Predictions for 2019
Once again I emulate the annual Fairfax predictions, with my own. Here’s my 20 for 2019:
- NZ First will be on or below 4% in most public polls in 2019
- ACT will change its name to the “Freedom” party.
- By the end of 2019 (after two years) the Government will not have achieved even 3% of its ten year targets for houses or trees
- At least one National List MP will retire in 2019
- The End of Life Choice Bill will pass its third reading, but be subject to a referendum
- At least one further Minister will be gone by the end of 2019
- The official cash rate will stay constant in 2019
- A new political party will be registered in 2019
- TOP will not make 0.5% in any public poll
- The Government’s projected surplus in the 2019 Budget will be less than the surplus for 2017/18
- The Government will fail to get the numbers in the House for a comprehensive Capital Gains Tax
- Bill Shorten will become Prime Minister of Australia
- Brexit will not occur on 29 March 2019
- The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for September 2019 will be the same or higher than September 2019
- Kelvin Davis will be replaced as Deputy Leader of the Labour Party
- Donald Trump will not get $5 billion for his wall so will back down on the Government shut down
- The parliamentary boundaries revision will be delayed until after the 2020 election due to the census failure
- Justin Trudeau will be re-elected Prime Minister of Canada, but the Liberals will be a minority, not majority, Government
- Kris Faafoi will be promoted to Cabinet
- The House Judiciary Committee will commence impeachment hearings against Donald Trump in 2019