I’m interested in three things:
- What will the turnout be
- Will Shearer’s majority be larger than Clark’s or not?
- Will Russel Norman manage to steal second?
Should have the advance votes soon for an indication.
Advance votes are in and Shearer has 1,435 and Lee has 456, In 2008 they were 1,388 and 791 so if turnout is the same that would project a 12,500 majority. But only two booths in so far.
Six booths in and Shearer has a 3:1 lead – as the polls predicted. He has a 1,558 majority so far and only 3,658 votes counted. He could well beat Clark’s majority.
Only five booths and specials to go and Shearer has 62% of the vote and a majority of 6,534 and growing. Whether he beats Clark depends on turnout.