The accounts for the first 11 months of the last financial year show that Treasury projections are about as accurate as Eddie the Eagle in ski jumping.
To be fair to Treasury many businesses fail to project their own income correctly, and forecasting how much tax you will collect from hundreds of thousands of businesses is always going to variable.
If this does not reverse in the final month, it will be hilarious considering Andrew Little said that a projected failure to reach surplus was the biggest deception of his lifetime.
Incidentally the OBEGAL (underlying) surplus is $1.176 billion, the overall surplus is $4.6 billion!
It is hard to see the surplus disappearing entirely in the last month, but these things are variable.