Predictions for 2020

Once again I emulate the annual Fairfax predictions, with my own. Here’s my 20 for 2020:

  1. NZ First will not make 5% in the 2020 election
  2. ACT will gain at least a second MP.
  3. By the end of 2020 (after three years) the Government will not have achieved even 5% of its ten year targets for houses or trees
  4. National will win more electorate seats in 2020 than 2017
  5. The End of Life Choice Bill referendum will pass
  6. The Cannabis legalisation referendum will fail
  7. No new political party will enter Parliament in 2020
  8. The Government’s 2019/20 accounts will breach their Fiscal Responsibility Rules
  9. The Government will scrap the Fiscal Responsibility Rules
  10. Brexit will occur on 31 January 2020
  11. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for September 2020 will be the same or higher than September 2019
  12. James Shaw will have a leadership challenge but win
  13. Pete Buttigieg will win the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary
  14. Donald Trump will win re-election if the nominee is Warren or Sanders but lose to Biden or Buttigieg or Bloomberg
  15. Rebecca Long-Bailey will replace Jeremy Corbun as UK Labour Leader
  16. There won’t be a firm commitment to shift the Ports of Auckland to Northland, even though NZ First will pretend there is.
  17. Shane Jones will stand in Northland and lose.
  18. Jacinda Ardern will get married before the general election
  19. The Government will back the proposed NZME/Stuff merger to the Commerce Commission
  20. Parliament will not vote to restore voting rights to some prisoners before the 2020 election

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