The first reading got 66 votes. You need 61 votes to pass. It looks like Stephen Franks, Gerry Eckhoff and Brian Donnelly will vote against (so much for ACT being the liberal party) so that reduces it to 63.
There are four others who may drop their support, and if they do so it only has 59 votes. But in that case two Labour MPs (Mackey and Laban) will vote for it to save it, even if personally uncommitted.
If that happens then it passes 61 votes to 58 with Ashraf Choudhary abstaining again!
I hope though that the four waverers do stay with it which will keep it at 65 votes in favour.