The US polls

April 15th, 2012 at 9:36 am by David Farrar

The Herald on Sunday has a piece by Jack Tame on the US presidential race. It makes it sound hopeless for Mitt Romney:

He’s a corporate Ned Flanders. Polished, handsome enough, religious and so very wholesome – the kind of guy you wouldn’t take to Vegas.

Many will say it’s what America needs, that in a time of economic insecurity, policy should triumph over personality. The problem for Romney is, that’s not how politics work.

A lot of Americans simply don’t like him. Women, African-Americans, Hispanics, even far-right Republicans and Evangelical Christians say they will struggle to support their party’s own nominee.

The female vote is of particular concern. An ABC poll this week had Romney 19 points behind Obama among female voters. He has been tarred by the controversial birth control policies of the ultra-right and many female voters say Obama has a better understanding of women’s issues.

Romney’s African-American support isn’t much better. Facing America’s first black President he wouldn’t realistically have expected a large percentage of the black vote, but he might have tried. There are no high-ranking African-American staff on his campaign, and he has had few endorsements from high-profile black politicians.

Support among Hispanics, who make up 10 per cent of eligible voters, is now almost as grim. By way of a particularly unscientific and completely unrepresentative poll, I popped into a Spanish Harlem laundromat on the day of Santorum’s withdrawal, and ended up chatting with the Mexican proprietor.

“Amigo!” he said.

“Amigo!” I said.

“So … Mitt Romney or Barack Obama? Who do you want to be president?” I asked.

“With Obama, nothing has become better,” he said, “but I’ll still vote for him.”

Among Latin voters, polls have Obama as much as five times more popular than his counterpart-to-be.

So what do the current polls show?

Pollster has Romney and Obama both tied at 45.2%. Not bad for someone no-one likes. Pollster (which averages all the public polls) finds Romney has 46.7% unfavourability, and Obama has 46.1% unfavourability. So where are the stories on how unpopular Obama is?

Now don’t get me wrong. Obama is the favourite to win at this stage, but this article suggests the gap is huge, and Romney is doing very badly.

Traditionally all republican candidates do worse amongst women. The historical average is around 12%, so the current gap of 19% is greater. And no Republican candidate has ever had significant African-American or even Hispanic support.

Romney leads Obama by 26% amongst white men. That is not enough to win, but helps counter the weaknesses in other areas. Obama and Romney are neck and neck amongst white women, and that is the likely battleground.

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45 Responses to “The US polls”

  1. Other_Andy (2,079 comments) says:

    The Media and the reality, ‘polls’ apart.
    Obama is the favourite. There aren’t many presidents that were thrown out after serving just one term.
    However, Obama has been a devisive president and voters are ‘dug in’.
    Saying that, the economy (going up or down) will move voters from their entrenched positions.

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  2. Redbaiter (6,478 comments) says:

    “Corporate Ned Flanders??”

    FFS.

    Romney’s big handicaps are that he is a Mormon ( sect) and a far left liberal put in place by a corrupt and dysfunctional Republican/ Washington machine.

    He’s not any kind of Ned Flanders.

    Jack Tame- commie fuckwit, no fucking idea unless it is a left wing idea.

    Once again NZer’s get their perceptions through the filter of a biased news media, and forget Jack Tame, this means they never know Jack Shit about anything.

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  3. Nichlemn (63 comments) says:

    This would be like saying National is doomed because a poll of union members showed they strongly favouring Labour.

    Demographic breakdowns may be fun but they’re not very helpful in prognosticating. If you can get ahead in the polls, it doesn’t matter if you’re doing poorly among some groups because you must be doing better among other groups to compensate.

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  4. AG (1,727 comments) says:

    “Now don’t get me wrong. Obama is the favourite to win at this stage, but this article suggests the gap is huge, and Romney is doing very badly.”

