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September 28, 2016 11:00am by David Farrar

Latest poll

The latest Roy Morgan poll is out. As usual it is as bouncy as a kangaroo.

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Comments (52)

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Jigsaw

Frankly National deserve to slide in the polls – if they continue their racist policies then I sincerely hope they slide even further.
13 20
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September 28, 2016 11:05am
- ross411
  
  You’re against the treaty settlements, and the unvoted-on seats on councils for maori, and the rest of the things maori get? I assume you’re voting for Winnie then?
  
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  September 28, 2016 11:14am
  - Jigsaw
    
    I’m against multiple treaty settlements-how about the 5 settlements that Ngati Tahu have had? Also I am against democracy being subverted as part of the settlement process. Maybe you are for such distortions and want the process to continue its distortions and inequalities? Try thinking of what sort of country you will be left with.
    
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    September 28, 2016 11:34am
  - Bob R
    
    NZF is the only option if you are opposed to more race based seats on councils & and think there needs to be a review of immigration levels.
    
    7 3
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    September 28, 2016 12:29pm
- lilman
  
  Cant say I disagree,I have for the last 2 elections supported national,not any more because of the racist policy turn they have done recently.
  
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  September 28, 2016 12:13pm
  - ztev
    
    Are you campaigning againt the seat Federated Farmers have at the Taranaki Regional Council?
    
    2 1
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    September 28, 2016 3:21pm
labrator

The constituency has finally realised that Grebour is the future! That stitch up in Mt Roskill will obviously result in a landslide too.
7 0
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September 28, 2016 11:06am
Manolo

Jeremy Little, aka Andrew Corbyn, could become PM after all!
9 0
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September 28, 2016 11:12am
Hugh Pavletich

NEW ZEALAND GOVERNMENT (DESERVEDLY) GETS HAMMERED IN ROY MORGAN POLL

Posted at … http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2016/09/links-28-september-2016/

It’s not just the low paid who are being squeezed out of Auckland’s housing market, its affecting middle income earners too | interest.co.nz

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/83775/its-not-just-low-paid-who-are-being-squeezed-out-aucklands-housing-market-its

By Greg Ninness

It will now take a typical Auckland couple nearly eight years to save a 20% deposit on their first home, compared to about four years in other main centres, according to Interest.co.nz’s Home Loan Affordability Report.

The report tracks how long it would take typical first home buyers in each region to save a 20% deposit on the REINZ’s lower quartile selling price in their region.

The income calculations assume both partners work full time and earn the median weekly wage for people of their age group (25-29) in each region and are able to save 20% of their take home pay to put towards a deposit. … read more via hyperlink above …

Pollsters Roy Morgan says National Party support is at its lowest level since before 2013 election; now behind potential Labour/ Greens Alliance | interest.co.nz

https://www.interest.co.nz/news/83792/pollsters-roy-morgan-says-national-party-support-its-lowest-level-2013-election-now

Housing campaigner predicts spiralling house prices will be Key’s ‘Waterloo’ | Stuff.co.nz

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/83627043/Housing-campaigner-predicts-spiralling-house-prices-will-be-Keys-Waterloo
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September 28, 2016 11:15am
- starboard
  
  Boring Hugh…BORING…start ya own blog and call it
  Doom and Gloom.com. No one cares Hugh. Go and ask 500 Aucklander’s who own property whether they want house prices to drop or not and come back to me with your answers. I know what it will be.
  Those who are moaning and groaning..tough, tell them to start saving, and save hard. Forget about the latest cellphone and the new car..prioritise Hugh. I, and almost everyone else saved our arses off to get a home…so can the moaners. Along with their full time jobs, get a job stacking shelves at Countdown. Wash dishes in a restaurant..if two of them are doing this they will save a deposit in no time. There’s plenty of good buying still in South Auckland..but no, the grumblers want to live in Epsom, Parnell, Ponsonby first off. Dream away…and stop moaning.
  
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  September 28, 2016 11:38am
  - jonar
    
    No one cares Hugh.
    
    Actually John Key’s polling shows that a large number of Kiwis do care or he wouldn’t have started trying to do something about it.
    
