Labour’s List

April 10th, 2011 at 4:50 pm by David Farrar

Labour have released their 2011 party list. I’ve blogged it below, with two extra columns. The second column shows whether they are likely to win their electorate seat or not, and hence where they are on what one calls the effective list. For now the assumption is no electorate seats change hands (except Wigram goes to Labour).

The third column is what approximate level of party vote is needed for Labour for that list candidate to get elected to Parliament. This assumes that there is 5% wasted vote.

Rank and Name Effective Rank Party Vote Needed
1. Phil Goff Mt Roskill
2. Annette King Rongotai
3. David Cunliffe New Lynn
4. David Parker 1 18%
5. Ruth Dyson Port Hills
6. Parekura Horomia Ikaroa-Rawhiti
7. Maryan Street 2 19%
8. Clayton Cosgrove Waimakariri
9. Trevor Mallard Hutt South
10. Sue Moroney 3 20%
11. Charles Chauvel 4 21%
12. Nanaia Mahuta Hauraki-Waikato
13. Jacinda Ardern 5 21%
14. Grant Robertson Wellington Central
15. Andrew Little 6 22%
16. Shane Jones 7 23%
17. Su’a William Sio Mangere
18. Darien Fenton 8 24%
19. Moana Mackey 9 25%
20. Rajen Prasad 10 25%
21. Raymond Huo 11 26%
22. Carol Beaumont 12 27%
23. Kelvin Davis 13 28%
24. Carmel Sepuloni 14 29%
25. Rick Barker 15 29%
26. Deborah Mahuta-Coyle 16 30%
27. Stuart Nash 17 31%
28. Clare Curran Dunedin South
29. Brendon Burns Chch Central
30. Chris Hipkins Rimutaka
31. David Shearer Mt Albert
32. Michael Wood 18 32%
33. Phil Twyford Te Atatu
34. Stephanie (Steve) Chadwick 19 33%
35. Kate Sutton 20 33%
36. Jerome Mika 21 34%
37. Iain Lees-Galloway Palm North
38. Josie Pagani 22 35%
39. Lynette Stewart 23 36%
40. Jordan Carter 24 37%
41. Kris Faafoi Mana
42. Christine Rose 25 37%
43. Glenda Alexander 26 38%
44. Susan Zhu 27 39%
45. Rino Tirikatene 28 40%
46. Sehai Orgad 29 40%
47. Megan Woods Wigram
48. Mea’ole Keil 30 41%
49. David Clark Dunedin North
50. Richard Hills 31 42%
51. Anahila Suisuiki 32 43%
52. Hamish McDouall 33 44%
53. Louis Te Kani 34 44%
54. Tat Loo 35 45%
55. Soraya Peke-Mason 36 46%
56. Julian Blanchard 37 47%
57. Peter Foster 38 48%
58. Pat Newman 39 48%
59. Julia Haydon-Carr 40 49%
60. Michael Bott 41 50%
61. Vivienne Goldsmith 42 51%
62. Nick Bakulich 43 52%
63. Chris Yoo 44 52%
64. Barry Monks 45 53%
65. Hugh Kininmonth 46 54%
66. Jo Kim 47 55%
67. Paula Gillon 48 56%
68. Carol Devoy-Heena 49 56%
69. Ben Clark 50 57%
70. Chao-Fu Wu 51 58%

Some general comments I would make:

  1. Sue Moroney has done very well to be the effective No 3 on the list
  2. Jacinda Ardern’s very high placing suggests Labour are not relying on the outcome of Auckland Central to ensure her return
  3. The bottom ranked list MP is junior whip Steve Chadwick.
  4. Only three new candidates are ranked above Caucus List MPs – Andrew Little at 15, Deborah Mahuta-Coyle at 26 and Michael Wood at 32 – two unionists and a parliamentary staffer.
  5. The latest poll (Roy Morgan) has Labour at 31.5%. If this was the result and the assumptions are correct, then Steve Chadwick would lose her seat, and the only new MPs would be Andrew Little and Deborah Mahuta-Coyle
  6. Ashraf Choudary is not on the list, so is dog tucker. Damien O’Connor also not on the list, but he is standing in a marginal seat, so may return.
  7. Overall Labour have not been as bold as they were in 2008 when they injected many new candidates in ahead of current MPs.  Those ranked from spots 18 to 25 are all current MPs, and they could have put candidates like Kate Sutton, Jordan Carter and Josie Pagani higher into a more winnable spot - all three would do miles better than Rajen Prasad.
  8. It will be interesting to see what National does, and whether they place any new candidates above current caucus members. I hope they do – places should be on merit, not status quo.
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66 Responses to “Labour’s List”