    Agreed the article is little more than a lazy collection of stereotypes. However, I think the reasons for thinking Obama may pull it out are:
    (1) The economy is (slowly) starting to improve – meaning Romney’s attack on this point now has to be “but I can fix it even faster”, which is a harder message to sell.
    (2) Obama is the incumbent, and most incumbents get a second chance.
    (3) Obama is leading the polls in the key battleground states (Florida/Virginia/Pennsylvania/Ohio/Colorado) – and as we all know, it isn’t the national vote that matters when winning the Presidency.

    All this may change come November, of course … but I think your inclination is right.

    [DPF: I agree with pretty much all of that. The economy is key, and it if continues to improve hard to see the case for change being made. Obama does also have electoral college maths in his favour.

    A further point is that Romney may face a third party challenge, slitting the right vote]

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  5. tom hunter (4,004 comments) says:

    I can’t wait for the next time the Huruld calls me or has some kid at the door offering daily delivery free for the first month.

    Muhahahahaha.

    Again – for the billionth time – we see why the old media is dying. Is this the best analyst of US politics that they could come up with? What was this guy saying over the past three years as just one example of his analytical powers? What was his analysis of the 2010 mid-terms for example, the one where the GOP was even in women voters.

    For all the mention of the different demographics the focus of this article is the same old horse-racing coverage that the media always love doing. There is no actual analysis in terms of factors or trends aside from the repetition of Democrat talking points and debate framing, for example:

    even far-right Republicans and Evangelical Christians say they will struggle to support their party’s own nominee.

    He has been tarred by the controversial birth control policies of the ultra-right

    I know that blogs still have to piggy-back on the MSM for articles, but seriously, can Kiwiblog not do better than this lightweight tripe?

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  6. Fairfacts Media (370 comments) says:

    The Boy Jack has forgotten how the Obama camp this week attacked stay-at-home mums.
    One of the Obama team accused Mitt Romney’s wife of never having worked a day in her life.
    Instead she had raised 5 kids and battled serious illness.
    In the uproar that followed, Obama has since distanced himself from the attack.
    As Obama told the Republicans several years ago “lay off my wife.”
    Pity Obama cannot control his party to show the same dignity to Mitt Romney’s wife.
    Young Jack has a fine writing style, but he needs to move beyond the talking points of the Democrats if he is to gain any credibility.
    Otherwise, it will be back to human interest stories for him, when he returns back to New Zealand.

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  7. tom hunter (4,004 comments) says:

    A quick google also reveals the following about Mr Tame’s journalistic abilities, from his coverage of the Andy Haden resignation in July 2010:

    Tame looked like a 14-year-old high school student as he re-told the events of the week, pointing at his whiteboard with interspersed flashes of stock footage to spice things up. It wasn’t news reporting. It was gratuitous use of an editing suite that was more about how cool young Tame’s story could appear on screen rather than the story itself. In short, it was a disgrace.

    Perhaps Tame was proud of his work – proud in the same way a kid would show off a school video project to his grandparents. Perhaps that’s why it wouldn’t bother TVNZ to allow such rubbish journalism to be broadcast, what with all those aging viewers and all.

    Fabulous! The only question I have left is whether his reporting on US politics was a promotion or a demotion.

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  8. Other_Andy (2,079 comments) says:

    Obama and Romney are, at the moment, pretty even.
    Thinking about it, this is actually pretty remarkable.
    Especially remarkable because there is another very important, factor in the election that is currently an ‘unknown’.
    This can swing a considerable number of voters and I think it will go Romney’s way.
    Who is going the be Romney’s Vice President?
    Obama has ‘bumbling’ Biden one of the worst VP’s (Apart maybe from Gore) in American history.
    Romney will always do better, no matter who he picks.
    Rubio, Ryan and West are currently the favourites and all of them candidates that outclass Biden by a country mile.

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  9. s.russell (1,486 comments) says:

    The RCP national poll average (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/) has Obama ahead by 2.4%. He has led Romney on that average pretty consistently for a year.

    Personally, I think Romney’s biggest handicap is his obvious insincerity. It is impossible to tell what he really believes in and he simply says whatever will go down best with his audience de jure.

    I greatly doubt his ability to oust Obama. And it is an indictment on the Republican Party that Romney is the best they could come up with.

