The Representation Commission has released the proposed new boundaries for the 2014 (and 2017) elections). These are not final. There will be a round of sub-missions and cross-submissions on them, and final boundaries will be announced next year on 17 April. However the proposed boundaries tend to not change massively in the final determination.
The biggest changes are in Auckland and Christchurch:
The number of general electorates in the Auckland region has increased from 23 to 24. Proposed boundary changes have resulted in the creation of two new electorates: Upper Harbour in north Auckland and Kelston in west Auckland. The existing electorate of Waitakere has been replaced as a result of the proposed boundary changes to the Te Atatū and Helensville electorates and the new Kelston electorate.
So Paula is left without a seat, and there are two new electorates.
Major boundary changes in the Christchurch area were required because of significant population movement from Christchurch East, Christchurch Central and Port Hills electorates. At the same time Waimakariri, Wigram and Selwyn have increased beyond the permitted electoral population limit. The three Christchurch electorates that have lost population have been expanded into Waimakariri and Selwyn, with Port Hills proposed to include all of Banks Peninsula, and Wigram to lose Hei Hei to Selwyn.
27 electorates have no change.
Other significant changes include:
- Auckland Central has lost population to Mt Albert at Westmere and Grey Lynn
- Mt Roskill has gained population from Maungakiekie and Epsom in the east and lost population from New Windsor to New Lynn in the west
- Maungakiekie has gained population from Manukau East and Tāmaki
- Hamilton West has lost the western rural area to Taranaki-King Country and gained population from Hamilton East and Waikato at Horsham Downs
- Ōhariu has gained Wadestown from Wellington Central and lost Korokoro and Maungaraki to Hutt South and Normandale to Rimutaka.
Goff’s seat of Mt Roskill could get interesting. The Auckland Central changes are bad for Jacinda Ardern as she now lives outside Auckland Central and loses red voting areas. Maungakiekie may become more marginal for National. Ohariu becomes a more blue seat.