Scoring my 2018 predictions

In December 2017 I did my normal 20 predictions for the forthcoming year.  In 2017 I scored myself 12/20. How did 2018 go?

  1. NZ First will be on or below 5% in most public polls in 2018: Not exceeded 5% in a single poll 1/1
  2. Bill English will remain National Party Leader: Didn’t take long for that to be wrong 0/1
  3. By the end of 2018 the Government will not have achieved even 1% of its ten year targets for houses or trees: They need 1,000 houses and 10 million trees. They have built 33 houses. They have directly funded 7.6 million trees for planting so that is a double fail and 1/1
  4. At least three National List MPs will retire in 2018: English, Joyce and Finlayson: 1/1
  5. Eugenie Sage will be elected Greens female co-leader. I over-estimated their judgment. 0/1
  6. The End of Life Choice Bill will pass its third reading. Has been delayed. Could argue a half mark as not been defeated but will score 0/1
  7. At least one Minister will be gone by the end of the year: Only one! 1/1
  8. The official cash rate will stay constant in 2018. Correct 1/1
  9. A new political party will be registered in 2018. Conservative Party changed their name but not close enough so 0/1
  10. Geoff Simmons will be annointed or elected Leader of TOP: Elected. 1/1
  11. The Green Party will have a new Chief of Staff in 2018. No change. 0/1
  12. The Government will increase the operating allowances for future years in the 2018 Budget. Of course they did. 1/1
  13. Lance O’Sullivan will be elected male co-leader of the Maori Party. Not yet anyway 0/1
  14. The Tax Working Group will recommend a Capital Gains Tax. Cullen has said they are so I’m giving this 1/1
  15. There will be a leadership spill in the Australian Liberal Party. Heh too easy. 1/1
  16. NZ First will declare there were no donations received over $15,000 to the Electoral Commission. And we believe them. 1/1
  17. Lisa Owen will be the next Political Editor for Newshub. Got Checkpoint instead 0/1
  18. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for September 2018 will be the same or higher than September 2017. Nope well down. 0/1
  19. An electorate MP will resign their seat in 2018 triggering a by-election. Thank you Dr Coleman 1/1
  20. An MP will get pregnant in 2018. I picked it first! 1/1

I got 12/20 again.

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