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  10. Lindsay Addie (1,105 comments) says:

    That article by Tame isn’t very good and hasn’t been properly researched.

    Re the polls the Rasmussen poll which has a very high degree of accuracy has a small lead for Romney.

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

    The debates will play a big part in how the race turns out. Obama was helped last time by McCain’s ineffective performances in the debates.

    [DPF]: Please do a blog post on the US presidential polls as it’s a complex topic with the methods used by various pollsters being very different.

    [DPF: I'll try to at some stage. I would note that Rasmussen is in fact not that accurate and is more favourable to Republicans than other polls. Their 2010 Senate polls were significantly out]

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  11. philu (13,393 comments) says:

    “…Instead she had raised 5 kids..”

    i wonder just how many household staff/servants she had to help with that..?

    ..as a billionaires’ wife..with multiple houses on the scale of mitts’ garage having an elevator for his cars..

    ..you’d think a few…?

    phillip ure@whoar.co.nz

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  12. tom hunter (4,004 comments) says:

    Since the RCP (Real Clear Politics) site has been mentioned I think all readers interested in the polls should go to this part of RCP- 2012 Electoral College Map.

    You can dive down to see a collection of polls in each of the swing states, plus trends and a comparison to recent, relevant national elections. It’s easy and simple to use – no need to be “informed” by the likes of the Huruld nowadays.

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  13. realize (21 comments) says:

    Romney doesn’t even stand a chance, regardless of what current polls say. Lots of people are disappointed in Obama at the moment and are apathetic about the election, but when push comes to shove they’ll vote for him since he’s still the only sane choice. Also, don’t underestimate the effect his oratory will have when he goes into full-on campaign mode. I think he’s pacing himself so he doesn’t peak too soon.

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  14. mattyman1010 (32 comments) says:

    Terrible article. The two most recent polls has Romney up by 2% (fox) and 5% (Rasmussen). The average of the past 5 polls puts Obama ahead by just 2.4% (since late March). But hey Jake Tame isn’t the brightest Journo out there.

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  15. tom hunter (4,004 comments) says:

    I think it might be fun to dig back through the archives for 2009 to mid-2010 to find commentators here and leftist pundits in the US, who loudly and triumphantly brayed about how the cynical, monolithic, moronic opposition of the GOP to all the wonderful things being done by Barack, Nancy and Harry, would lead to the further isolation and humbling of the right-wing in 2010 and beyond.

    Back then it was plain common sense that opposing the “Stimulus” Bill and Obamacare would be suicidal as their benefits began to flow through the country. But (shrug of the shoulders), if the GOP wanted to be such religious, “ultra-right” blockheads about it all then it was no loss. They’d become “even more” the party of Old White Southern Men.

    Resistance was futile, the GOP didn’t stand a chance.

    And then came 2010, the greatest loss of House seats in 80 years by the party in power.

    Perhaps I should not be so hard on young Mr Tame.

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  16. Other_Andy (2,079 comments) says:

    @realize

    “Romney doesn’t even stand a chance, regardless of what current polls say. Lots of people are disappointed in Obama at the moment and are apathetic about the election, but when push comes to shove they’ll vote for him since he’s still the only sane choice. ”

    And you base that on what?

    While it might be true that some Democrats are disappointed and apathetic about the election, the vast majority of independents and Republicans are very interested in the election.

    “…sane choice”

    And what is your definition of ‘sane’?

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  17. emmess (1,333 comments) says:

    Jack Tame is something like 23 years old.
    How could anyone seriously believe he is the best qualified person to write this article?

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  18. tom hunter (4,004 comments) says:

    O_A

    You’ll note the number of comments made by “realize”. There’s a few other lefties like that who’ve been popping up on these threads about US politics to add flat assertions with even less reasoning than Tame, and probably never to be seen again.

    In short, you’re responding to a troll.

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  19. realize (21 comments) says:

    @Other_Andy

    Based on my opinion, obviously. I’m talking about the democrats when I say they are currently apathetic, which is why when they get more fired up close to the election I think the poll results will shift.

