The trend for Labour

The latest Roy Morgan poll almost reverses the one before with National up four and Labour down six.

Over at Stuff, I look at what the long-term trend has been in the Roy Morgan polls:

If you project the polls forward through to the election, the trend suggests National will be just over 50 per cent and Labour will be just under 34 per cent – basically what they got in 2008. The trend since January 2009 has been for the gap between National and Labour to close, but very slowly. National has dropped 2 per cent over three years on the trend, and Labour has increased 3 per cent, so the gap is reducing by around 5 per cent over the projected three years. If that rate continued it would not be until almost 2020 that Labour outpolled National.

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