The TPM overhang strategy could result in permament left wing government

Te Pati Maori are trying to use the Māori seats to engineer overhang seats, to try and lock the centre right out of power – even if they win more votes. But recent law changes means the potential impact of this strategy could be huge.

At present there are seven Māori seats. If TPM won all seven, and got fewer than 0.4% PV that would be a seven seat overhang. It means that you would need 64 seats to form a Government instead of 61.

But if they are allowed to do this without consequence, then at the next boundary setting it could be even worse. The law recently changed so that Māori can change rolls at whim (except just before an election). This means that TPM could campaign for every person of Māori descent to go onto the Māori roll just before the boundaries are set, to get more Māori seats. Then they can transfer back off it a few weeks later. This is why the law change was a very bad thing – it encourages tactical roll changes. When you have to stay on the roll you choose for the next five years, you are less inclined to play games.

There are currently 256,000 NZers of Māori descent on the general roll and 305,000 on the Māori roll. If the vast majority swapped tactically (and most vote left so could be inclined to do so), then we could have 13 Māori electorates rather than seven. And if TPM managed to get 13 overhang seats, then you would need 67 seats to form a Government, instead of 61.

In 2008 the CR got only 64 seats. In 2011 61 seats and in 2014 62 seats. If the threshold for the CR to govern is 67 seats instead of 61, you will end up with near permanent CL government. It will be race based minority rule, which will engender a huge backlash.