Is this a final nail?
July 29th, 2011 at 11:03 am by David FarrarWhile I regard the chance of Labour forming Government after the next election as remote, I’ve never dismissed it entirely. In fact I have warned of a possible scenario where National gets 46% and loses to Labour on say 32% if Labour can pull off a deal with principally the Greens and NZ First (if they make it).
However NewstalkZB’s Felix Marwick has just tweeted:
NZF leader Winston Peters won’t be drawn on possible post election deals but says he doesn’t envisage a Lab’, Green, NZF scenario happening
This is potentially a huge blow to Labour, as they desperately need Winston to both make 5% and to back them, to be in with a chance.
Winston has not ruled Labour out per se, but has ruled out Labour, Greens and NZ First. This suggests he may do a repeat of what he did in 2005 (if he is in a position to do so) and veto the Greens from being Ministers.
The Greens would then have to decide between accepting being screwed over again by Labour, forcing a new election, or allowing a National-led Government to govern. None of them pleasant options for them. So I think the Greens will be hoping Winston doesn’t make 5%.
Related posts:
- Final Results of the 2008 Election Media Study
- The final Dispatch from Helengrad?
- A question for the Greens
- Final Results
July 29th, 2011 at 11:07 am
“So I think the Greens will be hoping Winston doesn’t make 5%.”
And I’ll bet Winston is hoping the Greens don’t make 5%.
There’s always some common ground if you look hard enough. I find myself agreeing with both Winston and the Greens. I hope neither of them make 5%
Vote:July 29th, 2011 at 11:19 am
Meh. Whether this is a “huge blow” depends a lot on how much weight you place on a tweet by a journalist speculating about what Peters might or might not do 4 months from now if NZ First succeeds in reaching the threshold at the election.
Knowing Peters he’ll probably turn around and say he has been misrepresented by the media etc…
I wonder if the real issue here isn’t about ensuring the words “Winston Peters” and “Labour” get used in as close proximity as possible as often as possible. If DPF can’t find a bogeyman in labour, he’ll use Winston as a proxy.
Vote:July 29th, 2011 at 11:22 am
Although a lunatic left coalition would be totally disastrous for the country the humor benefit would be priceless, it would make the Ringely brothers efforts pale in comparison. As for Winnie not supporting Liar/Melon coalition, oh pigs arse, he would sale his soul to the devil for the trappings of power. And the bloggers would be in heaven, always scandal, corruption, nepotism, power abuses to write about.
Vote:July 29th, 2011 at 11:22 am
Nick: You really need to get perspective. Winston saying him supporting Labour/Greens is unlikely to happen is significant. Of course you can’t trust him, but it remains significant.
Vote:July 29th, 2011 at 11:26 am
Winston could still end up in a position of significant power. Even if there was only a theoretical combination like Lab/NZF/Greens/Maori, it could be used as a bargaining chip with a National-led government.
Vote:July 29th, 2011 at 11:27 am
Even Winston doesn’t want to be tied to the unpopular Goff.
Vote:July 29th, 2011 at 11:31 am
People are talking about polls growing closer toward the election date, mainly because this happened in 2008. I suspect the 2008 result was actually a swing to the government based on the fear, uncertainty, and doubt spreading about Key that was the center of Labour’s campaign.
This time around, voters DO have something to be scared about, and that is a Labour, Green, Mana, NZ First coalition of the weird. My guess is that we’ll actually see a swing to the government as the election grows closer. People just won’t want to see Harawira, Peters, and Delahunty wagging the Labour dog.
Vote:July 29th, 2011 at 11:37 am
I’m just saying that Winston makes a convenient ugly stick you can use to beat Labour, is all. I wouldn’t want to vote for a Government that included him, and I’m sure many others feel the same. So if you taint Labour with the Winston yuk factor, it’s all good for the blue camp. And that’s the point, right?
Vote:July 29th, 2011 at 11:45 am
Nick, it’s all a part of the game, just like the NAct that’s commonly pushed.
Actually no, not just like that, a story that’s often pushed is that National took over and own Act. Tainting by association is standard Yuk.
Vote:July 29th, 2011 at 11:47 am
Pure posturing. Winston will go with anyone who brings the baubles, this is a negotiating ploy to demand more of them from labour.
Vote:July 29th, 2011 at 11:48 am
I absolutely agree that the probability Labour could only govern if Winston is made a Minister is a turn off to many people. Of course Goff could have ruled him out, as he did with Hone.
But in this case, this is a story suggesting Winston may not back Labour. That is significant.
Out of interest do you go to Red Alert and complain that Labour MPs talk about Don Brash, and how if you vote National you may have Don Brash as a Minister?
Vote:July 29th, 2011 at 11:52 am
Now why doesn’t Winston “do a Brash” on the Labour party? That would let a lot of people off the hook.
Vote:July 29th, 2011 at 12:01 pm
Dyannt
By ‘do a Brash’ do you mean Winston should offer to join the Labour Party if they make him leader?
Vote:July 29th, 2011 at 12:02 pm
For the first time since MMP was introduced, we have the polls suggesting that there is a high chance of a party being able to form a government without coalition/support partners.
This is new. Previously, the debate was all about which cab would be off the rank when. Now it is about a National government, possibly with some junior ministerial positions outside Cabinet given to Peter Dunne and the Maori Party as insurance policies against the need for support after 2014, versus the coalition of the unholy.
