Tim MacIndoe – Ham west was marginal seat when he won it, built good majority last time and with current redraw it looks like he has a fairly blue seat
Nikki Kaye – strong population growth in the blue friendly CBD and Grey Lynn disappears
Ruth Dyson – 3500 majority in Dyson favour turns to a 2000 or so paper majority for Nats. A strong candidate for National could take it.
Sue Moroney – Hamilton West loses the rural area BUT takes in top of north Hamilton East and Horsham Downs from Waikato. Ham East loses some solid blue but still blue seat. Hamilton could be one of few urban/city seats that are strong blue.
Jacinda Ardern – will be gutted the Auckland central has lost Grey Lynn, both as it votes red and green, but also as she lives there.
Nicky Wagner – did an astonishing job to win CHCH central last election and the boundaries ensure that is unlikely to happen again – very red now.
Paula Bennett (kind of) – Waitakere seat disappears but long term Upper Harbour looks a good seat for her.
Phil Goff – Mt Roskill becomes almost marginal
Sam Lotu Iiga – will be tough seat to hold with red parts of Tamaki and neighbouring red coming into the seat but Sam is a good local MP and Beaumont has not made much impact as a List MP there.