    I think it is insane to vote for a candidate who says whatever is convenient at any given moment, and whose campaign advisor says that policy positions are like an “etch-a-sketch”, and that whatever he says during the primaries doesn’t count for the general election. Pure pandering.

    I’m not a troll, I just think that current early poll results don’t reflect what will happen in the election. And I’m not a leftie here in NZ, but American republicans are skewed far too much towards religious crazies lately. Many of Obama’s positions are republican positions from a few years ago – he’s actually probably centre-right in the usual understanding. It’s just that the republicans have moved so far extreme right that he seems left compared to them.

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  20. Mark (496 comments) says:

    You can tell this is basied by the part far-right Republicans and Evangelical Christians wont support Romeny. He might not be there preferred choice, but they hate Obama more.

    Obama is dividing America like no other president, who is in over his head and it shows, four more years of Obama and the US will be completely screwed and it’s all the fault of the left.

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  21. Other_Andy (2,079 comments) says:

    “I think it is insane to vote for a candidate who says whatever is convenient at any given moment, and whose campaign advisor says that policy positions are like an “etch-a-sketch”, and that whatever he says during the primaries doesn’t count for the general election. Pure pandering.”

    You’ve just described Obama, the ‘blank slate’. While I am not wildly enthusiastic about Romney at least he is no Obama. I like a balanced budget, limited constitutional government, something that Romney might provide.

    “American republicans are skewed far too much towards religious crazies lately.”

    Like the Rev. Wright’s ‘church’ Obama used to frequent? Romney might be a Mormon but I rather have a Mormon (Nothing but good personal experiences with those.) than one of Wright’s loonies.

    “Many of Obama’s positions are republican positions from a few years ago – he’s actually probably centre-right in the usual understanding. It’s just that the republicans have moved so far extreme right that he seems left compared to them.”

    You got it the wrong way around. The ‘Democratic’ Party has moved so far to the left that any sane person sounds like a raving right wing extremist.

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  22. BlairM (2,266 comments) says:

    Nobody cares that Mitt Romney is Mormon. Really. Nobody does. They care that he’s a snake who can’t lie straight in bed.

    I honestly think this is the worst GOP nominee in living memory. Goldwater was terrible, but at least you knew what he stood for.

    I’d almost rather that Obama won and we were rid of him after four years, than put up with Romney destroying the Republican party for four years and losing to a Democrat in 2016.

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  23. tom hunter (4,004 comments) says:

    @realize

    Ok. Let’s accept that you’re not a troll and take a look at some of your comments:

    And I’m not a leftie here in NZ,….

    You’re new here so perhaps you’d indulge us by explaining what parts of your political philosophy are right-wing – in NZ.

    It’s just that – for a right-winger – you’re making an awful lot of comments that sound exactly like left-wing debate-framing:

    I think it is insane to vote for a candidate who says whatever is convenient at any given moment…

    Pure pandering

    You’ve been listening to Obama’s comments recently? You’ve compared his policy positions to what he said in 2008? How about this fresh piece of hilarity from him about “The Buffet Rule”, which he’s beating like a rented mule:

    “It will help us close our deficit.”

    A measure that the non-partisan CBO calculates will raise $3.4 billion per year – at a time when the budget deficit is something like $1300 billion? That’s not pandering, perhaps even “insane” by your standard? His actual policies are not an “etch-a-sketch” compared to “Campaign Obama”?

    All politicians pander and I have to hold my nose when considering Mitt’s flip-flops over the years, but it’s a nonsense to compare the two and not see only a slip of paper between them in this context.

    … but American republicans are skewed far too much towards religious crazies lately

    I love the use of the word lately. In fact I’ve heard exactly the same thing said about almost every GOP presidential nominee since Reagan in 1980, except HGW Bush and Dole (who was so useless he did not seem to need attacking). For the US left the GOP is always skewed too much towards religious crazies “lately”.

    Many of Obama’s positions are republican positions from a few years ago

    Well when I think of the Federal government pissing huge sums of money up against the wall I could agree. But you’re probably thinking more about the individual mandate for health insurance, yes?

    It’s just that the republicans have moved so far extreme right that he seems left compared to them.

