Ministerial blog poll results November 2010

Okay over 600 votes in a couple of days. So let’s look at the results. Not remember these are not scientific results, but they do give some idea of the sentiments of Kiwiblog readers over time.

First we have the net approval ratings. This is the % who give an above average rating less the % who give a below average rating. The results are, with previous results, below.

Net Approval Nov-10 Aug-09 May-09 Mar-09
Key 65% 43% 57% 67%
English 40% 31% 44% 54%
Brownlee 27% 12% 6% 2%
Power 23% 31% 41% 54%
Ryall 60% 43% 47% 43%
Smith -23% -15% -8% 27%
Collins 53% 51% 37% 46%
Tolley 13% 3% 13% 21%
Finlayson 36% 47% 52% 53%

So in terms of net approval eight out of nine have a positive rating. The exception is Nick Smith, and in my opinion that is probably more a reflection of sentiment on the ETS.

Six Ministers have improved their ratings since last August, and three have dipped. Those three are Power, Smith and Finlayson. There is perhaps a common theme of some discontent with certain policies coming through.

The nine Ministers in order of net approval are Key, Ryall, Collins, English, Finlayson, Brownlee, Power, Tolley and Smith. Note these are the blog poll ratings – not my personal views.

The PM has had a big lift in approval from last year – perhaps a combination of the Earthquake and the Hobbit movies. he has reclaimed the top spot.

English seems to have recovered from the housing issues of 2009 also, and has a solid +40% ratings

Gerry Brownlee would probably get the prize for most improved – from a +2% in Mar 2009 to +27% today.

Simon Power has gone the other way – he was 2nd highest in March 2009 and is in 7th place now. Perhaps the talk of regulating the Internet has not helped.

Ryall and Collins basically continue to have excellent ratings – Ryall especially has had a big jump up.

Nick Smith remains at No 9. Again, I think this is partly because of his portfolios.

Anne Tolley gains 10% from last year and seems to be gaining some fans for her refusal to be cowed by the unions.

Chris Finlayson retains a solid rating but has dropped a fair bit – no doubt linked to the Foreshore & Seabed issues.

Now let’s look at what I call the weighted average. This is where you assign a weight of 100% for very good, 75% for good, 50% for average, 25% for poor and 0% for very poor. This calculation captures the intensity of approval and disapproval, and anything over 50% signifies an above average rating.

Weighted Average Nov-10 Aug-09 May-09 Mar-09
Key 79% 68% 76% 80%
English 63% 60% 66% 70%
Brownlee 57% 53% 50% 49%
Power 58% 61% 66% 71%
Ryall 76% 67% 70% 66%
Smith 39% 43% 44% 58%
Collins 73% 73% 66% 70%
Tolley 53% 49% 53% 57%
Finlayson 64% 68% 71% 71%

Three Ministers are in the 70s – Key, Ryall and Collins. In the 60s we have Finlayson and English. The 59s have Power, Brownlee and Tolley and Nick Smith at under 50%.

So overall sentiment about most Ministers is up from 14 months ago – close to the what it was in the first half of 2009.

I’ll try and remember to do another of these in the 1st half of 2011.

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