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May 2, 2013 6:42pm by David Farrar

Latest poll

I’ve blogged at Curiablog the results of the latest Roy Morgan poll, which is a big mover. Note, it is often quite variable.

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NZ Politics
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Comments (54)

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Alan Johnstone

Does anyone take Roy Morgan seriously ?
1 6
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May 2, 2013 6:50pm
Johnboy

Paul Quinn made another wrong move then! 🙂

Shit happens! 🙂
0 2
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May 2, 2013 6:55pm
thor42

This poll is actually quite disappointing.
After the “brain-fart energy policy release” by Labour and the Greens, I was expecting Labour’s support to have almost halved. No such luck.

I expect they, on the other hand, would be quite heartened by this.
By that, I mean that they have not really been very badly punished by what was a very risky policy-release.
They will almost certainly make up this lost support by the time the election rolls around.
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May 2, 2013 7:01pm
PaulL

+6% for National is pretty good really, given that the first asset partial sale is going through at the moment. I suspect they’d be pretty happy. But I think DPF’s caution is right – one poll is not a trend.
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May 2, 2013 7:07pm
RightNow

The Projected Seats for NZ First should read 0 rather than 6 (I assume)
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May 2, 2013 7:27pm
niggly

Crikey … and will the authors at the Standard feature this poll result?

A couple of weeks ago they (and other hard-left commentators) were crowing about the ascendancy of a combined Labour and Muppet coalition having more combined seats than National and would then govern.

Wonder if they now might view the handling of the NZ Power issue differently now that both Labour & Muppets went down 6 points? The “handling” which saw both Shearer and Norman go MIA, Hughes revealing his puppet master strings, Parker’s lack of economic wisdom etc.
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May 2, 2013 7:38pm
Sir Cullen's Sidekick

Roy Morgan simply adds up the percentages of the right and left and concludes that the communists and hippies out number National and their useless partners. But this is a pleasing result as the gap between National and the communist Labour is now 10%. We need to now wait and see the results of One News and 3 News Polls which I guess will be another month away.
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May 2, 2013 7:40pm
slightlyrighty

A 10% swing to National is no small matter. Is the threshold for seats in Parliament still 5%? If so, then NZ first should not have any seats.
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May 2, 2013 8:07pm
Pete George

The previous Roy Morgan was a fairly sharp move, this looks to be a normalisation with a bit of a tweak on the back of the Marriage Bill and NZ Power.

The next poll in a fortnight will give a better idea iif this is a wobble or the start of a change in trend.
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May 2, 2013 8:08pm
Longknives

Not a bad result for the Nats considering what a pack of prize twats they have been lately (Catholic-bashing speeches, threatening waiters with the sack etc etc…)
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May 2, 2013 8:10pm
hamnidaV2

Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.
I very much doubt this poll is accurate. I’ve not met anyone who has said they will vote National in about 18 months.

[DPF: you have no idea how much that reveals about you. Rather sad]
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May 2, 2013 8:16pm
Than

An encouraging result. And I will personally enjoy a satisfied grin that this exactly matches my predictions.

Even given the volatility of the Roy Morgan poll a 12% overall shift is quite large. The best case for the left is that their NZ Power announcement has had no influence on voters at all. Much more likely they have shed some votes, and the question now is just how many.
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May 2, 2013 8:16pm
Than

LOL, that’s the left-wing spirit Hamnida. When empirical evidence gets in your way, just say you don’t believe it and carry on!
16 1
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May 2, 2013 8:18pm
Longknives

Probably not that many National voters down at your local WINZ office Hamnida….
(Or at your local tinnie house..)
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May 2, 2013 8:20pm
slightlyrighty

Haminda,

I can only assume you operate in small, counter clockwise circles.
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May 2, 2013 8:20pm
Keeping Stock

Polling took place between the 15th and 28th of April (14 days). The NZ Power announcement was made on 18 April, the 4th day of polling. Effectively, around 75% of polling will have been done AFTER Labour and the Greens released their supposed circuit-breaking power policy.

This is a dreadful result for the Left. The MRP sale ends tomorrow, and interest has been strong, despite the Labour/Green attempt to nobble it. This is a victory for Key and National.
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May 2, 2013 8:35pm
Pete George

Very subdued at The Standard in contrast to celebrations after the last poll. It is a kick in the guts for NZ Power, they should have been hoping to at least hold on to the last poll gains (which seemed a bit of a sharp move their way).
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May 2, 2013 8:45pm
Viking2

hamnidaV2 (202) Says:
May 2nd, 2013 at 8:16 pm

I very much doubt this poll is accurate. I’ve not met anyone who has said they will vote National in about 18 months.

A clear indication that you need to get out more to work and to change your scumbag friends for a better class of friend.
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May 2, 2013 8:47pm
Viking2

Anyone seen Wuzzell and Sheep or are they still on the other side of the world using up their carbon credits before they expire?
11 0
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May 2, 2013 8:49pm
Johnboy

Once my MRP shares leap from $2.00 to $3.00 I will vote for National too! 🙂
7 0
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May 2, 2013 8:50pm
Pete George

Shearer came back early and is at Horomia’s send-off.

