The table above shows the final polls for the six companies that published during the campaign period. The simple average of them has National and Labour tied. If you average the three who do regular political polling them National is 6% ahead of Labour.
UMR also do polling which is a mixture of public and private. They normally publish their results towards the end of the year. Jacinda Ardern said this morning that UMR has Labour just 1% behind National.
The Curia average of the public polls (which is not the same as Curia’s private polling) has National 4% ahead of Labour. That includes all eight polls from the three main companies during the campaign, with a size and time weighting. As the ONCB poll fluctated so much, that is why this average has it tighter – because it doesn’t just take the last poll from each company.
It will be fascinating to see which poll is closest to the result, and how close any of them are. I’m confident the Newsroom/SSI poll won’t be the closest!