    See what I mean about debate framing. The implication of this oft-repeated talking point is that the Democrats have stayed in the centre or at least remained as centre-left as the past 50 years. In fact the Democrats have also moved, to a left-wing position that McGovern might have embraced 40 years ago but which saw him destroyed at the polls, and which would likely crucify a Jack Kennedy (“tax cuts”) or ‘Scoop’ Jackson nowdays. They certainly did their best to end Joe Lieberman, and it was about more than his support for the Iraq war. Witness the contempt of the Clinton era that was openly expressed with Obama’s rise in 2008: no more triangulation for them.

    @Mark

    … four more years of Obama and the US will be completely screwed and it’s all the fault of the left.

    No, it will also be the fault of useless Republicans who can’t wean themselves off Federal pork or raise the courage to tackle the big ticket problems. Paul Ryan is the closest they’ve come, but his support even within the GOP is uncertain, and we’ll see how that holds up when the Dem-media complex really start playing the you’re-hurting-the-poor game. And even if it does, we’ll get a budget that proposed spending $40 trillion over the next ten years at an annual rate that’s higher than during the Clinton-Gingrich era. It’s better than nothing (nothing being the last two Obama budgets), but it’s still fairly useless.

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  24. Redbaiter (6,478 comments) says:

    “Nobody cares that Mitt Romney is Mormon”

    Stupidest comment of the day.

    Millions of orthodox Christians care and will not vote for a Mormon.

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  25. AG (1,727 comments) says:

    O_A,

    “I like a balanced budget, limited constitutional government, something that [Bill Clinton did] provide.” :-)

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  26. Johnboy (13,386 comments) says:

    Millions of viewers worldwide check out “Molly the Mormon” and her latest escapades RB.

    One should never write off fringe religionists until they have shown what they can do! :)

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  27. backster (2,000 comments) says:

    All the experts on National Radio agree Obama will win in a landslide and agree with BLAIR M.regarding Romney. I’m not so sure, O’Bama’s mateshipe with Hugo CHavez of Venuzuela and his more recent cheek by jowl with the Russian president may not be re-assuring to the Great American People.

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  28. tom hunter (4,004 comments) says:

    @BlairM

    I honestly think this is the worst GOP nominee in living memory.

    Hmm! Dole takes that prize for me.

    I’d almost rather that Obama won and we were rid of him after four years, than put up with Romney destroying the Republican party for four years and losing to a Democrat in 2016.

    Hell no. There were any number of Republicans in 2008 who either did not vote at all or voted for Obama because he said the right things about tackling the deficit and so forth: “what’s the worse that could happen – and my other choice is McCain”.

    Much as McCain annoyed me with his backstabbing of the GOP on the occasional key issue, how many GOP voters would now say that McCain would have been worse or the same as Obama? For a start, would we have Kagan and Sotomayor on the SCOTUS?

    I don’t think GOP voters are going to make the same mistake twice and the trump card will be putting the GOP not just in control of the Senate as well as the House, but with sufficient new members who are hardline budget cutters to keep the squish in line.

    I’ll admit that I’m sometimes tempted to go your apocalyptic route and even vote for the enemy, on the principle of letting them raise taxes, introduce fabulous new government programmes, increase government spending and generally do everything they want. Basically crash the system and let them be the ones to do it.

    But I figure the GOP deserve one last chance. Call it the Audacity of Hope.

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  29. Redbaiter (6,478 comments) says:

    “But I figure the GOP deserve one last chance.”

    Nope. Fuck ‘em.

    Bring on the gunfight.

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  30. realize (21 comments) says:

    I’m not saying that Obama hasn’t changed many of his positions since he campaigned. Obviously, *every* politician does that once they’re elected, and the realities of governing conflict with what they might like to do. Also, when the world changes I hope that politicians *do* change their positions to adapt.

    However, Mitt Romney changes his positions within the *same campaign*, and depending on who he’s talking to.

