The real issue for Clark is not whether she will sack Winston. Barring a miracle tonight, that will happen. All that means is he loses his baubles a few weeks early.
The real issue, is will she rule NZ First (so long as led by Winston) out of any post-election deal, should they make it back in?
I suspect she won’t. I suspect she will sack him (telling Winston sorry but I have to do it as you got found out) but if he makes it back, she will happily negotiate a confidence and supply agreement with them, if it means she stays Prime Minister. She’ll say such an agreement is about policies, not personalities.
So that is the question that should be asked Clark when she sacks him. Does she rule out any and all deals with NZ First post-election, if they make it back?