Norman is due back at the end of this week, he had two weeks leave (after the big power announcement).

Turei was criticisng the business organisations who released the open letter on power today.

Ms Turei says members of the 10 lobby groups stood to gain lower-cost electricity and slammed their suggestion that cheaper power would encourage households to use too much electricity.

“Business New Zealand and National seem to think that electricity companies’ profits matter more than lower power bills for families and businesses,” she says.

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/talk-us-power-parker-tells-business-lobby-bd-139577

And David Parker said he knows more about markets than Phil O’Reilly. They really seem to think they can tell any opponents to get stuffed while they supersocialise the country.

I wonder if Parker knows polling better than Roy Morgan.
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May 2, 2013 8:56pm
Johnboy

“Shearer came back early and is at Horomia’s send-off.”

UN blokes are good at helping dispose of the free food! 🙂
9 1
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May 2, 2013 9:00pm
Griff

There seems to be a massive swing to the conservatives.
At this rate they will fail to get a seat and rise up to Christian party heaven.
6 2
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May 2, 2013 9:02pm
hmmokrightitis

hamfucker, you might need to change biscuits or indeed even go so far as to find a new circle for jerk I think.
9 1
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May 2, 2013 9:04pm
NK

I very much doubt this poll is accurate. I’ve not met anyone who has said they will vote National in about 18 months.

You’ll get that result if you’re a leftie talking to a mirror in a psychiatric hospital.
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May 2, 2013 9:13pm
wreck1080

Regarding labours power restructuring : many labour voters will have seen huge power price increases and it is only natural to believe power privatisation has been a failure.

There is probably an element of truth in that too, as power prices have not fallen similarly to phone calls. But, you really would expect a similar fall if the power industry was in such a mess before the reforms.
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May 2, 2013 9:16pm
Elaycee

Hambone: 8.16pm:

I’ve not met anyone who has said they will vote National in about 18 months.

Are you under house arrest? And do you live alone? 😀
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May 2, 2013 9:22pm
duggledog

Longknives @ 8.20 pm:

“Probably not that many National voters down at your local WINZ office Hamnida….
(Or at your local tinnie house..)”

LK, no no no. This is not the droid you are looking for!

Hamnida will have had a privileged upbringing in a leafy suburb. He’ll be a university dropout trustafarian, they almost always are
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May 2, 2013 9:39pm
searching

I am waiting for Aaron Gilmours view on this or is he still pissed?
4 2
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May 2, 2013 10:38pm
edd

Smells like a set up poll to help with the asset sales.
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May 2, 2013 10:59pm
rg

Again we see the pollster trying to influence outcomes. having got every poll about ACT Party wrong they can claim no credibility especially a poll prediction that has ACT on 0 seats despite the people of Epsom knowing that the only reason John Key is PM and not phil Goff is because they voted for the ACT candidate. Any National supporter that didn’t vote for the ACT candidate has a head of rocks. Any National voyer that does nt vote ACT candidate in 2014 is likewise stupid.
NZ First should have seats in the prediction because below 5%
More nonsense from Curiablog.
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May 2, 2013 11:37pm
niggly

Smells like a set up poll to help with the asset sales.

Really? Why that naughty Mr Roy Morgan, rigging his own polls eh!

And to think that during the Clark era Roy Morgan polls usually always favoured Labour by a few percentage points out of step with all the others? Well I never, how could this be now!
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May 2, 2013 11:37pm
axeman

hamnidaV2 (202) Says:
May 2nd, 2013 at 8:16 pm

I very much doubt this poll is accurate. I’ve not met anyone who has said they will vote National in about 18 months.
——————————————————————————————————————————————–
Haha very hilarious. Mind you that is basically what the odious prick known as ‘Colonic Arsewiper’ said over on the SUB-standard before the 2011 election. Crowing about how many Liarbore Party memberships he had sold in Dunedin, he also mentioned that he didn’t know of ANYONE who was going to vote for the evil National Party.

Result: MP Clare Curran had her majority slashed in the traditional Labour stronghold of Dunedin South and National pulled off a MASSIVE UPSET by winning the party vote in the working class electorate.
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May 2, 2013 11:59pm
Sir Cullen's Sidekick

hamnidaV2 (202) Says:
May 2nd, 2013 at 8:16 pm

I very much doubt this poll is accurate. I’ve not met anyone who has said they will vote National in about 18 months.

Pathetic really. This means you haven’t been discharged from the asylum for the last the 18 months.
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May 3, 2013 4:00am
Pete George

having got every poll about ACT Party wrong

No they haven’t. No one has polled on election day. All they polls do is give an approximate snapshot of opinion at the time they are taken, with well known statistical margins of error.

Small party support and the final few percent of larger party support is known to be very fluid leading up to an election, with a small but significant number of voters deciding late.