  1. Grant Michael McKenna (1,129) Says:

    Interesting that Ms Wall is not on the list; I know that Manurewa is a safe Labour seat, but I would have thought that she’d be on the list anyway.

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  2. Andrew (58) Says:

    DPF This is great – can you confirm you are allowing for Lianne Dalziel, HMNZS Ross Robertson and Louisa Wall to also hold their electorates for Labour?

    [DPF: It assumes Labour wins 22 electorate seats - their curent 21 plus Wigram]

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  3. metcalph (1,051) Says:

    I think we should consider the possibility that Goff and King will fall on their swords after the election result and that we will have two by-elections as a result.

    I’m personally hoping that Goff does a Skoda-and-Crimplene-suit style rant against Carter, Hughes and others while he concedes.

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  4. TripeWryter (715) Says:

    What has Ruth Dyson done to earn 5? She was like a motor gun boat trying to score telling hits on HM Battleship Tony Ryall. The Dyson pompoms were just bouncing off.

    How has Parekura got 6 and Maryan Street 7? And the Tainui princess Nanaia 13?

    Su’a William Sio … I’ve watched him in the House during PQT. He was tying Georgina te Heu Heu in some knots a few months back over the grant for some so-called Pacific agency.

    I think it’s really time for some in the media to let go of defining Shane Jones as for his porn-watching. It’s a bit judgmental and we’re a bit past that. He fronted up, and that’s it.

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  5. burt (5,962) Says:

    I’m actually surprised Labour didn’t run their list all the way to 120 so that they would have more people to choose from when somebody resigns.

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  6. Nick C (340) Says:

    A list which rewards mediocrity (with the notable exception of turfing out Choudary) and punishes effort/not being affilitated with the unionist femenist faction of the labour party.

    The key isnt to look at the top 15 places – those were pretty much a given – but to look at 20-40 and see who gets where. The fact that Carmel Sepuloni, Carol Beaumont, Darien Fenton and Su’a William Sio all managed to beat Stuart Nash and David Shearer; who have actually shown evidence of lucid thought over the last 2 years is very worrying in the sense that Labour will almost certainly get back into power at some point and one would hope that at least a few people with brains would be around the cabinet table.

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  7. Steve (3,691) Says:

    Who are all those people? Some I have never herd (!) of. I pay tax to give some of these people the lifestyle they choose?

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  8. SHG (240) Says:

    Fa’afoi won’t hold Mana.

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  9. reid (13,653) Says:

    Fa’afoi won’t hold Mana.

    Not even if Phil campaigns hard in there, SHG?

    I wonder what would happen then?

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  10. davidp (2,784) Says:

    I hadn’t heard of Nanaia Mahuta and wondered how a newcomer warranted a placing at 12 on the list. It turns out she is a huge woman who has been in parliament for 15 years, but was so mediocre it took 10 years to gain a cabinet place with a few minor portfolios. Does she have any achievements to show for that time? Why would Labour take someone who really should be retiring after 15 years of failure and give them such a high ranking?

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  11. metcalph (1,051) Says:

    Nania Mahuta has done sterling work in creating closer families.

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  12. Anthony (629) Says:

    Hey David doesn’t look as if your mate Jordan Carter will get in. I’d say if Labour can’t get enough votes to get him in then it will be a pretty poor result for them.

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  13. Doug (400) Says:

    Looks like Trevor apologising for the state of the List, sounds as though he has given up winning the Election.

    From Red Alert
    I know that from time to time supporters can be frustrated or disappointed by things that are done or not done but to me supporting Labour is about the values and the ideas. Those things are bigger than any one person’s ambition or position. They are beyond the modern media driven politics of scandal and celebrity. They are beyond any poll or focus group. They are about what kind of country you want to live in, and you want your kids and grandkids to grow up in.
    Forget the side-shows, forget the beat-ups. Remember the values, retain the hope.

