Many will be aware that global temperatures reached a peak in 1998, and have not risen since then. Now that does not mean there is no global warming, because people argue temperatures have to be looked at over longer time-frames such as 30 years.
I certainly agree with that, but note of course every year no further warming happens, means one gets more sceptical of the accuracy of the models (and they are just models) for future increases.
Now a study by German scientists (peeer reviewed and published in Nature magazine) has concluded:
Researchers studying long-term changes in sea temperatures said they now expect a “lull” for up to a decade while natural variations in climate cancel out the increases caused by man-made greenhouse gas emissions.
Now this doesn’t mean that carbon emissions are not a problem. There is little doubt greenhouse gases keep heat in and if nothing else changes will push temperatures up. But the key thing is if nothing else changes, and that is the area where so little is known. How does water vapour for example react to an increase in greenhouse gases.
So while this does not mean no action should be taken to reduce carbon emissions, it does clearly signal how much uncertainty there is over what will happen in the future. Projection models are merely models, and are not scientific facts.
The science is of course what is important, and it is sad to see Frog Blog repeating moronic scare mongering claims from some UN politician that climate change could force one billion people from their homes by 2050. This is sensationalist crap.
Even the official IPCC projections are simply for an increase in sea level by 2100 of 19 to 89 cm. By 2050 it would be way less than half of that.
I’ll be 83 in 2050 and if I am still here I could do with a huge year round jaunt on a super yacht. So I’m prepared to do a bet with Frog Blog. If even 100 million people have been forced out of their homes by climate change by 2050, I will pay Frog $50 million. And if they have not Frog pays me $5 million.