made Joe Who (anyone remember him) wait 4 years before they could celebrate his final departure from Politics – but that’s another story!
As my children regularly sing
“God keep our land
Glorious and free
Oh! Canada we stand on guard for thee
Though now Kiwi we stand on guard for thee”.
Guess they’ll have to go ‘home’ and vote
Eh?
December 3rd, 2008 at 6:11 pm
Canadians named Dion haven’t produced anything much of value so far, I have to say. If anything, it’s bloody horrendous nails-on-a-blackboard stuff
This does put Michaelle Jean in an interesting position. Anyone have a feel for her probable thinking? I was familiar enough with Adrienne Clarkson to be able to hazard a guess, but I know nothing at all about Jean.
Given that, as AG points out above, there’s no clear mandate for either “side” it’s presumably going to come down to the Governor General making a very personal judgement as to what’s best for the country.
December 3rd, 2008 at 6:15 pm
I always thought “The Lumberjack Song” by Monty Python was the Canadian National Anthem. It epitomises Canadian culture really well I thought. Maybe you should teach it to your sprogs Dave.
December 3rd, 2008 at 6:20 pm
Dont be cruel Rex. Celine sang the theme song from “Titanic” all about a sinking ship perhaps a new rendition of the Canadian (Lumberjack) Anthem would be appropriate as her next hit.
December 3rd, 2008 at 6:28 pm
Rex,
“This does put Michaelle Jean in an interesting position. Anyone have a feel for her probable thinking?”
I haven’t seen any speculation on this – aside from saying she’d “want to talk” with Harper before granting any dissolution.
In its coverage of “what happens next?”, the National Post (Canada’s right-of-center paper) includes a suggestion that Harper could advise the Queen to sack Jean and appoint a GG sure to give him a dissolution. That would, I think, be the nuclear option … maybe the trigger to move Canada to a republic?
December 3rd, 2008 at 7:09 pm
AG said “Under a Westminster system, Parliament chooses the government.”
The mythical 5-headed beast, er, Government reportedly glimpsed in NZ, now sighted in Canada?
December 3rd, 2008 at 7:48 pm
AG notes:
[Sad though it is that I'm getting excited over antiquated constitutional conventions... thank goodness Kevin Rudd's ridiculous proposed net "purity of thought and deed" net filter won't be triggered by such things... I think]
That’d just throw the hot potato squarely in the lap of the Queen, who (rightly IMHO) tends to defer to her local representatives on such matters, figuring that they have the depth of knowledge and are closer to being able to understand what the people want. She certainly didn’t stop Sir John Kerr famously tossing Gough Whitlam out of office. But then again even Gough wouldn’t have had the chutzpah to ring Buck House and ask her to flip Kerr for a GG more accommodating to his whims.
Is the National Post trying to stir things up, or is it remotely possible that Harper would set off such a constitutional high explosive??!!
[DPF: Actually Kerr was worried Whitlam would get the Queen to sack him before he could sack Whitlam, hence why he kept his intentions a secret]
December 3rd, 2008 at 8:05 pm
I think the Post was simply including it amongst the range of alternatives on offer, from the most likely to the hypothetical (based, incidentally, on the possibility this could have happened in Aussie in the Kerr/Whitlam stand-off!) What would Liz do if it were thrown to her? No idea …
[DPF: The general opinion of constitutional experts is the Queen must follow the advice of her PM, and it is not her job to ascertain the confidence of the House]
December 3rd, 2008 at 8:10 pm
Johnboy
The baby sprog is 27, I think he knows the words.
BTW, it’s the British Colombian Anthem – not enough girlies to go around over there!
December 3rd, 2008 at 8:16 pm
“Just a moose or two or a caribou”. As that other old Canadian anthem goes.
December 3rd, 2008 at 9:39 pm
DPF says “When the three opposition leaders announced their agreement to change the Government, the Canadian flag backdrop was removed from the room of their press conference because the separatists don’t believe in Canada existing in its current form.”