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  14. Manolo (10,202) Says:

    The Titanic’s list of passengers looks more appealing than this motley array of no-hopers and professional troughers.

    I do hope the socialists are soundly defeated in the November election.

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  15. reid (13,653) Says:

    “Retain the hope”

    Maybe that’s Blue State’s suggested theme this year.

    Let’s hope so.

    Perfect Tui billboard slogan.

    I wonder if when he was typing that, Trev accidentally carried on with “.. even when all seems lost..) but then deleted it before he posted.

    I wouldn’t be surprised. Poor bastards. Isn’t it sad for them now, what they’re going through?

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  16. Doug (400) Says:

    Sorry Trevor it was Grant Robertson.

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  17. Psycho Milt (1,369) Says:

    Looks like Trevor apologising for the state of the List…

    You mean the list places might be strongly contested and the end results reflective of unpleasant compromises? No! Surely that’s just not possible!

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  18. davidp (2,784) Says:

    According to Robertson at Red Alert: “A number of journalists have commented after recent Labour Party conferences that the attendees “look like” New Zealand, and that is what we try to do with the list.” So NZ looks like a group of union officials and parliamentary staffers with probably ten times the number of gay people than in the general population? It probably does when you fall in two two of those categories simultaneously.

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  19. reid (13,653) Says:

    You mean the list places might be strongly contested and the end results reflective of unpleasant compromises?

    PM are you referring specifically to the NY tentacles or just talking more generally?

    …probably ten times the number of gay people…

    Liarbore is pretty gay at the mo, isn’t it, david.

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  20. Muzza M (272) Says:

    Can somebody tell me why Maryan Street is so high on the list.

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  21. nickb (2,204) Says:

    ugh, sehai orgad and sue moron, the toxic commie twins from the tron

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  22. reid (13,653) Says:

    Can somebody tell me why Maryan Street is so high on the list.

    She’s currently suspended by NY-based tentacles, Muzza. And she will continue so to be, now that Chris had to leave. At least until Chris gets back in after Phil goes.

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  23. Minnie (91) Says:

    It looks like a slap in the face for Phil Goff. Dyson and Horomia back where they started before their demotion, and lots of unionists to provide support in caucus for Little after the election.

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  24. bhudson (3,665) Says:

    “A number of journalists have commented after recent Labour Party conferences that the attendees “look like” New Zealand…”

    Could someone with journalist/media background help out here? Is this media speak for “teat-sucking parasites who thrive on spending Other Peoples’ Money”?

    Or, then again, are they, like Paul Henry, trying to determine what it is to look like a New Zealander?

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  25. Fisiani (670) Says:

    If Labour suffer a humiliation in the lower NI electorate seats in 2011 losing Rongotai, Rimutaka, Wellington Central, Palmerston North and party vote stays the same then these 4 losers would still be in Parliament. The only option is to raise the Party Vote for National and get rid of MM bloody P

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  26. Psycho Milt (1,369) Says:

    PM are you referring specifically to the NY tentacles or just talking more generally?

    Can you name the parties that don’t have internal competition re their list placings, reid? Genuine question – I’d like to establish the true extent of your naivety.

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  27. publicwatchdog (1,399) Says:

    Poll: Goff With Highest Ever Peferred PM Rating
    Sunday, 10 April 2011, 6:10 pm
    Have you folk seen this?

    http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO1104/S00136/poll-goff-with-highest-ever-peferred-pm-rating.htm

    Press Release: TVNZ

    One News Colmar Brunton Has Goff With Highest Ever Peferred PM Rating
    First poll since Darren Hughes incident

    Sunday 10th April, 2011

    The first official poll to survey voters since news broke of the police investigation into Darren Hughes shows Labour and its leader have escaped unscathed from the controversy, with Phil Goff’s preferred Prime Minister rating up 4 points to 11% – his highest ever rating as leader.
    ………………………….”

    Oh bugger – the attempt to undermine Phil Goff’s leadership may have actually helped him?