    7 8
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    September 28, 2016 11:57am
    - starboard
      
      Election day will tell all..but I can tell you in advance, JK will roll back in. There is no alternative..and don’t mention liarbgreens, they just don’t have it.
      
      13 4
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      September 28, 2016 12:00pm
      - Hugh Pavletich
        
        Instead of being horrible to such a nice natured Compassionate Conservative, such as myself, it is well past time you selfish Tories gave Prime Minister Key a hurry up on housing issues !
        
        After all … it was the National Party and Mr Key that used me and the Demographia Surveys to help win the 2008 election …
        
        beehive.govt.nz – Bringing better balance to the housing market
        
        https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/bringing-better-balance-housing-market
        
        … and I heaped praise on Mr Key and the National Party soon after …
        
        NZ Government Housing Commitment Applauded | Scoop News
        
        http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU0901/S00331/nz-government-housing-commitment-applauded.htm
        
        New Zealands Pragmatic Political Approach Welcome | Scoop News
        
        http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU0903/S00467/new-zealands-pragmatic-political-approach-welcome.htm
        
        … and you are being horrible to me for Mr Keys failings on housing issues these past 8 years !
        
        Late 2008 Auckland housing was 6.4 times annual household incomes; when Nick Smith was appointed Housing Minister early 2013 6.7 times; now a stratospheric 10.4 times.
        
        Over that period the median house price has doubled from about $420,000 to $840,000.
        
        Just appalling !
        
        If it hits 12 times come the next General Election … like Napoleon Bonaparte 200 years ago being sent to exile to St Helena’s, I expect Mr Key to be sent in to exile in Maui, Hawaii ‘for the rest of his natural life’.
        
        He will have all the time in the world to read and re-read the UK Telegraph article hyperlinked below of Allister Heaths ‘The real ticking time-bomb for the Tories is home ownership.’
        
        What am I supposed to do when he pleads forgiveness ? Advice from Compassionate Conservatives (not the selfish nasty ones) at Kiwiblog would be appreciated.
        
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        September 28, 2016 6:04pm
      - Hugh Pavletich
        
        Mood of the Boardroom: CEOs call for English to sort housing shortage – Business – NZ Herald News
        
        http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11716779
        
        CEOs fear children won’t own homes – Business – NZ Herald News
        
        http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11716804
        
        Mood of the Boardroom: Bosses to Government – act on housing – Business – NZ Herald News
        
        http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11717271
        
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        September 28, 2016 7:18pm
  - waikatogirl
    
    We had to buy a cheap house so opted for the best location for the price we could afford, so it was out in the country.
    We later renovated and sold for a great price and bought a much better residence.
    Cutting out travel, lots of entertainment and the latest technology are ways to save for the home you yearn for
    
    17 2
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    September 28, 2016 12:22pm
  - wreck1080
    
    You are full of yourself.
    
    My house went up 25% last year, and I’m not happy. Why? Because it makes things seriously difficult for my kids in the future.
    
    You are wrong on so many levels. Just check the rise in wages vs the rise in house prices. Sure, interest rates are a bit lower but hardly enough to offset the jump in prices.
    
    I bought a house easily in the 90s. Low income families could afford housing in auckland back then.
    
    There is no chance for low income families now, and the middle income earners are having great difficulty too.
    
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    September 28, 2016 10:12pm
    - Hugh Pavletich
      
      Good on you Wreck108 …
      
      Housing through the decades, what is affordable? | Business | Newshub
      
      http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2016/09/latest_poll-46.html
      
      New Zealand’s homes top an ‘obscene’ $900 billion combined value | Stuff.co.nz
      
      http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/82025712/New-Zealands-homes-top-an-obscene-900-billion-combined-value
      
      New Zealand’s Bubble Economy Is Vulnerable | Hugh Pavletich | Scoop News
      
      http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL1404/S00166/new-zealands-bubble-economy-is-vulnerable-hugh-pavletich.htm
      
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      September 29, 2016 4:59am
burt

Over at the Standard they are calling this a rogue poll !
19 2
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September 28, 2016 11:19am
- Paulus Gnome
  
  Will the little one release the labour internal polling I wonder?
  
