Winston Peters and recessions

If there was a Nobel Prize for Economics then Michael Ellis may have just won it. Economists the world over ponder what causes a recession and how do you stop it. Well Michael has initial research showing a link between Winston Peters being a Minister and NZ going into recession.

I’ve pulled out my own GDP tables and looked at the periods Peters was a Minister:

Oct 90 – Oct 91
Dec 96 – Aug 98
Oct 05 –

In his first period as a Minister real GDP shrunk 1.9% in 1991. Then after Peters left the economy grew by 20.6% in real terms over the next five years.

Then Peters is back in power for seven quarters and growth over those seven quarters is a terrible cumulative 2.4% with a recession occurring during that period.

Then the moment he is gone, growth booms and in real terms GDP grows by 27.0% from Sep 98 to Sep 05.

Then he’s back and GDP starts to decline.

Surely this correlation is worthy of a massive grant from the Government to investigate?