    @Tom

    >>”… but American republicans are skewed far too much towards religious crazies lately”

    >”I love the use of the word lately. In fact I’ve heard exactly the same thing said about almost every GOP presidential nominee since Reagan in 1980, except HGW Bush and Dole (who was so useless he did not seem to need attacking). For the US left the GOP is always skewed too much towards religious crazies “lately”.

    That may be true, but is should be obvious that its getting worse. Rick Perry is associated with the New Apostolic Reformation, which has a Dominionist view that religious organisations should control policy.

    I actually *like* the fact that Romney is a Mormon. At least their religion is so patently absurd that the American public won’t let him get away with pushing it in their faces.

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  31. tom hunter (4,004 comments) says:

    … which has a Dominionist view

    The appropriate response perhaps is “Oh God!”

    A few years ago it was “The Rapture” that was all the rage with the US left. At any moment Jerry Falwell was going to whisper about it in Ronnie’s ear, he’d push the big red button, and away we’d all go.

    This election season it’s “The Dominionists”. However – based on my reading about it last year in The New Yorker – I thought Michelle Bachmann was the target, even though she’s a Lutheran.

    I’d be willing to bet that, until that article was written, few people even on the religious-right had heard of Dominionism, let alone people on the left. Despite the fact that I, as an atheist, have known any number of religious people, I’d never once heard it mentioned.

    So, another little nugget of a Democratic talking point casually dropped into the conversation. Surely there was room to name a few of those right-wing policies and philosophies that you support?

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  32. DJP6-25 (1,229 comments) says:

    tom hunter 11:57 am. Exactly. I get my news from the new media. I only link to old media if it’s mentioned on the new media.
    I do however read the Korea Herald often. They have a ‘just the facts’ approach. The Real Clear Politics site is very good. So is the National Review online.

    cheers

    David Prosser

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  33. AG (1,727 comments) says:

    @backster: “O’Bama’s mateshipe with Hugo CHavez of Venuzuela … ”

    There’s enough to criticise Obama over without starting to make stuff up … see http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/news/2011/12/20/obama-slams-venezuelas-rights-record-ties-to-iran/

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  34. BlairM (2,266 comments) says:

    But I figure the GOP deserve one last chance. Call it the Audacity of Hope.

    You mention Dole being a worse nominee, but not really. He had already run on the VP ticket for Ford, he was the Senate Minority Leader, and he was regarded as a solid and consistent performer, albeit an unspectacular one.

    Romney, on the other hand, ran to the left of Ted Kennedy in Massachusetts, and will clearly say anything to get elected. And he can’t campaign on healthcare – Obama’s Achilles Heel.

    I am more concerned about the GOP taking the Senate – if they can do that then Obama is effectively powerless for four years. I worry that Romney will try to do deals with a Democratic Senate.

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  35. tom hunter (4,004 comments) says:

    I am more concerned about the GOP taking the Senate

    Me too and for the same reasons: it stuffs either Romney or Obama from doing anything stupid. In any case if Obama is the winner I figure the useless prick will just go golfing for the rest of his term, secure in the knowledge that a second-term means that America’s first African-American president won’t be marked down as a failure.

    And he can’t campaign on healthcare – Obama’s Achilles Heel.

    Well I think such a campaign could be made even with the millstone of Romneycare around one’s neck – but the double-millstone is that it’s Romney being asked to make the defence.

    For crying out loud, he could not even counter-attack along right-wing lines when Perry and Gingrich unloaded classic left-wing attacks on his time with Bain Capital. I think Mark Levin had a 5 minute session on this where he basically schooled Romney on how he could not only defend on Bain but use it to counter-attack. It would be nice to think that someone sent that to Romney and he listened.

    All this aside, I assume that you will hold your nose and vote for Romney?

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  36. Other_Andy (2,079 comments) says:

    Yep, it’s election time.

    http://lmaobama.com
    http://demwits.com

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  37. Other_Andy (2,079 comments) says:

    @AG

    “I like a balanced budget, limited constitutional government, something that [Bill Clinton did] provide.”

    Are you serious?

    The financial crisis we are having at the moment started with the Community Reinvestment Act. This Act was pushed hard by Bill Clinton (Although it originated under Jimmy Carter).

