Scoring my 2019 predictions

In December 2018 I did my normal 20 predictions for the forthcoming year.  In 2018 I scored myself 12/20. How did 2019 go?

  1. NZ First will be on or below 4% in most public polls in 2019. Were at or below 4% in 6/9 polls. 1/1
  2. ACT will change its name to the “Freedom” party. Their website logo is “ACT for freedom” so 0.5/1
  3. By the end of 2019 (after two years) the Government will not have achieved even 3% of its ten year targets for houses or trees. They are at 0.3% for houses and 2.5% for trees so 1/1
  4. At least one National List MP will retire in 2019. Nuk Korako retired so 1/1
  5. The End of Life Choice Bill will pass its third reading, but be subject to a referendum. 1/1
  6. At least one further Minister will be gone by the end of 2019. Twyford sacked as Housing Minister but not from Ministry so 0.5/1
  7. The official cash rate will stay constant in 2019. Dropped 0.75 so 0/1
  8. A new political party will be registered in 2019. Welcome to Sustainable NZ and Vision NZ. 1/1
  9. TOP will not make 0.5% in any public poll. They made 0.9% so 0/1
  10. The Government’s projected surplus in the 2019 Budget will be less than the surplus for 2017/18. The 17/18 surplus was $5.5b. The 2019 Budget was for $3.5b (and is now projected to be a deficit) so 1/1
  11. The Government will fail to get the numbers in the House for a comprehensive Capital Gains Tax. 1/1
  12. Bill Shorten will become Prime Minister of Australia. Glad to be wrong and 0/1
  13. Brexit will not occur on 29 March 2019. 1/1
  14. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for September 2019 will be the same or higher than September 2018. It was 4.2% compared to 4.0% so 1/1
  15. Kelvin Davis will be replaced as Deputy Leader of the Labour Party. Tempted to give myself a half mark as they hide him whenever he is meant to be Acting PM but technically still there even though Robbo is the de facto Deputy Leader. 0/1
  16. Donald Trump will not get $5 billion for his wall so will back down on the Government shut down. Yep 1/1
  17. The parliamentary boundaries revision will be delayed until after the 2020 election due to the census failure. Nope so 0/1
  18. Justin Trudeau will be re-elected Prime Minister of Canada, but the Liberals will be a minority, not majority, Government. Got that right 1/1
  19. Kris Faafoi will be promoted to Cabinet. Also 1/1
  20. The House Judiciary Committee will commence impeachment hearings against Donald Trump in 2019. Not bad for back in December 2018 – 1/1

So all up 14/20 – happy with that.

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