    Oh bugger – that definitely WASN’T the plan…….

    :)

    See folks – proves again – a week is indeed a long time in politics.

    ‘One minute you’re the rooster – the next minute you’re the feather duster’ , and vice versa……?

    Penny Bright
    http://waterpressure.wordpress.com

    (Myself – I’m more interested in election results – but seeing as so many of you folk find ‘opinion polls’ so fascinating – thought you’d like to see this part of this particular opinion poll?

    or not – whatever…………… :)

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  28. bhudson (3,665) Says:

    Fisiani,

    Wouldn’t it be good for National if those 4 did remain in Parliament??? One big tick for MMP.

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  29. Rodders (1,790) Says:

    Penny – National at 54%, NZ First at 2.7%. Are you pleased about that, too?

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  30. publicwatchdog (1,399) Says:

    # Rodders (702) Says:
    April 10th, 2011 at 7:37 pm

    Penny – National at 54%, NZ First at 2.7%. Are you going to claim credit for that, too?”

    errrr……….. where am I claiming credit for anything Rodders?

    Just giving my considered opinion – with which you have every right to agree – or not……………. :)

    I knew that post would get the little goldfish burping / (farting?) – and SO quickly!

    Good on you Rodders!

    Always like it when my predictions are proved to be correct.

    :)

    Penny Bright
    http://waterpressure.wordpress.com

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  31. Matt (186) Says:

    So I guess they’re not looking to win 2014 either

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  32. Put it away (2,887) Says:

    Penny’s writing style is beginning to morph into phool’s. That can’t be a good thing.

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  33. Rodders (1,790) Says:

    Yesterday, Penny was predicting a surge in support for NZ First

    http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2011/04/wall_on_goff.html#comment-817695

    Oops !

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  34. davidp (2,784) Says:

    A Man Woman>One News Colmar Brunton Has Goff With Highest Ever Peferred PM Rating

    Probably National Party supporters telling the pollsters porkies to ensure that Goff is still around in November.

    Goff actually deserves a medal, in my opinion. He was one of Douglas and Prebble’s main lieutenants in the 1984-1990 Labour Government that restructured, privatised, and saved NZ’s economy. He should be thanked for that. The problem is the 21 years following that where he supported the nine wasted years of the Clark Government and been a hopeless leader of a bizarre group of unionistas, cradle to grave politicians, and activist rainbow people. If he’d retired in 1990 or joined ACT then he’d be remembered as one of the giants of NZ politics rather than as a man who dyes his hair and makes a mess of a sexual assault crisis in his ranks.

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  35. Grant Michael McKenna (1,129) Says:

    Goff’s highest ever “preferred PM” rating is 11%, and that is the good news? Oarsome…

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  36. side show bob (3,660) Says:

    Unemployment does indeed have a devastating effect on society, God what poor disparate creatures.

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  37. Rex Widerstrom (4,971) Says:

    So Labour are clear that they value Parekura Horomia, Maryan Street, Su’a William Sio, Raymond Huo et al considerably more highly than they do Kelvin Davis, David Shearer, Phil Twyford, Josie Pagani and Jordan Carter (he may not be the favourite person of many here, but there’s no denying his output).

    So it’s certainly not energy that gets you to the top of ther list. Or hard work. Or even intelligence.

    So just what is it that makes those people more valuable to the party, and to NZ, than the others?

    Might I suggest connections (to NY and elsewhere), ethnicity and compliance. And that that’s no way to run a tuck shop let alone a country.

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  38. Pete George (17,881) Says:

    47. Megan Woods Wigram
    49. David Clark Dunedin North

    I know they are new candidates, but they have excellent chances of getting electorate seats. They don’t seem to be considered good enough to feature anywhere but way down the list. Odd.

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  39. Fisiani (670) Says:

    Why is National support only 54%? On this trend (4%rise) by November it will be much higher. Those who believed the Labour lies about John Key being untrustworthy will not be conned again surely. Could National support hit 60%?

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  40. reid (13,653) Says:

    Crikey Penny. What a liar.

    Rodders 7:37 said:

    Penny – National at 54%, NZ First at 2.7%. Are you pleased about that, too?

