A rather desperate Andrew Little has released their internal polling from UMR to try and convince people they are really winning.
UMR is a very good company and I often refer people to them, if I can’t do the work. But I will comment on this specific poll as it is vastly different to every other poll published.
They have National at 40%. National has not polled 40% in any public poll since 2006.
They have John Key with net favourability of +6% and Andrew Little with net favourability of +16%. You have to judge this against every public poll than has Little massively behind Key as Preferred Prime Minister and even behind Winston.
Something I often advice when polls differ is to average them. If you did that with these four National would be at 45% and Labour 29%. But note they are done over different time periods.