538 forecasts a tied Senate

Five Thirty Eight has released its Senate forecast. At this stage they forecast a 50:50 tie so the Vice-President would determine the balance of power in the Senate. Taking into account the presidential forecast that gives the Democrats a 58% chance of controlling the Senate.

Many seats are close. Their current forecast is:

  • Maine – 53% Democrats win
  • Iowa – 59% Republicans hold
  • North Carolina – 62% Democrats win
  • Colorado – 68% Democrats win
  • Montana – 68% Republicans hold
  • Georgia – 75% Republicans hold
  • Alabama – 78% Republicans win
  • Arizona – – 78% Democrats win

So Democrats win 4 and lose 1 to give them 50 seats. But you could well get a net gain of just one for the Democrats and you also could get a net gain of five, so result could be 52:58 in either direction.

The Senate election will be very consequential. The House is not competitive this time, so the likely four options after the election are:

  1. President Trump, Dem House, GOP Senate (status quo)
  2. President Trump, Dem House, Dem Senate (lame duck)
  3. President Biden, Dem House, GOP Senate (divided Congress)
  4. President Biden, Dem House, Dem Senate (Dems can implement much of agenda and appoints Judges)

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