Well my post of earlier today proved very accurate, with Malcolm Turnbull a few hours later announcing a challenge, and Abbott calling the vote for tonight.
There are 102 votes in the party room, so you need 52 to win. The Turnbull camp is claiming they have 60, but MPs have been known to say one thing and vote another.
Of significance is that deputy Julie Bishop has also declared no confidence in Tony Abbott. This means if Abbott wins, he loses both Bishop and Turnbull from Cabinet. It is hard to see how the Liberals can win if Abbott remains.
But Turnbull is far more popular with the public and media than with his own colleagues. He may win tonight, but governing will be another challenge.
Either way a political career ends today – Tony Abbott’s or Malcolm Turnbull’s.