I thought it would be interesting to look at how the four (if Shearer stands) Labour leadership contenders have gone in their respective electorates. This may give some idea of their personal appeal, and also their ability to convince people to party vote Labour.
So I looked at the changes in their local party and electorate votes from 2008 to 2014 (or for Shearer from 2009 for his electorate vote).
This is what has happened:
- David Cunliffe (New Lynn) -4.2%
- Andrew Little (New Plymouth) -10.3%
- Grant Robertson (Wellington Central) -10.7%
- David Shearer (Mt Albert) -13.1%
So New Lynn has actually held up best on the party vote, compared to 2008. The other three electorates have all lost more than 10%.
- Grant Robertson (Wellington Central) +9.8%
- David Cunliffe (New Lynn) +0.5%
- David Shearer (Mt Albert) -4.8%
- Andrew Little (New Plymouth) -15.9%
This indicates that Grant Robertson is very good at increasing his personal vote, but not so the party vote. Cunliffe has held steady, Shearer has declined a bit (but from a by-election high) while Little got 16% less than the former Labour MP in New Plymouth.