Full Wellington Mayoralty SYV Results

WCC has now put up the full STV results for the Mayoralty.

They are about as user unfriendly as you can get, so I’ve calculated below the situation at each step, and how votes were transferred. This is what it would be good for the local authorities to display.

Round 1

Burke 486 0.9%
Goulden 7,591 14.6%
Hay 1,141 2.2%
O’Brien 6,480 12.4%
Pepperell 7,944 15.2%
Prendergast 22,012 42.2%
Ruben 6,495 12.5%

Total 52,149 100.0%

So Kerry had a healthy 42% of the first preferences, with the next person on 15%.

Burke dropped out as lowest polling, and because he actually withdrew also. His 486 votes went:

Goulden 112 27.7%
Hay 54 13.4%
O’Brien 80 19.8%
Pepperell 49 12.1%
Prendergast 57 14.1%
Ruben 52 12.9%

Total 404

Exhausted 82

Round 2

Goulden 7,703 14.8%
Hay 1,195 2.3%
O’Brien 6,560 12.6%
Pepperell 7,993 15.4%
Prendergast 22,069 42.4%
Ruben 6,547 12.6%

Total 52,067 100.0%

A disturbing number of votes for the anti capitalist alliance candidate, but Hay drops out next. His 1,195 votes went:

Goulden 165 17.0%
O’Brien 218 22.4%
Pepperell 281 28.9%
Prendergast 131 13.5%
Ruben 177 18.2%

Total 972

Exhausted 223

It is no surprise that most of Hay’s preferences next go to Pepperll, and the least to Kerry.

Round 3

Goulden 7,868 15.2%
O’Brien 6,778 13.1%
Pepperell 8,274 16.0%
Prendergast 22,200 42.8%
Ruben 6,724 13.0%

Total 51,844 100.0%

Ruben drops out ahead of O’Brien, by only 54 votes.

Ruben dropping out briungs us the first large redistribution of 6,724 votes:

Goulden 1,466 27.3%
O’Brien 759 14.1%
Pepperell 2,174 40.5%
Prendergast 970 18.1%

Total 5,369

Exhausted 1,355

41% of Ruben’s vote goes to his former mate Pepperell. Kerry picks up 18% which is ahead of Tim O’Brien.

Round 4

Goulden 9,334 18.5%
O’Brien 7,537 14.9%
Pepperell 10,448 20.7%
Prendergast 23,170 45.9%

Total 50,489 100.0%

Kerry is getting fairly close to the magic 50%. O’Brien (the favoured candidate of the intelligent left) drops out now and his 7,537 votes go:

Goulden 1,054 18.9%
Pepperell 3,772 67.6%
Prendergast 756 13.5%

Total 5,582

Exhausted 1,955

Almost two thirds of O’Brien voters now go to Pepperell.

Round 5

Goulden 10,388 21.4%
Pepperell 14,220 29.3%
Prendergast 23,926 49.3%

Total 48,534 100.0%

Kerry missed out by 500 votes from winning on the 5th iteration. So Goulden drops out and his vote goes:

Pepperell 3,895 55.9%
Prendergast 3,076 44.1%

Total 6,971

Exhausted 3,417

Goulden’s preferences split quite equally with a small majority to Pepperell, but nowhere near enough. We then have the final result

Round 6

Pepperell 18,115 40.2%
Prendergast 27,002 59.8%

Total 45,117 100.0%

This is a good example of how STV works. Kerry had a massive lead in round one of 42% to 15%. This narrowed with redistributions to a final result of 60% to 40% which is still significant, but closer.

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