538 forecasts Democrats to take the Senate

Five Thirty Eight has forecast that the Democrats have a 59% chance of taking control of the US Senate.

They predict that:

  • Democrats win Pennsylvania
  • Democrats win New Hampshire
  • Democrats retain Nevada
  • Democrats win Indiana
  • Democrats win Illinois
  • Democrats win Wisconsin

This would give the Democrats a fairly comfortable 52 seats.

Trump is now seen to have a better chance of winning the presidency, than the Republicans retaining the Senate. They have him at between 44% and 48% probability (depending on model) to win the presidency. This is the highest he has been apart from the convention bounce.

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