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  September 28, 2016 12:51pm
starboard

Meanwhile at Labour party headquarters, phone box on Sandringham rd..

“Its a rogue poll ”

” Our internal polling says…”

” Its not the feeling I get when Im out…”

(” Psst , boss..we are up 8 % ” )

” eh?? aww,..”Thank you NZ, we will sweep into power and show those Tories what a clusterfuck they have made….”
14 2
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September 28, 2016 11:30am
Hugh Pavletich

From late May this year … …

Opinion: John Key’s Govt has failed New Zealand on housing … Newshub

http://www.newshub.co.nz/opinion/opinion-john-keys-govt-has-failed-new-zealand-on-housing-2016052510#axzz49XsDT0NS

From late August this year …

NZ POLITICS DAILY: Politicians are failing on housing | The National Business Review

http://www.nbr.co.nz/opinion/nz-politics-daily-politicians-are-failing-housing

What Allister Heath of the UK Telegraph had to say October last year …

The real ticking time bomb for the Tories is home ownership … Allister Heath … UK telegraph

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/property/11917816/The-real-ticking-time-bomb-for-the-Tories-is-home-ownership.html

The PM’s vision of an aspirational meritocracy will come to nothing if there’s nowhere to live … read more via hyperlinks above …
1 22
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September 28, 2016 12:06pm
dime

it worries me winie is so low.

i really want JK to have to deal with him as punishment for going helen clarke on us.
18 5
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September 28, 2016 12:11pm
- Inandout
  
  Winnie had Helen over a barrel when Labour was in power, because of the explosive information he had on her. He didn’t need to negotiate with her, he just demanded; he has nothing on Key for leverage.
  
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  September 28, 2016 12:21pm
  - mikenmild
    
    What information was that?
    
    6 3
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    September 28, 2016 12:28pm
    - starboard
      
      The bulk of mm’s 25000 plus posts consist of…
      
      Who was…?
      
      What was the.. ?
      
      Can you explain..?
      
      Which one was ..?
      
      Why do you ..?
      
      Zzzzz
      
      10 5
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      September 28, 2016 12:44pm
      - mikenmild
        
        Well, I’m clearly not expecting you to explain anything, starboard.
        
        4 2
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        September 28, 2016 3:50pm
      - Griff
        
        He does know a lot about one subject MM .
        The sexual practices of homosexual men .
        In fact he seems to know more about such things than anyone else on KB.
        I wonder why?
        
        3 4
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        September 28, 2016 3:54pm
      - starboard
        
        Stop it Griff, you will give yourself half an erection.
        We know you suffer from ED.
        
        3 1
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        September 28, 2016 5:03pm
  - dime
    
    all he will have is JK’s need for power.
    
    3 4
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    September 28, 2016 12:31pm
    - Colville
      
      JK has the ultimate tool of revenge tho.
      
      He can say NO to Winnie and inflict Him onto Greebour and see how long that happy threesome lasts!
      
      My pick is that it would be brief and very messy!
      
      3 1
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      September 28, 2016 1:51pm
Notsofast

Maybe selling Auckland to China is catching up with the national party. Buying votes from property investors is treachery of historic proportions. Look at the story today of Chinese with their crooked money scrapping over a piece of absurdly priced Kumeu land. 400 million Chinese wish to live in cities, and a sprinkling of these have destroyed Auckland for youth.
5 4
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September 28, 2016 1:10pm
starboard

“Buying votes from property investors is treachery…”

Link please.
3 0
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September 28, 2016 1:21pm
- Notsofast
  
  A new version of gerry mandering. Those who have shall have more and will not vote for any party but national, common sense has the label on the tin.
  Chinese are playing with fringe suburban land like high stakes poker. Disgusting. They’ve wrecked their country and will wreck ours. They will learn how to become a swing party in a democracy, the only thing they may miss here is their nasty little face masks, prisoners to shoot and their organs to harvest.
  
