David Cameron

I expected the UK Conservative Party to get a poll bump from the election of David Cameron as leader. Hence I didn’t think it worth blogging a couple of weeks ago polls showing the Conservatives 2% ahead of Labour.

However even the Labour-leaning Sun has said the Conservatives are back in business with the latest poll showing them 9% ahead of Labour.

Even though such a lead will not last, one can not under-estimate its importance. It means people are feeling comfortable about telling a pollster they could vote Tory. After almost 13 years flat-lined at around 30%, they have got up to 40%.

And this poll was done before the latest EU deal which may deliver a huge backlash to Blair and force him out earlier than he wants.

You know it is a bad deal for the UK when Jacques Chirac is praising Tony Blair’s “courage, initiative and responsibility”. This is like having George W Bush praise you for your diplomacy – electoral poison back home.

As the Telegraph points out, Tony Blair’s agreement to give

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