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  38. Fletch (5,719 comments) says:

    Obama can’t win on his record. He is a failed president.

    Witness the Solyndra fail, Fast and Furious scandal, the fact that Obamacare (his biggest “accomplishment”) is under scrutiny by the Courts and may be thrown out, gas prices through the roof and Obama won’t drill for oil, the DOJ dropping of the New Black Panther voter intimidation case (which it was sure to win) – and on and on.

    The man hasn’t done anything worthy while being in power.

    This is why the election won’t be fought on the issues. It’s going to get really, really dirty. The GOP has to not let themselves be distracted. The issue about employers having to subsidize birth control and abortion was turned into a “war on women”, instead of what it really was – an attack on freedom of conscience. They are trying to divide the country.

    Obama is even giving the Russians the amounts and serial numbers of the Trident missiles he is giving to Britain.

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  39. Redbaiter (6,478 comments) says:

    Jim Robinson on Romney-

    “He cannot lie his way out of his decades long record of support for abortion, Roe v Wade, planned parenthood, gay rights, gun control, global warming, amnesty, liberal judges, big government, compulsory or socialized health care (RomneyCommieCare), mandates, Keynesian economics, support and approval of TARP, bailouts, stimulus packages, i.e, every damn liberal progressive issue that comes down the pike.”

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  40. big bruv (12,348 comments) says:

    If Romney is for planned parenthood, gay rights, and gun control then he might be a reasonable sort of chap.

    Not that it will matter, Obama will shit in now that the matter of his birth certificate has been settled, the media will not allow him to be a one term President.

    Come to think of it, what a choice, Obama and his failed leadership or a religious nutter who has the personality of David Shearer.

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  41. BlairM (2,266 comments) says:

    All this aside, I assume that you will hold your nose and vote for Romney?

    Not eligible for citizenship until 2014, so can’t vote for anybody. Actually, the Gingrich campaign just rang me yesterday and asked if I would help them out for the Texas primary, and I said yes. I hope that between him and Ron Paul we can have some sort of convention revolt. I really think Romney is that bad. In the very likely event we do end up stuck with him… well I don’t want either Romney or Obama to be President, but I guess we have a better chance of a balanced budget with Romney? I don’t know. I simply don’t trust Romney at all. I don’t know what Romney will do. But if he does win, the GOP is stuck with him again in 2016, which would be awful for the conservative movement. At least Obama is predictable, we can hogtie him for four years, and get someone decent in at the end of his term.

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  42. Sonny Blount (1,829 comments) says:

    The other thing is apparently the next Presidential term could see up to 3 Supreme Court Justices nominated.

    Winning this election will be very important for this reason, and disastrous if the Democrats win the Senate along with the White House.

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  43. Dick (80 comments) says:

    “I hope that between him and Ron Paul we can have some sort of convention revolt.”

    Earth to Blair – not gonna happen. Despite all his correct economic predictions, Paul definitely lives in fantasy-land when it comes to his political chances.

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  44. AG (1,727 comments) says:

    O_A,

    Of course I’m serious. If you really like balanced budgets and constitutionally restrained government, then why exactly do you dislike Bill Clinton’s time as president?

    As for the “CRA caused the GFC” meme … that’s almost as silly as saying Obama is mates with Chavez: see http://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/banking_12625.htm

    “The Federal Reserve Board has found no connection between CRA and the subprime mortgage problems. In fact, the Board’s analysis found that nearly 60 percent of higher-priced loans went to middle- or higher-income borrowers or neighborhoods, which are not the focus of CRA activity. Additionally, about 20 percent of the higher-priced loans that were extended in low- or moderate-income areas, or to low- or moderate-income borrowers, were loans originated by lenders not covered by the CRA. Our analysis found that only six percent of all higher-priced loans were made by CRA-covered lenders to borrowers and neighborhoods targeted by the CRA. Further, our review of loan performance found that rates of serious mortgage delinquency are high in all neighborhood groups, not just in lower-income areas.”

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  45. kiwi in america (2,335 comments) says:

    Late to this thread – had state high school rugby championships for a team I help coach – we won 64 – 3 and on to Nationals!

