iPredict this week

My iPredict column:

New Obama Stock

OBAMA.DISAP.1MAR pays out if President Obama’s disapprovals outweigh his approvals at 1 March 2010. He currently has an 8% margin – 52% to 44%.

The stock floated at 29c, and has been fairly constant for the last few days at just under 40c.

I am selling this stock. I think Obama’s numbers will still be positive in March. He should have passed his healthcare bill by then, which will give him a boost. Also in early 2010 he will do a state of the union address which traditionally should give him a boost also. Add to that a slowly improving economy.

2010 Polls

The poll stocks have got more complex, with a series of stocks that pay out depending on the level of support for National and Labour in the first Roy Morgan of 2010. NAT.JAN10.VLOW is at 14c and pays out if National polls under 48.5% in that first 2010 poll.

National has not been under 48.5% in the 18 Roy Morgan polls, so I’m selling this one also.

Most Traded Stocks

A lighter week. The petrol stocks had around $8,000 of trading, around $5,500 on the Roy Morgan polls and $3,000 on house prices.

Cheers,

David

Disclosure

David’s current positions are:

BROWN.RESIGN Short, DEP.GOFF.2010 Short, DEP.KING.2010 Short, DL.KING.09 Short, FASA04.REPEAL Short, GST.UP.JULY10 Short, LEAD.GOFF.09 Short, MAYOR.BROWN Long, MIN.DEPART2.09 Short, MP.ANDERTON Short, MP.PETERS.2011 Short, NAT.JAN10.VLOW Short, NAT.MAORI.09 Short, OBAMA.DISAP.1MAR Short, OCR.INCR.APR10 Short, OCR.INCR.JAN10 Short, OCR.INCR.JUL10 Short, PETERS.LEADER Long, PM.2011.NATIONAL Long, UK2010.CON.ABS Long, UK2010.CON.MAJ Short, ZIM.MUGABE Short

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