Have a look at:
http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/posted/archive/2008/12/02/fact-check-no-flag-behind-the-coalition-photo-op.aspx
There were three Canadian flags clearly visible behind the party leaders. DPF was simply channeling Harper’s “let’s make sh*t up” talking points … part of the vast right wing conspiracy at work?
December 3rd, 2008 at 9:44 pm
owww keeeey then, what arrrr ya talking aboot.
Here’s a funny song
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rt1_6uz_sVU
Its quite good
December 3rd, 2008 at 9:59 pm
If we only got rid of MMP we wouldn’t be subject to the manipulations of small political minorities. This is of course a feature of proportional systems (where shock horror most voters get the politicians they voted for)
If we do dump MMP we could also adopt a second chamber much like the oh so useful Canadian Senate.
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:12 pm
Chris,
Canada’s First Past the Post voting system gets messed up by their extreme regionalism (especially the Quebec factor). In fact, it militates against parties with a truly national appeal (witness the Greens – a significant cross-country appeal, just not enough voters in any one riding to gain MPs). Unfortunately, the two provinces to seriously consider PR voting didn’t end up adopting it … be interesting to see what the present events do to that debate at a national level.
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:48 pm
Ah yes, even in the darkest days of Helengrad, one could still get down on one’s knees and thank the good Lord that, however bad the Labour Government was, it still wasn’t as bad as whatever Canada had to put up with.
Alberta should secede and leave the rest to rot I reckon
P
December 3rd, 2008 at 11:50 pm
Another good reason my New Zealand shouldn’t adopt state funding of political parties. Let Labour and the Greens beg for money from the public.
December 4th, 2008 at 3:42 pm
Here is the text of the accord between the Liberal Party and the New Democratic Party
http://www.cbc.ca/news/pdf/081201_Accord_en.pdf
December 5th, 2008 at 1:59 pm
This was my sister’s reaction when I told her it made the news here:
“I find it actually scary. I never liked the Liberal leader Stephen Dion and now he has aligned himself with the
likes of Jack Layton of the NDP and the BLOC for heaven sakes. Whatever happened to democracy? The
conservatives were voted in, yes a minority but still. No one voted for a “coalition” government made up
of the other parties. It is all up to the Governor General now who wasn’t even born in this country.
It is pretty scary stuff. They should all just grow up!!!”
Politicians? Grow up? I think I see a new Tui ad in the works …
December 5th, 2008 at 7:29 pm
Actually if anyone paid attention, they would know that the three parties collaborated extensively in an ‘anything but conservative’ campaign. It appears to have paid off (although we will never know what would have happened) since the conservatives were denied a majority. Clearly then the majority* of people did not want a conservative majority government they wanted a government which has the support of their party whatever that was (which was not conservative). The conservatives have lost the support of all other three and there is now a government in waiting which has the apparent support of a majority of voters (since the voters put their trust in whatever party they voted for to form the government which best represents their interests and that is no longer the conservative government).
This is simply a maturation of Canadian politics. Sadly Stephen Harper is one of the only ones standing in the way. For all those conspiracy theorists saying it’s all about the state funding, well no party had denied state funding is a component for why they no longer support the conservatives. Actually the conservative government already abandoned the idea because of the fierce opposition to it. So clearly the opposition is very public and well known. However the parties are STILL opposed to the conservative government and furthermore the conservative party itself has in fact demonstrated that some of the ground work for this was laid back several months ago (which is not surprising given the ‘anything but conservative’ campaign). Clearly then, the claim it’s all about the state funding is bullshit, in fact this has been in the works for a while and Stephen Harper’s government sealed his fate when he showed he has absolutely no idea how to handle the crisis by the crap proposal which was oppose by all others, and not just because of the state funding.
*Indeed while I’ve never looked at the results, I presume as with all countries that use FPTP the three smaller parties actually gained a larger share of the vote then they received in seats so it’s even more obvious that the conservative government no longer command the support of a majority of voters
December 5th, 2008 at 9:11 pm
Well it had to happen, Harper got “downfalled”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xe-DFZA6pR0