What will turnout be?


Despite one less week of voting, turnout is well up on the 2013 asset sales , both in gross terms, and as a percentage of the population. Votes received today yet to be counted.

So turnout so far is 47.4% and might hit 48%. How does that compare with other stand alone referenda. In order the turnout rates have been:

  1. 1995 Firefighters 27.0%
  2. 2013 Asset Sales 45.1%
  3. 2015 Flag 47.4% (with one day to go)
  4. 1992 Electoral System 55.2%
  5. 2009 Smacking 56.1%
  6. 1997 Compulsory Superannuation 80.3%

So the flag referendum is ahead of both the union initated referenda.

Now there is a difference between binding and indicative, but this is only semi-binding in that it is choosing an option, not a final decision. The best comparison is to the 1992 vote to choose an electoral system.

That vote got 55% turnout and the flag referendum looks to be around 48%. Now considering how massively more important the electoral system is than the flag, that’s not a massive gap.

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