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  September 28, 2016 1:44pm
Adolf Fiinkensein

David

These Roy Morgan people do your industry’s credibility no favours.
4 1
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September 28, 2016 1:34pm
- ztev
  
  Now they are doing it monthly rather than bi monthy or fortnightly their poll is more credible.
  national is just much the same place with RM as it was 4 months ago .
  
  Other pollsters are hardly ever bothering, every 2 or 3 months.
  
  The tearing at hair over how this poll isnt credible is a joy to see. I can send a bag of ashes if you like
  
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  September 28, 2016 2:42pm
  - Adolf Fiinkensein
    
    Yes, you’re right. Now they are hopelessly wrong more often than they were before.
    
    1 0
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    September 28, 2016 3:07pm
  - labrator
    
    Can you link to a single comment that comes remotely close to “tearing at hair over how this poll isn’t credible”. I looked back and most seem to be about National deserving it…
    
    0 1
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    September 28, 2016 3:58pm
PhilP

The RM Poll is up and down faster than a Whores draws.
3 0
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September 28, 2016 1:40pm
- ztev
  
  NO its not ! This is what they did say
  
  “During September support for National fell for the second straight month, by 4.5% to 41.5%
  
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  September 28, 2016 2:45pm
  - Captain Mainwaring
    
    Trevor, you might want to check the same poll in 2013. National and Labour were even closer together. with Labour on about 36%.
    And what happened the following November?
    
    4 0
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    September 28, 2016 3:14pm
    - ztev
      
      Changing leaders isnt allways as good as it might seem. Ask the Liberals in Australia ?
      
      0 4
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      September 28, 2016 3:19pm
      - labrator
        
        Why look that far away, how many AH (After Helen) leaders is Labour on now?
        
        4 0
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        September 28, 2016 3:52pm
      - Happychappy
        
        Why worry Trev you wont be there to forfill your dream of being the speaker. The voter is not as stupid as you and your excuse for a leader think
        
        3 1
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        September 28, 2016 4:13pm
      - Adolf Fiinkensein
        
        Real Liberals in Australia knew it was a con job Trev and were have been proved right.
        
        2 0
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        September 28, 2016 5:55pm
BeaB

Vote NZF? Get Winston as PM and a NZF/Labour Govt with a few crumbs for the Greens?
So you are really cross enough with John Key to inflict that on us?
Some of you are deluded.
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September 28, 2016 3:44pm
Hugh Pavletich

ARE THEY SLOWLY WAKING UP IN GREAT BRITAIN ABOUT AFFORDABLE HOUSING ?

WE MUST LET THERESA MAY BUILD MORE HOUSES – OR THE RAGE OF THE RENTERS COULD TEAR BRITAIN APART … ALLISTER HEATH … UK TELEGRAPH
… h/t LR …

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/28/we-must-let-theresa-may-build-more-houses–or-the-rage-of-the-re/

Every Prime Minister, when first appointed, pledges to fight against injustice. Some deliver; most don’t. If Theresa May is serious in her desire to govern for the have-nots as well as just the haves, she must tackle one of the greatest injustices of our our time: Britain’s horrendous, corrosive housing crisis, the one issue which could yet bring a populist, hard-left Corbynite party into power at some point in the 2020s. … read more via hyperlink above …

PM THERESA MAY – FIRST SPEECH … BBC

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FDyZ8trge2E

WHAT ARE THE BRITISH LEARNING FROM NEW ZEALANDERS ?

PERFORMANCE URBAN PLANNING – HUGH PAVLETICH

http://www.performanceurbanplanning.org/
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September 29, 2016 12:23pm
Hugh Pavletich

Auckland building consents could be delayed as appeals against the new Unitary Plan grind their way through the courts | interest.co.nz

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/83813/auckland-building-consents-could-be-delayed-appeals-against-new-unitary-plan-grind

Auckland Council is likely to make its new Unitary Plan only partially operative on Thursday as appeals against the plan work their way through the courts.

