Emissions Trading Scheme Poll

Exceltium have released a poll on the Emissions Trading Scheme they commissioned from Digipoll.

It is very detailed, running to 14 pages of results and the full data is over on Curiablog. There is a mass of data there for politicians and policy makers. I thought I would comment on some of the results:

Support for ETS Legislation – 34% in favour, 24% against

A plurality in favour of the legislation, but with 41% neutral it is not a heart and minds issue for most NZers.

View on climate change – 20% say world’s most important issue, 45% say an important issue, 15% say not a major issue and 16% say it is natural not manmade.

That’s a fairly big chunk in what I call the moderate middle position – it is important but not the most important issue. A significant number at 31% saying it is not a major issue at all.

Preferred policy response – 10% say NZ should be the world leader, 49% say NZ should be one of the world’s leaders and 29% say a fast follower, plus 8% say do nothing.

Again the moderate middle position is well supported.

Willingness to pay – 43% would be willing to pay an extra $10 a week in energy costs, 16% willing to pay $20 a week, 5% willing to pay $40 a week and 1% willing to pay $100 a week.

$10 a week seems to be the limit for the vast majority in terms of paying extra.

Integration with Australia – 62% say wait a month to see Australian scheme, 34% say proceed now with legislation.

Seems a no brainer to me.

Wait for other countries – 40% agree the legislation should only be passed as other countries pass such legislation to prevent job losses offshore, while 31% disagree.

This gets a bit murky as the key issue is what countries do you wait for? US? China? India? Or just Australia?

Will the ETS be effective – 34% agree that the ETS as written will not cut carbon emissions enough to make a difference while 27% disagree.

This shoud give the Greens food for thought – only 27% are saying they think the current scheme will cut emissions enough.

Non Labour Voters – If the Government passes the scheme ahead of the Australian one it will make 7% of non Labour voters more likely to vote Labour and 13% less likely.

A net 6% less likely. And if they do wait to see details of the Australian scheme the numbers reverse with 13% more likely to vote Labour and 6% less likely.

NZ First potential voters – 19% say best option is to pass the ETS before the Australians, 62% say encourage Helen Clark to begin multi-party talks after she talks to the Australian PM and 13% say don’t support ETS at all.

I predict Winston will back it regardless in exchange for a big lump of cash for the election campaign.

Potential Green supporters – are asked even if scheme is not made tougher, and Greens vote for it, how will that affect support – and 23% say more likely to support Greens and only 8% less likely.

Based on that the Greens can vote for it,even if they get no improvements.

If they do hold out though, they also do not get punished with 16% saying they are more likely to vote Green and only 14% less likely if the ETS doesn’t pass because the Greens refuse to support it unless made tougher.

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