For some reason the local media here only report poll results showing Kerry in the lead, or tied. Thus locals are so surprised when I state that Bush has been consistently leading in the polls.
Real Clear Politics maintain a list of all published polls, and does an average of them. This gives the best indication that Bush has a fairly consistent, yet small, lead.
Kerry can still win, especially if like Gore their voters are more motiviated to turn out on election day, but at this stage it is hard to see what he can do to claw back Bush.