John Key can say: two tick National and you get a National government, with Bill English as Finance Minister, and the rest of the current Cabinet (plus or minus). Phil Goff says: two tick Labour and you get me (for as long as I can keep Cunliffe, Parker, Little and the rest of the “future Labour leaders” at bay), plus Winston, Hone, the Greens, Jim (if he decides retirement isn’t attractive), the Maori Party, Dunne and indeed anyone else who manages to get into parliament and has no scruples about forming a government that can’t possible govern.
Vote:July 29th, 2011 at 12:10 pm
John Key can say: two tick National and you get a National government
He can and will say that. Time will tell if the electorate is willing to give exclusive power to one party. It think there’s a better than even chance they will resist that, so I see mid to high 40s is likely for National.
Vote:July 29th, 2011 at 12:19 pm
There has been a common presumption that if NZF had the balance of power Winston would back Labour, because he has been spurned by Key. I think people have not thought it through.
While I believe Winston wants baubles – which Labour would offer by the truckload and National would not – what he wants even more is to humiliate his enemies. (That is why he went with National in 1996, because he then got to humiliate them on a daily basis).
Winston also knows that if he backed Labour and booted out one of the most popular PMs and Governments we have ever had, which would have won a huge plurality of the vote, (eg 47%) the backlash against him would be huge.
So I think his most likely course (if he held the balance of power) would be to abstain on confidence and thus let National stay in office as a minority Govt, and force National to dance to his tune for Parliamentary votes on a day-to-day basis.
He would thus avoid the stick for ousting Key but get to play merry hell with him for three years as he allowed some legislation and rejected others.
Vote:July 29th, 2011 at 12:19 pm
mikenmild:
By ‘do a Brash’ do you mean Winston should offer to join the Labour Party if they make him leader?
Sorry Mike, I thought the reference would be obvious.
Vote:July 29th, 2011 at 12:34 pm
S.Russell
Vote:From my readings Winston (eventually) went with National because he felt Labour were taking too many liberties in their negotiations. His gigantic ego could not permit Labour to behave as though they were the party of choice (a reasonable assumption given he had campaigned on removing National from power) so he chose to punish Labour’s hubris by going with National.
July 29th, 2011 at 12:35 pm
Divide and conquer
Vote:July 29th, 2011 at 12:41 pm
Winston will do whatever is good for him, which is a cabinet posting, a flash title like Treasurer, and a company car to whisk him around all the free lunches he expects. Winston’s motto is : “Winston First”, he who dares wins it all.
Vote:Let’s hope that this time round he has done his homework and won’t drag it out like he did in ’96, and besides Winston will work with anyone, just remember to pay the ferryman.
July 29th, 2011 at 1:09 pm
Winston has spoken… He’s holding a big “NO” sign… So he will definately sell out for baubles then….
DPF
Why do you even give this proven liar any mention on your blog? He’s proven again and again that the way to predict what he is up to is to look at what he accuses others of.
Vote:July 29th, 2011 at 1:13 pm
adze
I think the only thing Winston knows how to punish is his own credibility. Remember his constant call of “big business backers”, “use of secret trusts”, “policies for cash”.
Yes that’s right, the same Winston who didn’t declare his donations (via a secret trust) from the horse racing big business players while giving a tax cut to the racing industry. Yes he sold policies for cash, yes he used secret trusts and yes it was all proven and he still claims it was a beat up.
Vote:July 29th, 2011 at 1:25 pm
KevinH … sage comment but with my tongue only slightly in cheek could I suggest that perhaps the only way for Labour to avoid a complete debacle come election time is for them rope in Peters as their leader. That would produce an immediate jump in poll ratings for Labour from a Party that is hugely forgiving of election rorts and money making schemes that make pyramid selling look like best practise. But seriously, there is a deal of common ground in policy direction between Labour and NZF ….. not to mention family ties. Winston’s sister is standing(carpetbagging) for Labour in Northland.
Vote:July 29th, 2011 at 1:26 pm
Why would I ever believe a word Winston says.
He still owes the taxpayer money from before.
Surely he should pay up before being considered for anything. He is just a media led joke now.
Vote:July 29th, 2011 at 1:28 pm
Paulus
He’s awesome eh. On the subject of stolen money Winston did the following;
Said it wasn’t stolen.
Said he would pay it back.
Voted to retrospectively validate his own actions.
Didn’t pay it back.
Winston – tell me what you want to hear and I’ll say it – Peters.
Vote:July 29th, 2011 at 2:02 pm
“So I think the Greens will be hoping Winston doesn’t make 5%.”
Not just the Greens. I think about 97.5% of the voters don’t want Peters. They seem to have the maths in their favour (oops, ‘WE’).
Very good mikenmild.
Vote:July 29th, 2011 at 2:13 pm
@Ross Miller
How can a Peters be carpet-bagging in Northland. Aren’t they from there?
Vote:July 29th, 2011 at 2:25 pm
Good on Winston, still the peoples man!
sod the watermelons the trojan horses of democracy
Vote:July 29th, 2011 at 3:55 pm
mikenmild … she lives in Whangarei. Whangarei is not Northland.
Vote:July 29th, 2011 at 4:08 pm
Ross
That’s a pretty tough definition of carpetbagger. Last time I checked, Whangarei was somewhere in Northland. Aren’t the Peters allfrom Whananake?
Vote:July 29th, 2011 at 4:51 pm
mikenmild
If winston said he’s from Whananake then he’s from somewhere else. If he accuses other people of being from Whananake like it’s a bad thing – then he’s from Whananake.
See, Winston speak is easy to understand.
Vote:August 3rd, 2011 at 1:34 pm
You folks can talk strategy but I think all winston wants to do is get over that 5 percent threshold. It looks like he will make it.
Vote: