Labour candidates picking up National voters

I’ve done an analysis of split voting from the official data in the E9. Will do a few posts on this.

The table below lists in order what percentage of people who gave National their party vote, gave their electorate vote to the Labour candidate. To some degree this measures the cross-party appeal of a candidate.

% of Nat PV voting Lab EV
Manukau East 27.3%
Christchurch East 23.7%
Waimakariri 21.1%
Mt Albert 19.6%
Rongotai 17.0%
Mt Roskill 16.5%
West Coast Tasman 16.0%
Rimutaka 14.8%
Port Hills 14.4%
Te Atatu 13.6%
Palmerston North 13.4%
Hutt South 13.1%
Wellington Central 12.7%
New Lynn 11.2%
Mangere 11.0%
Dunedin South 9.9%
Wigram 9.4%
New Plymouth 8.7%
Christchurch Central 8.1%
Rangitata 7.1%
Manurewa 6.6%
Mana 6.6%
Napier 6.4%
Auckland Central 5.5%
Ohariu 5.4%
Whanganui 5.3%
Dunedin North 5.1%
Rotorua 4.7%
East Coast 4.1%
Hamilton West 3.4%
Otaki 3.4%
Invercargill 3.1%
Hamilton East 3.0%
Wairarapa 3.0%
Waitakere 2.9%
Rangitikei 2.8%
Nelson 2.8%
Maungakiekie 2.6%
Northcote 2.4%
Pakuranga 2.3%
Kaikoura 2.3%
Botany 2.0%
Tukituki 1.9%
North Shore 1.9%
Ilam 1.8%
East Coast Bays 1.4%
Waitaki 1.3%
Bay of Plenty 1.1%
Whangarei 1.1%
Hunua 1.0%
Papakura 0.9%
Northland 0.9%
Coromandel 0.8%
Epsom 0.8%
Waikato 0.8%
Rodney 0.7%
Tamaki 0.7%
Clutha Southland 0.6%
Taranaki-King Country 0.5%
Selwyn 0.5%
Taupo 0.5%
Tauranga 0.4%
Helensville 0.3%

The Labour candidates who did best at attracting support from National voters were Ross Robertson in Manukau East, Lianne Dalziel in Christchurch East and Clayton Cosgrove in Waimakariri. They all got over 20% of National voters to vote for them.

Damien O’Connor shows how he won West Coast-Tasman, with 16% of National voters having voted for him.

Of the seats won by Labour, Dunedin North had the least number of National party voters vote for the Labour candidate – at 5.1%.

The seat where the Labour candidate got the fewest National voters was not surprisingly Helensville where Jeremy Greendrook-Held got only 0.3% of National voters voting for him. Not far behind was Tauranga where Deborah Mahuta-Coyle got only 0.4% of National voters to vote for her.

In total there were 13 seats where Labour candidates failed to attract even 1 in 100 National voters.

Tomorrow I’ll blog how the National candidates did picking up votes from Labour voters, and then how candidates from both parties did picking up votes from Green voters.


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