    I supported Romney in 08 but Perry initially this time round due to the insufficiently conservative track record of Romney. My thoughts on the race, David comments and other comments on the thread:
    * Tame is an uninformed idiot. NZ media coverage of US politics (particularly of conservatives) is almost universally inane and hopelessly biased by not only the usual left leaning media bias but by the bien pessant snearing condescension of the chattering classes of the other western democracies to the US in general.
    * Many of the MSM polls in the US are hopelessly biased in favour of the Democrats and Obama. Many have +D weightings in excess of the +7 that Obama scored in 2008 – a high water mark for his party. The results in 2010 have made a mockery of these weightings. The polls that have the D/R/I weightings somewhat between the split in 2008 and 2010 (a fair indication of current relative party strength IMO) have Romney leading Obama.
    * Head to head nationwide polls this far out have little bearing on the final result – so much can happen in 7 months plus the Presidency is decided state by state not by the nationwide party vote as in NZ. Carter led Reagan by 20 points at this same distance out from 1980 and we know how that turned out for Carter. Ditto Bush 41 over Clinton.
    * However that said, for Obama to be only neck and neck or slightly behind Romney after Romney has been mired in a bruising primary with all the power of incumbency of the Presidency, a mostly sympathetic MSM and the current large money advantage of the Obama campaign is not a good place for Obama to be in.
    * Obama’s strategy is clear – he has no substantive successful record to run on so they are running with any distraction that the obliging media will broadcast such as spinning the fight with the Catholic church over mandated contraception as a GOP war on women a tactic that finally spectacularly backfired with Hilary Rosen’s comments about Ann Romney being a stay at home mum.
    * The GOP prmary has significantly sharpened and toughened Romney and his campaign – they have fought the war on women meme hard and eventually won that round due to the Dems own goal with Rosen (a inner circle Obama campaign advisor).
    * The money gap between Romney and Obama will narrow to a gap that will not be significant like the gap was between Obama and McCain. Romney has disavowed (like Obama) Federal matching funds (caps the campaign money allowed to be spent after the conventions), he has vastly larger PAC money spending on his behalf (eg Karl Rove’s Crossroads PAC) and Obama is raising far less from groups who were generous to him in 08 (Wall St fat cats).
    * Romney’s religion is a non event this time around. All the reliable anti Mormon tropes got well aired in 2008 – people have moved on. Fussing about Romney’s religion is the modern equivalent of accusing JFK of being in the pocket of the Pope – or Obama sitting for 20 years in the pews of a black liberation anti US radical like Jeremiah Wright – people shrug their shoulders and say “its their policies and track record that matter more than where they go to church”.
    * Romney won the states in the GOP primary that are the key battleground states in the General (FL, OH, NH, NV, MI) and lost to Gingrich or Santorum mostly in the deep south where the evangelical vote had more clout (LA, MS, AL, GA) – states that are extremely conservative and will vote for Romney in the general because he will be seen as far better than Obama.
    * Romney is conservative enough. He’s not perfect but represents to conservative fewer pokes in the eye compared to those McCain inflicted on his own party. His reversals on abortion seem genuine and are extremely unlikely to be reveresed back to the positions he held running for office in uber liberal MA. He will disappoint on some levels in office – heck so did Reagan (he signed an amnesty bill that was a complete failure) but the scale and scope of the disappointments that conservatives may likely suffer under Romney will pale into insignificance compared to what Obama will unleash in his second term untrammeled by his need to be re-elected.

    David is right. The economy will make or break Obama or Romney. Romney has staked his campaign on the fact that he is the safer and more experienced pair of hands in tough economic times. If the economy carries on the same tragectory that it seemed to be on from November until March, Obama’s chances (barring a Carteresque scale foreign policy cock up – still possible IMO) of re-election are strong. If the March job creation and jobless numbers (both significantly worse than all market commentators were predicting) become a harbinger of a stalling in the nascent US recovery and this was married to further global financial turmoil sourced from possible default crises with Portugal and Spain (combined far larger than Greece) then Obama will lose.

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