Trump in pole position

Trump has won seven, and maybe eight of the 11 states on Super Tuesday. It is hard to see him not ending up with the most delegates at the convention. However he may not get a majority.

The best chance of stopping him is to make it a two horse race. But as Rubio and Cruz both won states, they will both be in until at least Florida. If Rubio loses Florida, he may quit. But even if it becomes a two horse race, some of the votes of candidates dropping out may go to Trump. There is a path to victory for Rubio, and possibly Cruz, but it is a difficult one.

On the Democratic side it is almost all over. Sanders won four out of eleven and will stay in probably until Clinton gets a majority, but there is no credible path for him to beat her, unless she is charged by the FBI.

The current count on the Democratic side is Clinton 984 and Sanders 347. You need 2,383 for a majority. Clinton is 41% of the way there. Sanders would need to win 60% of the remaining delegates.

On the Republican side it is Trump 302, Cruz 142, Rubio 78, Kasich 24 and Carson 8. You need 1,237 to win so Trump is 24% of the way there.

Trump needs to get 49% of the remaining delegates to win. Cruz needs 57%, Rubio 60% and Kasich 63%.

The next dates for the Republicans are:

  • 5th – Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana and Maine
  • 6th – Puerto Rico
  • 8th – Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan and Mississippi
  • 12th – DC and Guam
  • 15th – Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Mariana Islands, North Carolina and Ohio

The 15th is the next really significant date. It is where Rubio may live or die, and possibly the last chance to stop Trump.

Comments (161)

Login to comment or vote