Predictions for 2019

Once again I emulate the annual Fairfax predictions, with my own. Here’s my 20 for 2019:

  1. NZ First will be on or below 4% in most public polls in 2019
  2. ACT will change its name to the “Freedom” party.
  3. By the end of 2019 (after two years) the Government will not have achieved even 3% of its ten year targets for houses or trees
  4. At least one National List MP will retire in 2019
  5. The End of Life Choice Bill will pass its third reading, but be subject to a referendum
  6. At least one further Minister will be gone by the end of 2019
  7. The official cash rate will stay constant in 2019
  8. A new political party will be registered in 2019
  9. TOP will not make 0.5% in any public poll
  10. The Government’s projected surplus in the 2019 Budget will be less than the surplus for 2017/18
  11. The Government will fail to get the numbers in the House for a comprehensive Capital Gains Tax
  12. Bill Shorten will become Prime Minister of Australia
  13. Brexit will not occur on 29 March 2019
  14. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for September 2019 will be the same or higher than September 2019
  15. Kelvin Davis will be replaced as Deputy Leader of the Labour Party
  16. Donald Trump will not get $5 billion for his wall so will back down on the Government shut down
  17. The parliamentary boundaries revision will be delayed until after the 2020 election due to the census failure
  18. Justin Trudeau will be re-elected Prime Minister of Canada, but the Liberals will be a minority, not majority, Government
  19. Kris Faafoi will be promoted to Cabinet
  20. The House Judiciary Committee will commence impeachment hearings against Donald Trump in 2019

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