Te Tai Tokerau

October 1st, 2011 at 10:32 am by David Farrar

The Herald reports:

A poll of Maori voters indicates Party leader (below) could face a challenge in his electorate seat.

The full results of the nationwide TVNZ Marae Investigates DigiPoll survey of 1000 voters will be released this morning.

In results released to the Weekend Herald of 93 Te Tai Tokerau voters polled, 30 per cent said they would vote for Labour candidate Kelvin Davis, compared with 28.6 per cent for Mr Harawira.

About 22 per cent said they would vote for Maori Party candidate Waihoroi Shortland.

The first thing to note is 93 voters is very small for a poll. I don’t like samples under 300. At 93 the margin of error is 10.4%, so a gap of 1.4% between the candidates is not statistically significant. In fact it is only 57% probable that Davis is ahead.

Also worth noting that a poll before the by-election showed Hone leading by just 1% and in fact he won by around 8% or so. That poll was from a different company, but is another reason to be cautious of reading too much into this poll.

3 Responses to “Te Tai Tokerau”

  1. Rodders (1,790 comments) says:

    Would be really great if he lost and the Harawaira/Minto/Sykes Party was dead in the water, though.

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  2. Griff (13,845 comments) says:

    The small sample allows way to much error. the

    TVNZ Marae DigiPoll with its larger sample size may give insight into the traction the separatism movement actually has among Maori. I see this issue as a the major issue facing this country over the next decade. We have not heard anything from the Constitutional review. I belive This review is heavily loaded with Maori.
    http://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/govt-begins-cross-party-constitutional-review “Public consultation will guide the review, and information and education campaigns will be part of the review process,” Dr Sharples says.
    “I know Maori want to talk about the place of the Treaty of Waitangi in our constitution, and how our legal and political systems can reflect Tikanga Maori. Proper consideration of these issues cannot be rushed,” he says.

    terms of the review http://www.beehive.govt.nz/sites/all/files/CR_Cab_paper_8.12.10.pdf
    That a small racial faction of our population is given such a large say in our country direction is in no way democratic and is not going to move us forward into the 21st century rather it will push us back towards the 1840s.
    There was supposed to be a report back after six months of this I have not seen any evidence.
    That they do not want this to become an election issue smells to me.

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  3. Griff (13,845 comments) says:

    more released http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/5716079/Maori-voters-support-for-PM-John-Key-strong

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