Latest US projections

538 has updated their House forecast to give the Democrats an 82% probability to take the House. The average gain projected is 39 seats. They only need 23.

They also have just released their Senate forecast. Here the Democrats are projected to only have a 32% chance to gain control. But that is much higher than it should be considering the Democrats are defending 10 seats where Trump won the popular vote. The Republicans should be looking to gain seats, not lose them.

I’d like the Republicans to hold the Senate so they can continue to confirm judges, and especially any further Supreme Court vacancies.

I’m more agnostic on the House. If the Democrats take it, then at least they can hold Trump to account through committee investigations. They might try to impeach him (which would be a mistake) but would never get a conviction. If the Republican House could actually pass legislation I’d want them to carry on in the majority. But they seem to do very little.

If Pelosi becomes Speaker again at least she makes a good bogey woman for the 2020 election.

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