    Then in your 7:44 response, you deliberately changed his quoted remark:

    Penny – National at 54%, NZ First at 2.7%. Are you going to claim credit for that, too?”

    Then you proceeded to berate him for accusing you of claiming credit.

    You little liar.

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  41. Rodders (1,790) Says:

    @reid, I should comment that Penny didn’t misquote me as I originally had “going to claim credit” and then (about a minute later) decided to tone it down to “pleased about that”. Serves me right :(

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  42. reid (13,653) Says:

    Thanks Rodders, sorry Penny. I withdraw and apologise.

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  43. Brabus (30) Says:

    Apart from political junkies nobody actually chooses who they vote for from the list. You can rumble on all you like but the list has very little bearing on the average voter. The average voter being someone who watches the 6:00pm news and has a bias towards what party their family has traditionally voted for.

    The potential issues pertaining with the labour list have more to do with the media’s portrayal of said list than the in-depth analysis from the average punter.

    Still hopefully the media gives out a full and unbiased analysis so that the average punter can make a fully informed decision come November – not that I am holding my breath.

    [Disclaimer] I am a national supporter and previous office holder

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  44. Rich Prick (1,114) Says:

    Awww, they left out Judith, what a shame.

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  45. JeffW (226) Says:

    More Unionists, just what we need to save the country!

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  46. Rich Prick (1,114) Says:

    And we do have bonkers Penny too Jeff. Nothing like the mental comming out in force.

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  47. publicwatchdog (1,399) Says:

    # Rich Prick (749) Says:
    April 10th, 2011 at 11:55 pm

    And we do have bonkers Penny too Jeff. Nothing like the mental comming out in force.”

    A bit more ‘projection’ coming from Cameron Slater/’Rich Prick’?

    Rather sad really for someone who has made such a big deal out of his (bogus) support for ‘freedom of expression’?

    Penny Bright
    http://waterpressure.wordpress.com

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  48. publicwatchdog (1,399) Says:

    # reid (6,741) Says:
    April 10th, 2011 at 9:33 pm

    Thanks Rodders, sorry Penny. I withdraw and apologise.”

    Apology accepted.

    An understandable mistake.

    You will learn from experience that it is not my style to ‘make things up’.

    Penny Bright
    http://waterpressure.wordpress.com

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  49. smttc (428) Says:

    I see barrister Michael Bott’s placing on the list finally outs him as the Labour loving toad that he is. There he has been throughout this term of government berating John Key and National in the media over various issues all dressed up as concern for his scummy clients and it turns out he is party political. I always thought his modus operandi was a bit strange for a lawyer. Lawyers normally keep their political prejudices to themselves when advocating for clients. Anyway no chance of getting into parliament on that place on the list.

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  50. Doug (400) Says:

    In fighting already, that didn’t take long.

    MP slams unionists, gays on list panel.

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10718489

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  51. BlairM (2,048) Says:

    Nania Mahuta has done sterling work in creating closer families

    She has also done sterling work in eating all the pies :-P

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  52. Viking2 (9,608) Says:

    You can add Jodi Ihaka of marae fame to that pie list as well.

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  53. 3-coil (1,149) Says:

    Viking2 – true, Nania and Jodi both look like they would scrap all the way to the last pie in the shop…but Nania will always be the meanest banjo player.

    [DPF: Enough of the personal nastiness]

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  54. Rich Prick (1,114) Says:

    “41. Kris Faafoi”

    Ouch! Clearly he is not union nor gay enough.

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  55. publicwatchdog (1,399) Says:

    # smttc (46) Says:
    April 11th, 2011 at 3:26 am

    I see barrister Michael Bott’s placing on the list finally outs him as the Labour loving toad that he is. There he has been throughout this term of government berating John Key and National in the media over various issues all dressed up as concern for his scummy clients and it turns out he is party political. I always thought his modus operandi was a bit strange for a lawyer. Lawyers normally keep their political prejudices to themselves when advocating for clients. Anyway no chance of getting into parliament on that place on the list.”

    What if Michael Bott wins Wairarapa?
    Think you may find he has an excellent chance of so doing?

    He has represented me on a significant matter – and won.

