The Green Party have released their policy on how they would reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 to 40% below 1990 levels.
This Green Party discussion paper shows that we can reduce New Zealand’s net annual greenhouse gas emissions to no more than 40 Mt of CO2-equivalent by 2030, even if there was a five year transition period for the farming industry. This is an emissions reduction of at least 40 percent below the 1990 gross emissions level and would put us broadly on a straight-line path to being climate neutral (zero net emissions) by 2050.
Now in 2013, our greenhouse gas emissions were 81 Mt, so this is a 50% reduction in just 15 years. I’m not sure there is a country on Earth that has managed that. But let’s look at the details of how they say it can be done.
Firstly they seem to be comparing apples and oranges, which is very misleading. They are talking a net 40 Mt in 2030 compared to a gross 67 in 1990. The net in 1990 was 38,000 according to our official inventory.
So how do they say they will reduce 28 Mt. The break down is:
- Agriculture 2.2
- Industrial Processes 2.1
- Other fossil fuel burning 3.7
- Waste 3.6
- Transport 7.7
- Electricity 4.8
- Forestry 4.0
Let’s look at each in turn:
- Agriculture – 2.2 reduction out of 31.7 – 7% decrease
- Industrial Processes – 2.1 reduction out of 5.1 – 41% decrease
- Waste – 3.6 out of 5.1 – 71% decrease
- Electricity – 4.8 out of 5.0 – 96% decrease
- Transport – 7.7 out of 12.7 – 61% decrease
- Forestry – 4.0 more on top of 26.7 – 15% increase
I don’t think we can or ever should be 100% renewable as that threatens security of supply. We’re 80% renewable and could see us getting to 95% or so.
The transport scenario is pie in the sky. It is based on 100% of new cars sold by 2030 being electric cars. I’m a fan of electric cars but no sensible Government would ever make a commitment that they will basically ban new non-electric cars within 15 years.
Also not very realistic is saying we’ll save 2.8 Mt a year from biofuels. for the transport sector. The last time biofuels were subsidised to promote them, it led to mass starvation as arable land was converted to biofuels.
The agricultural policy is based on 2,400 farms reducing their dairy herd by 75 cows each or a 15% reduction.
The forestry increase would require 50,000 to 100,000 hectares of land to have pine forest planted on them – every year. This would mean a reduction in farming of that many hectares every year. Wouldn’t want to be a farmer as the Government takes your land off you to plant pine trees on!
Credit to the Greens for having a reasonably detailed plan, and they have shown how we could have a more ambitious target than the current one. However while some aspects of their plan are practical, other aspects are ludicrous – such as the assumption there will be no new petrol cars within 15 years.