The gap gets narrower

August 21st, 2014 at 11:11 am by David Farrar


The July data is out. The Australia annual data is fascinating.

  • 22,620 people arrived from Australia in the last year, including 15,050 NZers returning home
  • Two years ago in the year to July 12, only 14,040 arrived.
  • Only 29,770 people left to Australia in the last year.
  • Two years ago in the year to July 12, 53,910 departed to Australia.
  • The net loss to Australia in the year to July 2012 was 39,870 and in the last year was just 7,150.
  • In the last two months the net loss to Australia has been under 100 a month which is under three a day!

I await opposition parties demanding we stop Australians migrating here, and stop New Zealanders returning home!

15 Responses to “The gap gets narrower”

  1. redqueen (1,765 comments) says:

    I don’t mind so much the Aussies coming here…but there is one who’s already here that I wouldn’t mind sending home. Can we bring back Ostracism, please? He could always come back in 10 years…and be sent packing again 😀

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  2. Jack5 (9,285 comments) says:

    Don’t worry, DPF. If the Greens and Labour take power they’ll stop coming home.

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  3. thor42 (971 comments) says:

    This is *great* to see!

    These are *good* people coming here and they should more than balance out the people coming here from cesspits like Somalia.
    If these people could spread around the provinces rather than be concentrated in Auckland then that would be even better.

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  4. Lance (3,818 comments) says:

    So less for the Aussies to moan about, but I am sure that will not stop them.
    It appears to be Labor in Aus that hate NZers and have relegated their rights with enthusiasm.
    Good old xenophobia, seems to be a lefty stronghold.

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  5. hj (8,596 comments) says:

    Peter highlights that we have a relatively high rate of natural increase in population.
    But we also have a large and persistent outflow of NZers (large by any comparative
    international standards). That outflow should best be seen as a rational response to
    perceived opportunities – those abroad are better than those here. Outflows of New
    Zealanders should generally act as a stabilizing force, helping to rebalance the
    economy. Economies with slow growing populations need to devote a whole lot
    smaller proportion of their real resources to simply maintaining the capital stock per
    Based solely on the fertility and migration choices of New Zealanders (each
    presumably behaving fairly rationally), our population growth would have been
    growing only quite slowly since the mid 1970s. As it is, our population growth since
    1990 has been second or third fastest in the OECD. What changed? Migration
    policy did in the early 1990s.
    And 80% of our population growth in the last couple of decades has been the net
    inflow of non NZ citizens – thus almost purely a matter of discretionary policy
    choice. Government policy interventions can act to stymie successful adjustment –
    and I believe this to have been the case in NZ over the last two decades. Our negative
    NIIP position is larger, our real exchange rate is higher, our real interest rates are
    higher, and our capital stock per worker (and associated perceived business
    opportunities) are lower than they would have been if we had simply let the selfstabilising
    behavior take its course. As John McDermott’s slides showed earlier, that
    adjustment was working prior to the mid 1980s.
    Among policy and analytical circles in New Zealand there is a pretty high degree of
    enthusiasm for high levels of immigration. Some of that stems from the insights of
    literature on increasing returns to scale. Whatever the general global story, the actual
    productivity track record here in the wake of very strong inward migration is poor.
    In an Australian context, the Productivity Commission – hardly a hot-bed of
    xenophobia or populism – concluded that any benefits from migration to Australia
    were captured by migrants and there were few or no discernible economic benefits to
    Australians. And that was in a country already rich and successful and with
    materially higher national saving and domestic investment rates than those in NZ.

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  6. Padriv Ustoev (708 comments) says:


    What Is wrong with Somalia? At least a somali man knows how to use weapons and look after a large family which is more than can be said about most Europeans. I find your comments very offensive.

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  7. Jinky (197 comments) says:

    That’s not the gap John Key was talking about! He was referring to the difference in wages between NZ and Australia. Good try again David.

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  8. adze (2,133 comments) says:

    Those down voting Patriv’s comments – it’s obviously a satire account.

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  9. thor42 (971 comments) says:

    Padriv Ustoev – “What Is wrong with Somalia?”

    I think a more useful question would be “what is *right* with Somalia?”
    Very little. It’s an Islamic hellhole.

    You will then ask “what is wrong with Islam?”.

    I look at the UK, the US and the countries in Europe (most of which have had huge numbers of immigrants flooding in, many of whom are Somali). It would be “drawing a long bow” indeed to suggest that the influx of those immigrants has been positive for those countries. The increase in welfare costs and crime has been massive.

    I’m glad you mentioned that a Somali man knows “how to look after a large family”. If that large family comes to the West you can almost guarantee that they will be living on welfare, just like those in the countries I’ve mentioned.
    Imams in the UK *have said* to their people – “come to the West! Live on their welfare and bleed the country dry!”

    So you find my comment “offensive”. I guess that’s your problem.
    This country still has free speech. There is no right to not be offended.

    I would bet that if you asked the public whether Somalia was a good or a bad place to get immigrants from, 90% of the people would say “bad”.

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  10. Padriv Ustoev (708 comments) says:


    I disagree with you.
    I think Somali immigrants are very compatible with New Zealand. Many of them have valuable skills in the marine industry which are directly transferable to work in New Zealand. As for Islam being wrong, thats only your perspective as a kaffir. Look at Holland, France or Germany, they think Islam is wonderful, no one say a bad thing about Islam, soon In New Zealand it will be the same. Insha’Alllah!

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  11. Padriv Ustoev (708 comments) says:

    As far as Somali’s in New Zealand, they have very hard time. My brother in law Abdi, had 20 year experience in costal shipping in Somali. Started working with small passenger yachts and worked his way up to oil tankers. Very hard working, very experienced.
    Made enough money to immigrate to New Zealand for his retirement. Declares all his work experience, does business immigration. Comes to New Zealand, thinking he can start up his own costal shipping business. Could not do it. So much government regulation, could not even equip his crews properly. Now works as a Taxi driver in Wellington. Such a waste of talent.

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  12. Skippytony (37 comments) says:

    Watch those numbers change if Key gets rolled and we are facing years of Greens/Mana/Internet/Labour.

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  13. UrbanNeocolonialist (810 comments) says:

    I am guessing that this is having a big positive benefit to our balance of trade figures too – could be worth a billion or more per year with the average (older) arrival from Australia being probably much wealthier than the average (young) immigrating kiwi.

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  14. jedmo (43 comments) says:

    If present comparative trends in NZ / Australia continue, in theory our free market agreement for movement of workers between the 2 countries will see more Australians coming here to live and work. I have no problem with that but would like our government to put limits in place, on welfare for Australians, same as the limits Australia have set up over there, on Kiwis. My concern is wrt the increasing Muslim problems Australia is facing, and whether this would then be more quickly getting exported here via immigration from Australia.

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  15. Odakyu-sen (3,192 comments) says:

    I guess Kiwis don’t care about New Zealand, so they leave. And I guess the government doesn’t care about New Zealand so it allows immigrant to come in at a high rate.

    So, we can’t complain then. We only have ourselves to blame.

    On the other hand, maybe the high rate of population churn is the best thing that ever happened to this little country. Time will tell.

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