    In my considered opinion, Michael Bott is an excellent lawyer and a good man, and plays a significant role in defending civil liberties of New Zealanders.

    I wish him all the very best.

    In my view – NZ could do with a LOT more Michael Botts,

    But I’m a ‘Public Watchdog’ sort of person, helping to defend the public and the public interest.

    What would I know?

    ;)

    Penny Bright
    http://waterpressure .wordpress.com

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  56. Pete George (17,881) Says:

    Dunedin is regarded as Labour territory with an easy stroll expected in the electorates. But it doesn’t seem to be an area Labour puts much importance on, or attracts top candidates to.

    4. David Parker – Otago seat MP 2002-2005, failed Waitaki electorate, list since
    29. Clare Curran, sitting MP, Dunedin South (not a great endorsement for her first term efforts)
    43. Glenda Alexander – remarkably missed Dunedin North candidacy but ranks higher than Clark
    45. Rino Tirikatene, candidate and rated a chance for Te Tai Tonga
    49. David Clark, candidate and almost assured of replacing Hodgson in Dunedin North
    54. Tat Loo, candidate for Clutha-Southland

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  57. Shazzadude (366) Says:

    “I know they are new candidates, but they have excellent chances of getting electorate seats. They don’t seem to be considered good enough to feature anywhere but way down the list. Odd.”

    I think it makes sense for newbies or non-front benchers with stronghold electorates to be ranked down the list-if you stuff up a safe seat, you don’t deserve to be in parliament.

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  58. Rich Prick (1,114) Says:

    I think we can safely assume then, that after November, the next Labour list MP to leave a DNA sample on a swiss ball will be replaced by Chao-Fu Wu.

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  59. Inventory2 (8,891) Says:

    Red Penny supports a bleeding heart lawyer; quelle surprise!

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  60. s.russell (1,335) Says:

    Maybe this is wishful thinking on my part, but I think it is seriously unlikely that Labour will match its ’08 performance of 34%. I can’t remember a single poll since then where it has scored higher than this, and it has almost always been lower.

    Most election campaigns boost the showing of minor parties at the majors’ expense, and there is a real danger for Labour that it will suffer as National did under Bill English in 2002 – with voters on the left streaming away to alternatives that show a bit more fizz (including, alas, Winston Peters) or just not bothering to vote.

    Andrew Little (List #15), Megan Woods (Wigram) and David Clark (Dunedin N) may be the only fresh blood they get – and they may lose a few sitting MPs as well.

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  61. Pete George (17,881) Says:

    Andrew Little, Megan Woods (Wigram) and David Clark (Dunedin N) may be the only fresh blood they get

    Labour rank Megan Wood at 47. David Clark at 49.

    Does that say something about the importance Labour puts on fresh blood? Apparently Labour have 36 members on their list “moderation committee”. As Chris Trotter suggested on NatRad this morning they seem to have become totaly inward looking – and I’ll add self obsessed and arrogant.

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  62. KevinH (974) Says:

    With ten out of your top twenty being list candidates then clearly Labour is hinging it’s future on both MMP and the list to survive. Extra ordinarily this places Labour alongside the Greens in terms of representation in that increasingly Labour will have to rely upon percentages to gain traction as oppossed to winning electorate seats.
    The latest poll results may be encouraging for Labour list nominees, but for electorate MP’s this election will be tough.

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  63. Mark (1,134) Says:

    Andrew little may well be too low on the list if labour keep sliding in the polls. 22% of the vote to get him in. keep your fingers crossed folks

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  64. Shazzadude (366) Says:

    “but I think it is seriously unlikely that Labour will match its ’08 performance of 34%.”

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_New_Zealand_general_election,_2011

    They’ve polled between 29% and 37% over the last year. 33% would be about the average.

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  65. Poliwatch (332) Says:

    There are just some things that everyone agrees with

    http://tumeke.blogspot.com/2011/04/labour-list.html

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  66. Mike Readman (335) Says:

    Why are some Labour MPs, standing again as electorate candidates, not on the list?

    [DPF: Generally because they didn't think they would get a good rating or that they don't want to be a List MP or that they think not being on the list will increase the chances people vote for them]

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