NZ First party vote moved substantially in the last three weeks of the 2011 campaign.

A single electorate as pivotal as Epsom involves a lot of tactical voting, with many voters waiting to see how the national and the electorate numbers seem to be lining up before deciding how to vote.

Any National supporter that didn’t vote for the ACT candidate has a head of rocks.

Nonsense. Voters have many different reasons for voting the way they do, with both electorate and national considerations. It’s entirely up to them to make their decision.

And we have no idea who vote for whom – many National voters will have voted for Banks. But many Labour and Green and floating lefty voters may have voted for the National candidate.
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May 3, 2013 6:10am
RRM

edd (64) Says:

Smells like a set up poll to help with the asset sales.

😆

Smells like Labour policies are shit, Labour candidates are shit; another 6 % of the public just realised this, and they are not impressed.

Wait, this can’t be right, the Ministry of Love said We are at war With Eurasia and East Asia, and they said Labour knows how to run 14 power companies better than the companies themselves. And they said everybody likes Labour, so that MUST be true, therefore this poll MUST be false.

I am a longtime left voter but 2013 labour and Greens are just idiots, I can’t support them.
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May 3, 2013 6:51am
RRM

It’s also good to see that the threatened mass exodus of the homophobic vote from National to the Conservatives hasn’t really amounted to anything.
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May 3, 2013 6:55am
bringbackdemocracy

This is the fourth poll to show an increase for the Conservatives, along with TV1, TV3, and Fairfax. Definitely a good trend for New Zealand’s 5th highest polling party, with more support than half of the parties in parliament.
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May 3, 2013 7:15am
RRM

Indeed! Good on Kolun – he’s grown his support from approximately 19/32ths of f*ck all, to today an impressive 5/8ths of f*ck all.
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May 3, 2013 7:28am
Pete George

Conservative Roy Morgan poll results since July last year:

3.0
1.5
0.5
1.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.5
0.5
2.0
2.0
2.0
1.0
1.5
2.0

Doubling that will be very difficult.
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May 3, 2013 7:48am
Redbaiter

“an impressive 5/8ths of f*ck all.”

So why do you need to make so many of your piffling laffing boy comments on the issue?

Worried?

You should be you prog arsehole.
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May 3, 2013 7:50am
Manolo

Now give us the numbers for the beloved UnitedFuture, the whore’s party.
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May 3, 2013 7:57am
Griff

Its the massive swing with around 50% of KB,s conservonutters pledging to vote for colan.
The resulting impact catapults his party over the margin of error.
And proving without doubt that KB,s conservonutters are a massive force in New Zealand politics.
If surge continues unabated they may proudly represent all of 1% of Parliament within the next two election cycles.
Go conlyn and the conservatives.
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May 3, 2013 7:59am
eszett

Worried?

Very much so. Who’s going to provide comic relief if Colin doesn’t make it?
Come on red, Chucky et all, make a bloody effort.
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May 3, 2013 8:09am
Redbaiter

With all the concern from the resident progs, I can’t help getting the feeling they suspect that this poll of only 800+ respondents is somehow inaccurate in respect of minority parties.
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May 3, 2013 8:13am
eszett

Ah yes, reddy, when you don’t like polls, just claim that they are inaccurate. Science, shmience.

With all the concern from the resident conservonutters, I can’t help getting the feeling they pray that this scientific poll of only 800+ respondents is horrendously inaccurate in respect of minority parties.
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May 3, 2013 8:30am
RRM

Laffing – is that anything like laughing?

😆
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May 3, 2013 8:42am
slijmbal

a poll of that size has an approximate margin of error of square root of 800+ divided by 800+

that’s 3 %

The movement is greater than the margin of error but then again the previous poll’s margin of error is also a factor. You need to look at averages and multiple results to get a more accurate picture.

It certainly is a good result for National though.
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May 3, 2013 8:47am
Prince

Hey Clint, come look at this poll. You idiot.
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May 3, 2013 9:13am
Sir Cullen's Sidekick

Prince (25) Says:
May 3rd, 2013 at 9:13 am

Hey Clint, come look at this poll. You idiot.

Bro – Clint has buggered off to Australia!!!
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May 3, 2013 4:57pm
Alan Johnstone

5 votes down for the first comment, but go back and look at the Roy Morgan polls for the last 2 years, they are all over the place.
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May 3, 2013 5:26pm
pollywog

Jeez there’s a lot of dumbfucks getting polled these days eh?
0 1
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May 3, 2013 7:15pm
deadrightkev

UNited Failure never get an increase in polling above 0-0.5% even on a great hair day. Why is that Pete George?
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May 4, 2013 8:11pm
deadrightkev

RB

Rogue polls exist only if its a minor party on the right. The time cant be far away when we see the first signs of panic invitations for cups of tea with Colin. I hope he sticks with the program and tells these spineless progs who worship blandness and mediocrity to take a running jump.
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May 4, 2013 8:17pm

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