Five Thirty Eight has released its Senate forecast. At this stage they forecast a 50:50 tie so the Vice-President would determine the balance of power in the Senate. Taking into account the presidential forecast that gives the Democrats a 58% chance of controlling the Senate.
Many seats are close. Their current forecast is:
- Maine – 53% Democrats win
- Iowa – 59% Republicans hold
- North Carolina – 62% Democrats win
- Colorado – 68% Democrats win
- Montana – 68% Republicans hold
- Georgia – 75% Republicans hold
- Alabama – 78% Republicans win
- Arizona – – 78% Democrats win
So Democrats win 4 and lose 1 to give them 50 seats. But you could well get a net gain of just one for the Democrats and you also could get a net gain of five, so result could be 52:58 in either direction.
The Senate election will be very consequential. The House is not competitive this time, so the likely four options after the election are:
- President Trump, Dem House, GOP Senate (status quo)
- President Trump, Dem House, Dem Senate (lame duck)
- President Biden, Dem House, GOP Senate (divided Congress)
- President Biden, Dem House, Dem Senate (Dems can implement much of agenda and appoints Judges)