Penny Pirrit, the council’s Director of Regulatory Services, said an assessment of the 106 appeals lodged with the Environment Court or High Court found that most of them related just to specific sites or provisions of the plan, which meant large parts of the Regional Policy Statement, the Coastal Plan and some parts of the District Plan could be made operative. … read more via hyperlink above …
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September 29, 2016 1:45pm
Hugh Pavletich

Housing crisis eroding support for National, say Greens

http://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/news/politics/housing-crisis-eroding-support-for-national-say-greens/

National’s political opponents are warning that the housing issue will continue to burn them, and inaction will end up hurting businesses and workers.

The NZ Herald’s Mood of the Boardroom survey, which collected information from more than 100 business leaders throughout the country, has found housing is one of their top three concerns.

72 percent said they were concerned that younger New Zealanders were being priced out of Auckland’s residential market.

On average, executives ranked housing affordability 6.69 out of 10, on a scale where 10 was extremely concerning.

Green Party co-leader Metiria Turei said that shows the crisis is now even eroding National’s core voter support.

“This is a serious political problem for National, but just for ordinary New Zealanders it’s a serious daily problem. People can’t get decent housing today, and they need it today.”

Ms Turei said the business community speaking out may finally prompt the Government to act.

“Recognizing the threat of the housing crisis to New Zealand’s economy, and I think their voice on this is really important.”
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September 29, 2016 2:04pm
Hugh Pavletich

Allister Heath, Deputy Editor of the UK Telegraph, obviously had an interesting / entertaining formative schooling in France … as he told the UK think tank the IEA on the occasion of its 60th Birthday mid last year …

https://iea.org.uk/multimedia/video/iea-at-60-allister-heath
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September 29, 2016 4:07pm
Hugh Pavletich

HOUSING: NEW ZEALAND LABOUR’S PHIL TWYFORD IS BRILLIANT !

… LISTEN UP FOLKS ! …

PHIL TWYFORD: TAKING DOWN NATIONAL … NEWSTALK ZB

http://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/audio/phil-twyford-taking-down-national/

Labour MP Phil Twyford has been given a key strategic role as his party prepares to campaign to unseat the current National government.

He talks to Larry Williams on the Mike Hosking Breakfast about how Labour and the other opposition parties will go about changing the government.

In particular, he says Labour will focus hard on housing, and housing affordability as a key issue. … LISTEN AND READ VIA HYPERLINK ABOVE …

TWYFORD ON HOUSING … SPEECH … NZ PARLIAMENT

http://www.inthehouse.co.nz/video/45199

Phil Twyford – New Zealand Labour Party

http://www.labour.org.nz/philtwyford
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September 29, 2016 6:49pm
Hugh Pavletich

THE ERA OF ROBOTS IN CONSTRUCTION NEEAR, SAYS UK CONSTRUCTION BOSS … UK TELEGRAPH / MISHTALK

… Obviously …poorly governed / land strangled (they go hand in hand) urban areas will get severely punished …

The era of robots: thousands of builders to lose jobs as machines take over, says construction boss … UK Telegraph

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/09/27/the-era-of-robots-thousands-of-builders-to-lose-jobs-as-machines/

Robots Will Soon Take Over Building London Skyscrapers Says CEO of Large UK Construction Firm | MishTalk

https://mishtalk.com/2016/09/28/robots-will-soon-build-skyscrapers/

Skyscrapers in the City of London could soon be built by robots rather than by people, according to the boss of one of the UK’s biggest construction firms.

The result would be huge productivity gains as more work could be done by fewer people – but also mass layoffs as traditionally labour-intensive construction projects hire fewer and fewer staff.

“We’re moving into the era of the robots,” said Alison Carnwath, the chairman of Land Securities, the £8.2bn FTSE 100 construction company.

Speaking at the Institute of Directors’ annual convention, the veteran businesswoman said the pace of technological change has taken her by surprise. … read more via hyperlink above …

Creative destruction – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creative_destruction

Creative destruction refers to the incessant product and process innovation mechanism by which new production units replace outdated ones. It was coined by Joseph Schumpeter (1942), who considered it ‘the essential fact about capitalism’.
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September 30, 2016 2:20am
Pateke

Boring, Hugh
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September 30, 2016 9:30am

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