Labour’s List

have released their 2011 party list. I’ve blogged it below, with two extra columns. The second column shows whether they are likely to win their electorate seat or not, and hence where they are on what one calls the effective list. For now the assumption is no electorate seats change hands (except Wigram goes to Labour).

The third column is what approximate level of party vote is needed for Labour for that list candidate to get elected to Parliament. This assumes that there is 5% wasted vote.

Rank and Name Effective Rank Party Vote Needed
1. Phil Goff Mt Roskill
2. Annette King Rongotai
3. David Cunliffe New Lynn
4. David Parker 1 18%
5. Ruth Dyson Port Hills
6. Parekura Horomia Ikaroa-Rawhiti
7. Maryan Street 2 19%
8. Clayton Cosgrove Waimakariri
9. Trevor Mallard Hutt South
10. Sue Moroney 3 20%
11. Charles Chauvel 4 21%
12. Nanaia Mahuta Hauraki-Waikato
13. Jacinda Ardern 5 21%
14. Grant Robertson Wellington Central
15. Andrew Little 6 22%
16. Shane Jones 7 23%
17. Su’a William Sio Mangere
18. Darien Fenton 8 24%
19. Moana Mackey 9 25%
20. Rajen Prasad 10 25%
21. Raymond Huo 11 26%
22. Carol Beaumont 12 27%
23. Kelvin Davis 13 28%
24. Carmel Sepuloni 14 29%
25. Rick Barker 15 29%
26. Deborah Mahuta-Coyle 16 30%
27. Stuart Nash 17 31%
28. Clare Curran Dunedin South
29. Brendon Burns Chch Central
30. Chris Hipkins Rimutaka
31. David Shearer Mt Albert
32. Michael Wood 18 32%
33. Phil Twyford Te Atatu
34. Stephanie (Steve) Chadwick 19 33%
35. Kate Sutton 20 33%
36. Jerome Mika 21 34%
37. Iain Lees-Galloway Palm North
38. Josie Pagani 22 35%
39. Lynette Stewart 23 36%
40. Jordan Carter 24 37%
41. Kris Faafoi Mana
42. Christine Rose 25 37%
43. Glenda Alexander 26 38%
44. Susan Zhu 27 39%
45. Rino Tirikatene 28 40%
46. Sehai Orgad 29 40%
47. Megan Woods Wigram
48. Mea’ole Keil 30 41%
49. David Clark Dunedin North
50. Richard Hills 31 42%
51. Anahila Suisuiki 32 43%
52. Hamish McDouall 33 44%
53. Louis Te Kani 34 44%
54. Tat Loo 35 45%
55. Soraya Peke-Mason 36 46%
56. Julian Blanchard 37 47%
57. Peter Foster 38 48%
58. Pat Newman 39 48%
59. Julia Haydon-Carr 40 49%
60. Michael Bott 41 50%
61. Vivienne Goldsmith 42 51%
62. Nick Bakulich 43 52%
63. Chris Yoo 44 52%
64. Barry Monks 45 53%
65. Hugh Kininmonth 46 54%
66. Jo Kim 47 55%
67. Paula Gillon 48 56%
68. Carol Devoy-Heena 49 56%
69. Ben Clark 50 57%
70. Chao-Fu Wu 51 58%

Some general comments I would make:

  1. Sue Moroney has done very well to be the effective No 3 on the list
  2. Jacinda Ardern’s very high placing suggests Labour are not relying on the outcome of Auckland Central to ensure her return
  3. The bottom ranked list MP is junior whip Steve Chadwick.
  4. Only three new candidates are ranked above Caucus List MPs – Andrew Little at 15, Deborah Mahuta-Coyle at 26 and Michael Wood at 32 – two unionists and a parliamentary staffer.
  5. The latest poll (Roy Morgan) has Labour at 31.5%. If this was the result and the assumptions are correct, then Steve Chadwick would lose her seat, and the only new MPs would be Andrew Little and Deborah Mahuta-Coyle
  6. Ashraf Choudary is not on the list, so is dog tucker. Damien O’Connor also not on the list, but he is standing in a marginal seat, so may return.
  7. Overall Labour have not been as bold as they were in 2008 when they injected many new candidates in ahead of current MPs.  Those ranked from spots 18 to 25 are all current MPs, and they could have put candidates like Kate Sutton, Jordan Carter and Josie Pagani higher into a more winnable spot – all three would do miles better than Rajen Prasad.
  8. It will be interesting to see what National does, and whether they place any new candidates above current caucus members. I hope they do – places should be on merit, not status quo.

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