Little for New Plymouth?
March 15th, 2010 at 10:00 am by David FarrarThe Taranaki Daily News reports:
Labour Party top-dog Andrew Little could step forward for a tilt at the New Plymouth electorate seat in next year’s national elections.
Mr Little, the party’s president and touted by many as a future Labour leader and prime minister, has refused to rule out the possibility.
“It’s certainly no secret I want to get into Parliament next year,” he told the Taranaki Daily News yesterday.
“As to how I do that, or where, I’ve made no decisions.”
He said he hopes to have made a decision within the next two or three months and wouldn’t rule out running in New Plymouth.
This is no surprise. The fact that Labour did not open nominations for New Plymouth at the same time as the other seats they lost, was obviously to keep options open for their President.
Andrew can of course just place himself at No 3 on the list, and be assured of entering Parliament that way. However a seat is almost a pre-requisite to becoming leader.
The city electorate is often viewed as a swing seat come election time and in 2008 National candidate Jonathan Young squeaked in past Labour’s 15-year encumbent MP Harry Duynhoven, with the tightest margin in the country – just 105 votes.
Mr Little has strong personal and family links to New Plymouth, having grown up here.
It was a very tight contest between Young and Duynhoven, but that is not the same thing as being a marginal seat between National and Labour.
While the electorate vote margin was only 0.2%, the party vote margin was a whopping 19.1%. Now nationwide the party vote margin was 11%, so 19% is a huge amount.
Harry Duynhoven had 13% of National voters, voting for him as the candidate. Will Andrew Little attract 13% of National voters?
It is a difficult decision for Andrew. His four main options are:
- Stand for Rongotai, with Annette King going list only, allowing Annette to retire easily if Labour lose in 2011.
- Stand for Hutt South if Trevor decides to retire in 2011 to become a full time blogger
- Stand for New Plymouth.
- Stand list only
No 1 is what I would go for if I was Andrew. There are rumours that Darren Hughes may seek that nomination though, and Annette is very good mates with Darren and would probably support him. It is also possible Annette will want to keep her seat, as many would see her going lost only as an indication she is not confident they will win the election.
No 2 depends on whether and when Trevor makes a judgement call that Labour are unlikely to win in 2011. He has said he doesn’t want another term of opposition. But I think Trevor still thinks the Government is on the verge of collapsing and is looking pretty comfortable where he is.
No 3 is Andrew’s for the taking. But the big negative is that he may lose, and lose big – which would not help him with his leadership aspirations.
No 4 is the default fall back option. As President, he would receive a massively high rating. But no one has yet become Prime Minister without not just a seat, but in fact a safe seat,
Related posts:
- Little for New Plymouth
- Will Little stay in New Plymouth?
- Campaigning in Wellington for New Plymouth
- Little for President then Parliament
March 15th, 2010 at 10:37 am
Arguably being ready for prime minister automatically makes your seat safe. Seats that, by rights, should otherwise be marginal generally become safe when a very senior member of that party is holding them. So there is question which is the cause, and which is the effect.
Vote:March 15th, 2010 at 10:40 am
Headline says it all really, “Little for New Plymouth”
Vote:March 15th, 2010 at 10:55 am
I think he will go for one of the Wellington seats and that fits in well with his leadership aspirations. New Plymouth does not fit well, it is not a natural Labour seat despite what the Labour Party think. Charles Chauvel who is performing quite well in Opposition and will stand for Peter Dunne’s seat and then possibly Winnie Labour’s seat in 2014 which given his background will suit him well. That leaves Mallard – he will stay on and on – Mallard really has nothing else to do.
Vote:March 15th, 2010 at 10:59 am
I like option 2.
Vote:Nasty Mallard out has to be a good thing any way you look at it.
However, I can’t blogging a future for him, he gets so many things wrong, including not being able to do Maths.
Perhaps he could become Labours finance person, their last one couldn’t add to well either.
NAHHH, I pick out.
March 15th, 2010 at 11:24 am
I think Andrew would better advised to place himself at No 3 on the list, and be assured of entering Parliament that way. The New Plymouth Independent Rusty Kane came in third with 756 votes in the 2008 election. Kane’s direct campaign against Harry combined with the swing to National the majority of Rusty Kane’s votes came of Harry’s Labour vote. Rusty Kane’s New Plymouth Independent Seat made the difference to Labours Harry Duynhoven losing and Nationals Jonathan Young winning the New Plymouth seat. The margin being only around 100 votes. The New Plymouth Independent Seat may have only come third in the vote count for New Plymouth, but each and every vote for Rusty Kane Independent and the New Plymouth Independent Seat was very effective in deciding the outcome in New Plymouth. It made the difference that kept Labours popular Harry Duynhoven out and Nationals last minute candidate Jonathan Young in. Kane who is well known and growing in popularity in the New Plymouth electorate has said he will run again in the 2011 election as a Independent just to keep Labour out of the marginal seat.
