Will it be 2002 reversed?

Stuff reports:

National is looking unstoppable on its way to a historic outright election win as Labour plunges in a Fairfax Media-Research International Poll.

The poll has National on 52.5 per cent, and Labour sliding to 25.9 per cent, 17 days from the election.

Labour would lose 10 seats if those results were repeated on election night, while National would get nine extra seats, and bring in a slew of new faces.

The Green Party has profited most from Labour’s slump, rising to 12.6 per cent in today’s poll – which would give it seven more seats in Parliament and nine new faces because of retirements.

Labour have dropped 5.4% since their last poll, taking them halfway to the 21% National got in 2002. The poll covers the disaster of a debate for Goff last week, but would not cover Labour’s pledge to give beneficiaries with a dependent child an extra $70/week.

What is interesting is that Labour are now at only twice the support of the Greens. In 2008 they got five times as many votes.

On this poll Labour gets 33 seats. They could well win 24 electorates, which if so means only nine list MPs. This means they would lose Rajen Prasad, Raymond Huo, Carol Beaumont, Kelvin Davis, Carmel Sepuloni, Rick Barker, Stuart Nash and Steve Chadwick.

At that level of party vote, Labour would also have to worry about some of its marginal seats. If Phil Twyford does not win Te Atatu, or Chris Hipkins loses Rimutaka, or Iain Lees-Galloway loses Palmerston North, then they would not come back in on the list as they are ranked too low. Instead Rajen Prasad would get back in.

A result on this poll would be bad enough, but if Labour loses another 3%, then Shane Jones and Andrew Little miss out, as well as Darien Fenton and Moana Mackey.