Vote:March 15th, 2010 at 11:25 am
“Little for New Plymouth?”
Yes, that stood out.
“Less for New Zealand?” would be unfair at this stage.
Vote:“Little would lift Labour?” is worth considering.
“Little Labour good for New Zealand?” If he gets in in 2011 would Labour with Little be ready by 2014? That’s tight.
March 15th, 2010 at 12:08 pm
Trevor Mallard to become a full time blogger?
That would make him….. drumroll please……
DUCKOIL!
Vote:March 15th, 2010 at 12:12 pm
I think if Little’s going to enter the Parliament scene despite being the President of His Party he should take over from Annette King in Rongotai – shes had a good run as a electorate MP in a pretty safe Labourite Seat and resultantly he shouldn’t have too mmuch trouble taking it back unless Hon. Finlayson does manage to re-connect with the Upper Middle Class of Seatoun, Haitaitai and The Chatam Islanders.Anettes Finished, shes a one term Deputy who served for a long time on the Labour Front Benches but her Time is definately up now- Ideally she , like Goff should have jumped the Labour Ship when Clarky and Cullen Left.
Vote:March 15th, 2010 at 12:31 pm
“It’s certainly no secret I want to get into Parliament next year,” he told the Taranaki Daily News yesterday.
“As to how I do that, or where, I’ve made no decisions but through the back door that the staffers open to get the wine out seems like the best option”
Vote:March 15th, 2010 at 12:31 pm
Bad George bad!
Vote:March 15th, 2010 at 12:32 pm
Little, hope for Labour.
Punctuation is very important.
Vote:March 15th, 2010 at 12:38 pm
Lot of people on the dole in New Plymouth isn’t there? Should be a shoe in for Mr. Little, who once elected, will no doubt do his best to enlarge upon that voter base.
Vote:March 15th, 2010 at 1:02 pm
Lot of people on the dole in New Plymouth isn’t there? No! that would be Wellington now National is about to keep its election promise of sreamlining bureaucracy and government SOEs.
“Hope for Labour Little”.
Vote:March 15th, 2010 at 1:45 pm
“Lot of people on the dole in New Plymouth isn’t there? No! that would be Wellington now National is about to keep its election promise of sreamlining bureaucracy and government SOEs.”
Good, bout damn time.
Next we trim the politicians themselves. We don’t need at least two thrids of them.
Vote:March 15th, 2010 at 1:49 pm
Is Little still wearing two hats? Maybe he just wants to move the Head Office of the EPMU to New Plymouth, and the media (or Little himself) got confused. I mean, it must be tough having to work out each morning who your boss is for the day …
Vote:March 15th, 2010 at 1:52 pm
Poor analysis. Very Wellington and lower Nth Island centric. Were are the votes. Where must a big Party win.
I doubt a future PM will come from outside Auckland. Its already the most important area politically – and its only growing.
Jacinta Adern should have stayed in New Plymouth where she comes from and Little should have run for Auckland Central.
Maybe a future PM might come from Wellington – I doubt it. I strongly doubt a Labour leader can come from other than Auckland if Labour want to win in Auckland.
[DPF: Jacinda is from the Waikato, not New Plymouth.]
Vote:March 15th, 2010 at 1:52 pm
Hes a permenant double dipper.
Both trotters in the tough, a true labour man.
Vote:March 15th, 2010 at 5:57 pm
ahhh Andrew 2jobs Little is starting his move .. who is worried the most .. Goff, Silent T, The bloke who took over from Clark or Jonesy?
Vote:The bit I liked was .. “As to how I do that, or where, I’ve made no decisions.”
Sounds like he can do what he likes and no-one will stop him.
If he does the list thing, then he will have plenty of time to be Andrew 3jobs.
March 16th, 2010 at 1:53 am
[DPF: Jacinda is from the Waikato, not New Plymouth.]
Claims to have started out politically helping in Harry’s Electorate office.
Vote:March 16th, 2010 at 8:17 am
Wouldn’t mind some sign of Andrew Getajob jaba.
Vote: